San Francisco Treat? 49ers land Jerick McKinnon

Talk about cashing in on a big season! The 49ers have signed Jerick McKinnon to a four-year $30 million dollar contract. The contract will make him the fourth-highest paid running back in the league.

You know the drill by now. We’re going to examine what this means for McKinnon as well as the team around him.

Jerick McKinnon, RB SF

The deal is a bit surprising for a running back such as Jerick McKinnon who only has one season of above 800 yards from scrimmage. However, you do need to remember that he was in a timeshare Latavius Murray, Matt Asiata, or Adrian Peterson every season of his career. Some may use this to knock him saying he couldn’t win the job outright, however, McKinnon has certainly shown flashes of potential.

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There are also those who are quick to remind us that McKinnon is an athletic freak. He ranked in the 80th percentile or above in almost every combine drill for running backs, except for the ones that were size-related. A comparison I’ve been hearing often on Twitter is comparing McKinnon to Devonta Freeman. Both guys are on the smaller side, but as you all know Freeman has found plenty of NFL success.

While I’m not sure that McKinnon and Freeman are comparable, I do believe that McKinnon will find a good amount of success in San Francisco. Primarily because I believe Kyle Shanahan is an awesome offensive coach. This tweet from Graham Barfield only serves to further illustrate that point.

In HOU, WAS, CLE, ATL, and SF from 2008-17, Kyle Shanahan’s offenses have ranked inside of the top-16 in Team RB PPR Points scored in 8-of-10 seasons. Top-eight in 5-of-10.

Jerick McKinnon coming.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) March 14, 2018

Instead of posting the ADP chart for McKinnon, I’m going to share this tweet from Curtis Patrick. Over 1000 people voted thinking that he would be at minimum the RB18 for dynasty purposes. That doesn’t seem that out of the realm of possibility, however, keep in mind that close to another 300 people voted that he would be an RB1 for dynasty purposes. This is sure to be an unpopular opinion with the hype on Fantasy Twitter, but if anyone is willing to pay top-12 prices for McKinnon I’d cash out.

Where will you rank Jerick McKinnon in dynasty now that he’s being paid a top-5 salary as Kyle Shanahan’s lead RB in San Francisco?

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) March 14, 2018

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF

Many people are on board the Jimmy Garoppolo hype boat, and it’s probably not because of how handsome he is. You can say what you want about quarterback wins, but when he was on the field last season he looked the part of the franchise quarterback. This was while his top options including names such as Marquise Goodwin, Carlos Hyde, and Trent Taylor.

I happen to like those three guys, but I recognized the 49ers were going to do everything in their power to get Jimmy GQ more weapons. Everyone presumed they would trade for Jarvis Landry when those rumors swirled, or sign Allen Robinson, or even Sammy Watkins. When they failed to do any of those things you could hear the collective groans from Garoppolo owners everywhere.

However, they should be excited about the addition of Jerick McKinnon to the backfield. It’s easy to figure out why. He may not be a big play threat down the field, but Garoppolo can still get points just from throwing screens to McKinnon. Last season, Carlos Hyde caught 59 of 88 targets for 350 yards and no touchdowns. There’s reason to believe that McKinnon can improve on those numbers which would, in turn, help Jimmy GQ’s fantasy scores.

For dynasty purposes, Garoppolo’s ADP has continually risen all off-season. As of DLF March ADP, he was already going as the QB6 overall. You might think that’s a bit steep for a guy who averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game in games which he attempted at least 20 passes. Yet, that would have made him the QB13 on a point per game basis last season and as we already covered he didn’t have elite weapons to throw to. If you believe in the talent, you’ll want to buy now before the 49ers add even more weapons for him to throw to.

George Kittle, TE SF

You may not think that the signing of McKinnon has much barring on what will happen with George Kittle. You’re probably right, but it’s worth noting that in the passing game they’ll both be involved in the short game. The positive for Kittle is that McKinnon is relatively small, so besides the occasional screen, he isn’t going to vulture too many red zone looks from the bigger tight end.

Kittle’s ADP has continued to grow this offseason, likely in correlation with the belief that Garoppolo is a star in the making. The longer the 49ers go without adding any competition for Kittle, the better it looks for him. I would caution you from getting too excited. His March ADP already has him as the TE9, ahead of guys like Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham. Not to get too punny, but that may be a case of pouring the kettle before the tea is warm enough.

Trent Taylor, WR SF

I like Trent Taylor playing out of the slot, but McKinnon may siphon some looks that would otherwise have gone Taylor’s way. The good news for Taylor fans is that there were so many different targeted receivers for the 49ers last season that all they need to do is consolidate a bit and both Jerick McKinnon and Taylor can see a healthy dose of volume. I just believe the McKinnon signing takes away a little bit of the volume that may have otherwise gone Taylor’s way.

There’s even more good news for Taylor fans. He is currently dirt cheap for dynasty purposes. Maybe it’s because people thought that the team was going to bring in Jarvis Landry, but he’s currently going 200th overall. You could do a lot worse for a flier.

Matt Breida, RB SF

Easily the biggest loser from this signing. It’s not as if he is much bigger than McKinnon to play as a nice complementary piece. It’s interesting because his rookie season was decent. He managed 645 yards on only 141 touches. You know whose rookie season that’s comparable to? McKinnon who managed 673 yards on 140 touches. It’s a cool little factoid, but I have a hard time seeing Breida getting to 100 touches again with McKinnon in the fold. If you own him, you may want to try to sell him to the McKinnon owner as a handcuff just in case.

Marquise Goodwin, WR SF

You may find yourself wondering why I haven’t talked more in-depth about Marquise Goodwin. The reason is that McKinnon has little impact on Goodwin. They are completely different players, and if anything, it should be a lateral move for Goodwin from Carlos Hyde to McKinnon.

It’s not a well-kept secret, but Goodwin was electric for fantasy purposes when Garoppolo took over. Between weeks 13-15, he finished as the WR13, WR19, and WR5 in PPR formats. He’s currently going in the 11th round and is looking like a nice buy candidate after the 49ers just gave him an extension. Just remember, Kyle Shanahan is the same guy who made Taylor Gabriel fantasy relevant for a stretch.

Pierre Garcon, WR SF

Just like Goodwin before him, this move has little impact on Pierre Garcon. The only reason I’m even mentioning him is that it often feels like he is the forgotten man for this offense. Don’t forget about him. He may be coming off an injury and entering his age-32 season, but last season he played eight games all with C.J. Beathard throwing him the ball and had three top-20 PPR finishes. He still has something left in the tank for contending teams.

*This article borrows from pro-football-reference.com and ffstatistics.com

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