Editor’s Note: I pride myself in coming up with fun headlines and was very close to going to with “Prince Albert in a Tuna Fish Can” for this one today. For future reference, even Ken Kelly has his limits.
Editor’s Note #2: This article posted right before the Dolphins agreed to terms with Danny Amendola. We’ll examine the ramifications of that signing as well.
Albert Wilson has agreed to terms on a three-year contract for $24 million with the Miami Dolphins. The move makes sense as Miami was likely looking for extra help in the slot after trading Jarvis Landry away to the Browns earlier this week. While it’s unlikely Wilson will be able to provide the level of success in the short passing game Landry did (few can as he posted a record 400 catches in his first four seasons), he looks like an above average replacement for the role with interesting athletic ability and recent production numbers to be more fantasy relevant than he has been recently.
Let’s take a closer look at the newest Dolphin as we begin what will be an onslought of free agency articles and breakdowns this week in the next few days.
Albert Wilsons ADP Chart*
*As a reminder, ADP charts available on every DLF player page. You can view Wilson’s here.
Since 2014, we see Wilson’s ADP hit its apex at 155.67 in March of 2015. He has recently dropped out of the ADP rankings, going undrafted (outside of the top 241 players) this March. With the trade, it’s a near certainty his value starts to increase. Anyone who has kept him at the back of their roster can look to either keep him and see just how high it will climb or trade him for an immediate value return.
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Standing 5’9” tall and weighing in at 202 lbs, Wilson is a stocky, rugged receiver who fits the mold of a versatile weapon. With 4.43 speed in the 40 yard dash, his speed is real and actually shows up on the field. He has been above average according to Josh Hermsmeyer’s FUPA metric at every depth of target. FUPA measures g a players on field average max speed compared.
*Albert Wilson’s 2016 FUPA, Chart form airyards.com
In 2017, he was targeted heavily in the slot with an aDOT of 6.50. He was remarkably efficiency with his 61 targets measuring a RACR of 1.38 for the whole season and a catch rate of 69%. Simply put, when put to work, Wilson was efficient and highly productive for the Chiefs in 2017. This led to his “breakout” season of 42 receptions, 554 yards and three touchdowns.
While we can’t predict Wilson to be as efficient or #Elite as Jarvis Landry in Miami, I think Wilson is a very smart investment for the Dolphins. On paper, he looks like he could excel in a similar role as Landry. I’m excited for his potential and think his upside value is somewhere between WR20 and WR36. He could well be a stable floor player pushing for WR2 status on fantasy teams, or a spot starter capable of flex value.
Besides being productive last year and being an intriguing athlete, Albert Wilson was also a College mega-producer. He was the first player to be invited to the combine from Georgia State, and while he went undrafted, I still think the Chiefs lucked into a huge value. Wilson was used as a versatile tool for his college team working short and down the field when needed, which should be a perfect fit for his new team in Miami.
He has learned a lot while in the league, as evidence by his increased production in 2017. When players produce large amounts of their college team’s market share, even at “smaller” schools, it’s a good indication of natural talent. While thinking of him as “raw” or “underdeveloped” for the NFL level is fair, I think four years has likely cured him of these woes.
I expect him to excel in his new position. The only question is how much of a position will be given to excel in.
Effects on the Team
Devante Parker’s ADP Chart*
Devante Parker’s ADP has taken a significant dive in recent months. The arrival of Kenny Stills itself didn’t have much of an impact, instead it’s likely his continued failure to live up to his first round expectations yet again that has cost Parker. With his continuing struggles and the addition of yet another efficient receiver (with decent wheels), this could be the final nail in Parker’s ADP coffin.
Targets will not be concentrated for him to immunize his production with volume. After three years of disappointing production, it’s unlikely he will suddenly become more efficient on a lower, more reasonable distribution of targets, either. The time to sell on Parker has come and gone and dynasty owners are likely stuck in “wait and see” mode yet again with Parker.
Kenny Stills ADP Chart*
Kenny Stills’ ADP has been steadily rising since the end of the 2017 season. Encouraged by his production and above average efficiency at most depths of target, I’ve been on the bandwagon myself. I think it’s fair to continue to be hopeful. It was unlikely Stills would ever switch roles and be the main beneficiary of the vacated targets left by Landry. But even If Wilson takes the majority of them, a certain increase for both Parker and Stills is reasonable to expect.
Ryan Tannehill’s ADL Chart*
Ryan Tannehill is not liked by the dynasty community. I think we all know why. However, let me put my head in the lion’s mouth for a second and suggest that he’s not actually been that bad. Outside of solid yardage numbers and counting stats (not to mention providing enough value to make Kenny Stills, Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry a mix of must-starts-to-interesting), he has also shown improvement over time.
*This chart is my own based on data from fantasyadhd.com
PACR is a fairly new efficiency metric so you may not be familiar with it but it is also a lot more stable and predictive of quarterback performance compared to more standard measures like AY/A and ANY/A.
The blue line is the average PACR for every quarterback with 30 or more attempts in each year. Tannehill has shown the ability to be above average and his last three years have a steady trend of improvement.
Tannehill has been semi-forgotten about while sitting out with injury for the 2018 season. Outside of the Dolphins making an unexpected move at the position around the draft, I think Tannehill’s lowered ADP and the – perhaps under the radar ability – for Wilson to fill in a significant chunk of Landry’s role, might increase the value of the converted wide receiver’s signal caller given his current price.
In sum, since we were down on Parker before Wilson signed, we should continue to be. And since we were up on Stills before the Wilson signing, we also should continue to be after it.
Albert Wilsons’s arrival is more proof that Stills and Parker’s roles will continue instead of a signal they will change. A small bump for each established player on the team is reasonable to expect. Wilson should be drafted and valued more than he has been latterly in Dynasty.
I think Wilson will be a solid buy in fantasy buy right now up until his ADP rises behind the expectation of a high end WR3 in fantasy. Tannehill has shown increasing improvement at the quarterback position and an affinity to target the area of the field where Wilson excelled at last year.
While I don’t’ expect Wilson to become Jarvis Landry, I would expect him to do well with what he gets.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK