2018 Coaching Carousel: Indianapolis Colts

Ryan Finley Posted On March 13, 2018

If you ask me, the importance of coaching changes is one of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football. It’s not that we’re ignorant of coaches and what effect they can have, but rather that we tend to paint with very broad strokes and work in generalities. We operate on assumptions like “the New Orleans Saints have a good passing offense, I want a piece of that” or “I want any player Aaron Rodgers is targeting.”

While these things may be true, all too often they are retrospective analysis – we find out too late that the Los Angeles Rams, for instance, are now a really good offensive team.

In this series, I’ll take a close look at the major coaching changes throughout the league. My goal is to provide a little more context of what to expect out of the new regimes and hopefully help you find some angles to attack in your leagues this off-season.

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Regardless of the situation, your past performance, injuries or anything else some things flat get head coaches fired. Going 8-8, 8-8 and 4-12 in successive seasons in Indianapolis is one such thing. Chuck Pagano received no pass for Andrew Luck’s injuries, which were a huge factor in the Colts’ lack of success the past couple of seasons.

The fact is that the Colts were supposed to be built to win with a quarterback like Luck at the helm, and Pagano just never made it happen. His first three years at the helm were productive and featured a team getting better and better, but then the wheels just flat came off, so the brass in Indy said goodbye to Chuck.

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The Coaches

Well, that was sure interesting, wasn’t it? There’s only one name in my ocean of notes for these articles that is crossed out, and that’s Josh McDaniels. While this could have been a total travesty, I think the Colts came out in decent shape given the circumstances. Frank Reich was still available, and they snapped the former Philadelphia offensive coordinator up to fill their unexpectedly vacant head coach position. In the end, the Colts were able to stick with their plan to hire an offensive-minded coach to try to steer the team back into offensive splendor. Interestingly, Reich has deep ties to the Colts, as he spent his first six years in coaching with the organization. Well, now he’s back home, and he’s driving the bus.

But what will Reich’s offense look like? It’s hard to say for sure. Though he has spent time as an offensive coordinator, both in San Diego and in Philly, he didn’t get the chance to call plays in either place. He’s been more of an offensive architect in a collaborative system than the guy running the whole offensive show. His former boss Doug Pederson in Philly called the plays, and word is he was also very flexible in terms of working with all the offensive minds on the team. Reich has indicated he will work collaboratively with his staff as well. I would expect we’ll see multiple formations and personnel, along with some RPOs (run/pass options). It’ll be interesting to see how Andrew Luck handles the RPO, but I’m sure he can handle it with his athleticism and talent.

Reich brought in Nick Sirianni to be his offensive coordinator. Sirianni spent the last five seasons in the Chargers organization, and the last two as their wide receivers coach. Sirianni has spent time as a QB coach, WR coach and offensive assistant. Keenan Allen did have a career year in 2017 under Sirianni. Like Reich, Sirianni has never called plays before at the NFL level. I expect they will work together on the offense, but it’s hard to say what Sirianni’s philosophy might be.

The Colts’ offensive line has been very poor in pass protection, and keeping Andrew Luck clean will be a priority. Dave DeGuglielmo was put in place while the Colts still expected to hire McDaniels, but the former Patriots line coach will take the job in Indianapolis. Hopefully he can improve the line’s pass protection, but he hasn’t had the most success as the main offensive line coach in the past.

The Players

I don’t want to talk about Andrew Luck much. We all know the situation. I believe he could really flourish in a creative system like what Reich might be bringing to town, but job one is that shoulder. Let’s just hope he can play this season, huh?

As far as the running back position, it’s in flux. The Colts are said to be letting the venerable Frank Gore walk this off-season and find another team. That leaves a host of players who could conceivably get some playing time. Marlon Mack, Robert Turbin, Matt Jones and the ever popular castaway Christine Michael. I really don’t know which dart you’d want to throw here, but I feel like Mack at least hasn’t completely disappointed thus far. There’s the whole draft thing coming up, as well.

T.Y. Hilton will still be around in 2018, and he’s certainly hoping Luck will return in 2018. I could see his athleticism being a great fit in Reich’s offensive scheme. Donte Moncrief, who dynasty owners have been waiting for “to arrive” for some time now, is a free agent and could end up elsewhere. He does have the same athletic profile he’s always had that is so compelling, so maybe he finally could put it together under a new regime. Outside of that, there are a lot of question marks at wide receiver.

The Eagles certainly featured the tight end prominently, so perhaps we’ll see more production there in Indy. Jack Doyle could build on a solid 2017 potentially. The sleeper Erik Swoope is still around as well.

The Bottom Line

Or should I call this section “The Shoulder?” That’s really what it’s all about here, isn’t it? The Colts will sink or swim based on Luck’s health, there’s no two ways about it. Jacoby Brissett had some moments, and he showed he has talent, but it’s still really about one Andrew Luck. And although I like the hire of Frank Reich, I’m a little worried that neither Reich nor new OC Sirianni has ever called plays before. Even the guys who are “good” at calling plays can have a tough time at it, and I’d be nervous not having anyone with real experience there.

With those things in mind, I don’t think I’ll be investing in the Colts much right now, unless I find a Luck owner who just flat wants out. I also might take a shot at Marlon Mack if I can get him really cheap.

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