2017 Rookie IDP Focus: Jarrad Davis

Tom Kislingbury

Jarrad Davis was plenty of people’s top rookie LB last season but (spoiler alert) he ended up disappointing. Part of that was simply our consistently overoptimistic analysis of rookie’s potential but he was still a miss for much of the IDP world.

Background

After initially committing to Auburn, Davis ended up going to Florida and playing in four seasons although he only managed 38 total games in that time with double-digit teams in just one year.

In his college career, he managed a total of 106 solo tackles and 95 assists. Those 201 total tackles are a decent volume number and fairly similar to Reuben Foster’s. Although we have seen some college players destroy those numbers.

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An indicator of a potential problem could be seen in Davis’ coverage production. Across 38 games, he managed just nine passes defended and a solitary interception. Against the sort of quarterback play you see in college I’d really like to see some more evidence of ability to disrupt the passing game.

Playing time

jarrad davis

In the first seven games Davis played in he averaged 65 snaps which was pretty impressive. He missed a couple through injury but it certainly seemed that the Lions were true to their word and wanted to play Davis as an every-down defensive general.

However, later on in the season, the Lions seemed to decide Davis could not be that guy. In weeks 11 through 16, Tahir Whitehead was installed as the middle linebacker and out-snapped Davis in each and every week. That is clearly worrying but again we do tend to think rookies are much better than they actually are.

To prove the point Jarrad Davis played a total of 828 defensive snaps. The only rookie LB to play more than that was Kendell Beckwith with his 850. Davis missed two games entirely through injury and came so close so I’m fairly comfortable.

Past playing time is slightly less of an indicator than normal because of the new coaching staff in place but I think we can assume that the Patriots link between Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia will ensure that players drafted in 2017 will still be appropriate.

Primary area

When Davis went to the Lions, the IDP community instantly forgave his NFL weaknesses in the hope that he would simply rack up tackles. In the end, he managed to compile 96 total tackles consisting of 65 solos and 31 assists. That 96 ranked at 23rd amongst inside linebackers. Jon Bostic, Karlos Dansby, and Bernardrick McKinney finished in the same area as him.

That’s clearly not good for anyone hoping for elite production but we’ve already pointed out he did miss some time. In terms of efficiency, Davis managed a tackle on 11.6% of his snaps. 36 other LBs managed a higher percentage of that (including only players with 500 or more snaps).

None of these figures are elite. But actually, I’m quite comforted by them all. In a season where he clearly had some growing pains, he put up OK numbers. He’s not where we’d like him to be right now but he’s certainly within striking distance.

Secondary focus

Where Davis really needs to improve is in the passing game. In the preseason I remember watching him go up against the Patriots and being absolutely tortured by their slot receivers. That’s a big ask for any LB let alone a rookie but if an LB can’t cover space inside in the NFL, he’s a real problem.

Lo and behold Davis’s ability in coverage was a real problem. He was slow, he struggled with quickness and he was abused in several games. Tahir Whitehead was one of the worst LBs in the league in 2016 in coverage so for the Lions to think he was an upgrade over Davis was telling. In terms of statistics, Davis was targeted 56 times and gave up 46 completions for 476 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers are pretty similar to Zach Brown and Lawrence Timmons. Neither of whom are known as good players in space.

Davis put his hands on the ball four times. He managed three batted passes and an interception. That meant he had a coverage play on 0.5% of his defensive snaps. Only 24 LBs (with 500 snaps or more) had a better ratio than that. Davis was in the same ballpark as Karlos Dansby, Wesley Woodyard, and Christian Kirksey.

Moving forward

It seems pretty clear that Jarrad Davis really will be the top guy going into his second season. Assuming Matt Patricia runs a similar scheme to the one he did in New England, there’s really only one productive inside linebacker role to be filled. We IDP degenerates like to fantasize about Jalen Reeves-Martin becoming a relevant player but can you tell me the last time the Patriots produced tow fantasy-relevant inside ‘backers? It hasn’t happened often because of the focus on discipline and responsibility.

I expect Davis to be the man in possession of that spot unless he shows absolutely no sign of improvement. The Lions (as with every NFL team) have pressing needs and will likely give Davis at least one more season.

In terms of projections, I’ve got Davis currently in for 795 snaps, 59 solos, and 36 assists.

Those numbers are all around the same as he managed as a rookie. This seems disappointing even to me but given all the factors at play here I’m expecting better play in NFL terms but no big jump in terms of individual statistical production.

Thanks for reading.

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tom kislingbury