Nammour’s Notes: Pre-Combine Rookie Quarterback Rankings and Tiers

Joseph Nammour Posted On March 2, 2018

When it comes to quarterbacks in dynasty formats, upside is the name of the game. This is important to keep in mind when reading through my rankings below.

I’ve included where I’d select each player in 12-team leagues in parentheses. The notation is as follows: (overall rank on my big board; 1QB leagues; superflex leagues).

Note: I tend to devalue the position in single-quarterback leagues, which is why they may appear lower than they should be. I recognize that quarterbacks are almost always the cheapest they’ll ever be during the rookie draft, so I am more likely to select one if I don’t already have a long-term option at the position. Otherwise, I usually pass on them altogether.

So without further ado, here are my pre-combine top ten incoming rookie quarterbacks for dynasty purposes. My evaluations of these players on tape slightly differ from these rankings, which I’ll explain in their blurbs below.

Tier 1

1. LAMAR JACKSON, Louisville, JR (#20; 2.08; 1.03)

Lamar Jackson might not be the best quarterback in this class on film, but he’s by far my favorite quarterback for fantasy purposes due to his ability to dominate on the ground. Jackson and Josh Allen have the highest upside in this class, but Jackson is the better athlete and the better passer at this point in their development. His landing spot will have a major impact on how I rank him, but he sits atop my rankings for now.

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Tier 2

2. JOSH ROSEN, UCLA, JR (#31; 3.07; 1.04)

3. BAKER MAYFIELD, Oklahoma, SR (#32; 3.08; 1.05)

4. SAM DARNOLD, USC, r-SO (#40; 4.04; 1.07)

Rosen and Mayfield are in a virtual tie for me. When it comes to production, I prefer Mayfield’s efficiency – but Rosen will be selected higher in the NFL draft and has far more upside due to his natural talent. I think they’re both relatively “safe” prospects.

Darnold rounds out this tier. He’s also incredibly gifted, but he has some mechanical flaws that really concern me. However, his flashes are All-Pro level, and some team will select him early in the first round hoping they can hone his talent into a franchise passer.

Tier 3

5. JOSH ALLEN, Wyoming, JR (#47; 4.11; 2.02)

6. MASON RUDOLPH, Oklahoma State, SR (#54; 5.06; 2.06)

Allen’s upside is through the roof. The reason I place him further down this list is because I don’t think he’s actually a good prospect due to his inconsistency, inaccuracy, and inferior production compared to others in this class. There’s a chance he hits – and that chance alone is worth a flier late in drafts – but he’s not someone I’m actively targeting.

I actually like Rudolph more than most and certainly prefer him to Allen as a prospect. Unlike Allen, Rudolph’s production was otherworldly. He’s a good athlete, but his arm is limited – particularly when comparing him to some of the others in this class. In my opinion, his ceiling is a mid-range QB2, but one that can hold that value for a long time.

Tier 4

7. KYLE LAULETTA, Richmond, SR (N/A; N/A; 3.08)

8. LUKE FALK, Washington State, SR (N/A; N/A; 3.12)

Lauletta is someone who has been slowly been gaining traction among scouting circles on Twitter. He’s accurate, mobile, and intelligent. He doesn’t have a strong arm and tends to struggle against pressure, but he could turn into a player like Alex Smith – which, as 2017 showed, has value even in 1QB leagues.

Falk – meh. I don’t see it with this guy, unfortunately. He doesn’t have a great arm, he’s slow to read the field, rarely throws downfield, and turns the ball over a lot. He’s probably going to go on the second day of the draft, and landing spot could potentially change my mind on his outlook a bit.

Tier 5

9. RILEY FERGUSON, Memphis, SR (N/A; N/A; 4.08)

10. MIKE WHITE, Western Kentucky, r-SR (N/A; N/A; 4.10)

Ferguson had good production, and he strikes me as someone who’d be a better fantasy option than real-life option (see Bortles, Blake). He’s athletic and has good tools, but his release is clunky and could use significant refinement.

Mike White somehow rushed for -268 yards, which is actually impressive. I think he’s scheme-dependent, which obviously isn’t a positive for someone who requires some work at the NFL level. He struggles when his first read is locked down, but the physical tools are certainly appealing.

Watch List

KYLE ALLEN, Houston, r-JR

KURT BENKERT, Virginia, SR

CHASE LITTON, Marshall, JR

Here’s a table of their production from their final year of school (2017 season). This wasn’t their best year statistically for many of these prospects, but it made for a common denominator and an easy way for the casual observer to compare box score impacts.