20/20: Derrius Guice
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we will be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2018 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name – Derrius Guice
2.) College – LSU
3.) Height/Weight – 5’10’, 224 lbs
4.) Birth date – 06/21/97 (20)
5.) Class – Junior
6.) College stats – 2015: 51 carries, 436 yards, and three touchdowns. Five receptions, 20 yards. 2016: 183 carries, 1,387 yards, and 15 touchdowns plus nine receptions, 106 yards, one touchdown. 2017: 237 carries, 1,251 yards, and 11 touchdowns. 18 receptions, 124 yards, two touchdowns
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
7.) NFL Draft round projection – Late first/early second. A lot of recent mocks have him pegged for the beginning of the second round, but there is still a chance he could hear his name called in the first.
8.) Current NFL comp – Guice’s running style reminds me of a young Frank Gore and Ray Rice. Neither had elite speed, but both were very shifty and fast enough to make big plays. They were powerful backs with lower centers of gravity who had exceptional contact balance. Like Guice, these traits allowed them to break numerous tackles and rack up yards after contact. Guice’s balance and ability to break tackles is also reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch.
9.) Best possible destination – A team who will utilize him as a three-down back and preferably one with other offensive weapons around him. Teams who immediately come to mind include Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Seattle, Oakland, and the New York Giants.
Most of the teams in the second half of the first round already have an established running back, so if Guice makes it past Detroit (pick 20) and Buffalo (picks 21 and 22), he could very well not hear his name called until round two. The Colts and Giants pick early in the draft, so Guice would probably only end up on one of those teams if they use their second-round pick on him. Another intriguing landing spot for Guice is Miami. I am not convinced Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are their running backs of the future and Guice could become the centerpiece of the Miami offense.
10.) Worst possible destination – Any team with a crowded backfield or established starter are obviously not ideal destinations for Guice. I have seen Washington and Detroit mentioned and am honestly not a fan of Guice landing with either of those teams. Both have established third-down backs, Chris Thompson and Theo Riddick respectively, who would limit Guice’s upside in the passing game and potentially force him into a two-down role. Landing on a team with a very weak offensive line, like Joe Mixon did last year, would also not be ideal. But offensive lines can change quickly in the NFL.
11.) Best current skill – My favorite traits of Guice include his vision, power, and balance. He runs with such tenacity and watching him run over and bounce off defenders is a treat. His intensity is also fun to watch.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Many will probably criticize Guice’s lack of elite speed and receiving production in college. Although I admit Guice is not necessarily a speedster, I believe he still possesses enough speed to succeed and make big plays at the NFL level. As far as limited receiving work, he did look good catching the ball when given the chance. The problem was he did not see many of those chances at LSU.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP – He is currently second overall (RB2) in our rankings, trailing only Saquon Barkley. Guice’s ADP could potentially change after the combine and NFL draft, but for now, he is locked into the second slot.
14.) Projected dynasty value – While Saquon Barkley could find himself as a first-round start-up pick as soon as he is added to our rankings, Guice could find himself as a third-round start-up pick and possibly a second-rounder if he lands in a great situation. I could see him start off as a back-end ‘running back one’, near players like Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, and Joe Mixon.
15.) Best season vs. last season – I have heard some analysts advocate for placing more emphasis on a player’s best collegiate season instead of their last collegiate season. A recent example of where this would have worked is with JuJu Smith-Schuster and it could also apply to Derrius Guice. Smith-Schuster slid down many people’s rookie rankings after he had a “down” junior season at USC, but he has been arguably the best rookie receiver in the NFL this year.
Guice battled injuries for a large portion of this season and was a victim of poor offensive line play at times. Although his numbers were down compared to last season, he was still productive. Do not let his junior year completely overshadow the greatness he showed during his sophomore campaign.
16.) Quickness over speed – While Guice does not possess elite speed, he still has enough to succeed in the NFL. Where he does excel is with his quickness in between the tackles and in and out of cuts.
17.) Youth – Guice is a young prospect, which is great for a running back. He will still be only 20 years old by the time the NFL draft rolls around in April and will barely be 21 by the start of the 2018 season.
18.) Gym rat – Guice was recorded squatting 650 pounds last off-season. 650 pounds! Perhaps this is why he is able to shed so many tacklers and display elite contact balance.
19.) Running angry – Saying Guice had a rough childhood is an understatement. His father was gunned down when he was six and his brother was arrested for attempted murder a little over a year ago. Guice credits where he grew up for teaching him to run angry to escape the rough neighborhood. I really enjoy watching Guice run the ball and hope he can bring that same intensity to the NFL.
20.) Overshadowed – Guice has been overshadowed by Saquon Barkley for most of this last season. Barkley did, in fact, have a fabulous year, but do not forget the debates between Guice and Barkley last off-season. I believe both are special talents. Do not sleep on Derrius Guice.
[/am4show]
- Devy Roundup: Week 14 - November 26, 2019
- Devy Roundup: Week 13 - November 20, 2019
- Devy Roundup: Week 12 - November 12, 2019
