20/20: Nick Chubb

Justin Bales

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we will be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2018 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Nick Chubb

2.) College – Georgia

3.) Height/Weight – 5’11”, 228 lbs.

4.) Birth date – December 27, 1995 (22 years old)

5.) Class – Senior

6.) Basic college stats – Chubb broke onto the scene in 2014 as a true freshman, rushing for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns on 219 carries. He also recorded 18 receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns that season. His sophomore campaign was cut short by an injury, but he was still able to total 779 yards and eight touchdowns on only 96 touches. He has looked completely healthy for two consecutive years now, recording 2,591 total yards and 24 touchdowns on 456 touches.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Early in Chubb’s career, there were talks that he would be a top-ten pick, but that was before his injury in 2015. While he has performed well since then, he has clearly lost a step on the field. He has played well enough to be selected on day two of the draft, though. He’ll likely be drafted in the second round, but it would not be a major surprise if he falls to the third.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

8.) Current NFL comp – Alfred Morris. Chubb has the size to be an early down running back in the NFL, but his athleticism does not pop off on tape, especially after his injury. He does not have elite receiving skills, but he has the potential to be a two-down running back in the league. He is a bit more athletic than Morris, but they match up fairly well as players that performed well in college and have the potential to perform for years to come in the NFL. Essentially, Chubb is somewhat of an enhanced Alfred Morris.

9.) Best possible destination – New England Patriots. There are rumors that Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are both going to leave New England for free agency. That leaves a major hole in the Patriots depth chart, as they will be losing two key pieces at running back. Chubb is an early-down runner who would benefit from getting a break with James White taking over as the passing down back. New England would also allow Chubb to see plenty of goal line work, which is one of his best attributes.

10.) Worst possible destination – New York Giants. The Giants have a plethora of question marks at the running back position. Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen, who are seemingly their best two running backs, are both free agents and could leave this off-season. They also have Paul Perkins and Wayne Gallman as young runners, who have shown flashes at times.

Chubb would likely be locked in some type of running back by committee, in which the Giants likely will not give any RB a fair shot. They seemingly love swapping running backs in and out, which simply does not allow any to find their groove. They also have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and Chubb is no longer a running back that is easily going to create yards for himself. He is a player who is going to need help from his line if he wants to find success.

11.) Best current skill – Balance. Chubb has an extremely solid base, allowing him to keep his balance with defenders hanging on him. This is an important skill, as Chubb tends to run between the tackles more than bouncing outside. It also allows him to burst through holes near the goal line, keeping his balance long enough to find the end zone.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Explosiveness. Chubb was one of the most explosive running backs in the nation as a freshman, but he struggled with explosion after his injury. He looked like a sluggish running back in 2016, but some of his explosion seemed to return during his 2017 campaign. There is no answer as to whether or not Chubb’s pre-injury explosion will return to him, but the most likely scenario is that it will not.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – Chubb’s ADP in the DLF February Rookie Mock Drafts was 6.7. He was selected between four and eight in every mock draft. His ADP currently sits between Ronald Jones and Calvin Ridley. Chubb is being selected as the fifth overall running back, behind Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Jones.

14.) Projected dynasty value – Chubb’s dynasty value bases heavily around how an owner feels about his health. If he can return to his pre-injury form, he has the potential to be a workhorse in the NFL. If he does not, he will be an early-down runner who struggles with explosive plays. His value could increase if he is drafted into a perfect situation, but it more likely than not it’s going to stay around where it is at the moment.

15.) Injury – Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury in 2015, causing him to miss the rest of the season. There were reports that Chubb’s career could potentially be over, but that obviously was not the case. He has not returned to his pre-injury form thus far in his career, but he has recorded a 5.0 YPC in 2016, followed by a 6.0 YPC in 2017. This progression is encouraging, but it is also highly unlikely that Chubb ever returns to his pre-injury form.

16.) Freshman phenom – Chubb burst onto the season as a true freshman, recording 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns on 219 attempts. He was given the keys to the offense after an injury to Todd Gurley, and Chubb produced nearly as well as Gurley that season. The major concerns is that Chubb will never return to his pre-injury form, but if he does, it is great to see him producing as well as an established NFL running back in the same offense.

17.) Potential receiving? – Chubb recorded an uninspiring 13 receptions through his final 34 games at Georgia. This may not be indicative of his receiving potential, though, as Georgia is not an offense that heavily features the running back in their passing attack.

In Chubb’s four collegiate seasons, he led the running backs in receiving once with 18 receptions. After that, Michel led the running backs twice with 26 and 22 receptions, followed by D’Andre Swift with 17 receptions. In 2014, Chubb recorded more receptions than Todd Gurley, who has 128 receptions through three seasons in the NFL. Keep in mind, Chubb played more games than Gurley that season, and this does not necessarily mean Chubb will become a receiving threat in the NFL. It simply suggests there is more potential hidden under the surface.

18.) Impressive workouts – Chubb is known to work extremely hard in the weight room during the off-season. He has been seen squatting over 600 pounds, which is quite the feat in itself. His workout is proof of his powerful base, which is seen as one of the most important aspects of a running back’s physical features.

19.) Landing spot – The landing spot is one of the most important aspects surrounding Chubb’s value. If a team is willing to take him early in the draft, he will likely be featured in an early-down role with the potential for more if he returns to his old form. If he falls later in the draft, it is because teams are likely concerned about his injury history, suggesting they may not see him as a featured early-down worker. There are also a few teams that need help at running back, allowing Chubb to take over early in his career.

20.) Bowl game success – Chubb has played in four postseason games throughout his career at Georgia, posting elite numbers in three of them. Aside from the National Championship against Alabama, against one of the best run defenses in the NCAA, Chubb was able to average 184.3 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns in his three bowl games. The game against Alabama is an obvious concern, but Chubb has proven that he is generally at his best when the bright lights are on.

[/am4show]