2017 Rookie IDP Focus: Myles Garrett
As I’ve said many times, I’m increasingly coming around to DEs being the rockstars of IDP. They’re just so hard to find and replace that the impact of owning an elite one is huge. As a result, when a young pass rusher like Garrett is taken with the number one overall pick in the NFL draft, it creates waves.
He had an up-and-down rookie season but seems fully fit and raring to go now as the Browns have unprecedented draft capital and salary cap to improve. How excited should we be?
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Background
Garrett is Texan born and bred. He grew up and attended High School in Arlington, where he played and excelled in multiple sports including discus and shot put. In many ways, he’s got a discus thrower’s build (long, sinewy, flexible, explosive) now and the athletics fan in me would love to see him in that sport. His football career led him to be a five-star recruit and he committed to Texas A&M. In his three seasons as an Aggie, he broke records and compiled 31 sacks and a huge 141 tackles. Those are dominant numbers. His seven batted passes were also very impressive and part of the reason I thought he was reminiscent of Carlos Dunlap as a draft prospect.
In the pre-draft process, he wowed with the athleticism to match his excellent production. His 41” vertical jump, 128” broad jump, 4.64 40-yard dash, and 33-rep bench press were all outstanding for a man of his size. The Browns certainly seemed to agree and selected Garrett as the first overall pick even though the Browns were desperate for a quarterback.
Playing time
Garrett was injured in early September, which kept him from playing until week five against the Jets. He immediately impressed by recording two sacks on just 19 snaps. He followed that up with another sack the week after against the Texans (from just 33 snaps), and his fourth against the Titans the week afterward. Four sacks in his first 109 snaps was an incredible start.
Across the rest of the season, he settled down to a more normal rate but did play consistently and averaged 52 snaps per game across the second half of the season. He managed just three sacks across that period but did generate fairly good pressure.
Edge demon
Garrett ended the season with seven sacks from 37 total pressures. As a comparison, that’s around the same amount of total pressure as Olivier Vernon, Robert Quinn, Ezekiel Ansah, Dante Fowler, Derek Barnett, and Junior Galette. Those are good players – but not elite ones. In fact, 12 players in 2017 managed to record 70 or more pressures so Garrett has a long way to go to reach those heights.
On the other hand, Garrett did miss five games entirely. From an efficiency point of view, Garrett finished around the same level as Jadeveon Clowney, Trey Flowers, Brian Orakpo, Ansah and Everson Griffen. Those are good comparisons again but Garrett ended up just 53rd in Pro Football Focus’s Pass Rush Productivity stat.
His raw figure of seven sacks was impressive. But as a comparison, in 2017 T.J. Watt produced the same and Carl Lawson managed eight. In 2016 Joey Bosa managed 10.5, Yannick Ngakoue eight and Leonard Floyd seven. In 2015 Preston Smith had eight sacks. Not all of those players are about to become top ten pass rushers.
Garett certainly showed promise but it’s important not to get carried away here. He was nowhere near elite level across the season. Although he has the potential to get there, he has significant obstacles in his way.
Reluctant tackler
Garret produced 19 solos and 12 assists in 2017 – precisely the same number as DaQuan Jones and Carl Nassib did. Jones also managed to hit those numbers with 92 fewer snaps than Garrett. In total, 44 other DEs made more tackles than Garrett did.
Again, Garrett did miss time – so if we account for that, he finished 35th amongst DEs in tackle efficiency (if we only include ends who played at least 400 snaps). His efficiency was level with Akiem Hicks (who played in a 3-4 scheme), Jerry Hughes, Brandon Dunn, Jonathan Bullard and Cameron Wake.
It’s worth noting that Emmanuel Ogbah managed a slightly better tackle efficiency rate whilst Nate Orchard and Nassib were worse. It’s entirely possible that the Browns’ defensive scheme limited the tackle numbers for Garrett rather than individual play. However, that will be unlikely to change moving forward.
Playing time
Garrett played 519 snaps, which ranked 47th among all DEs in the NFL. The top-ten volume DEs all played 300 or more snaps more than Garrett. I’ve already mentioned he was injured but I strongly advise the belief that injury is an unusual state for defensive players in the NFL.
39 DEs played 40 or more snaps in week one of 2017. Just 16 of those 39 men ended up playing in all 16 games of the season. Across all of those 39 players, the average total defensive snaps for the season was just 661.
Garrett averaged 47 snaps per game that he played in. That figure was 25th among DE in 2017. Gregg Williams likes to rotate his DEs. He always has done and that trend does not look like ending anytime soon. With Garrett, we need to accept he will not be out there every snap and just hope that the rest time means he’s more effective on the snaps he does play.
Moving Forward
Garrett is clearly a fantastic talent and the Browns are committed to maximising that. It also helps that the team are unlikely to be good in the immediate future so we can probably count on positive game scripts for a pass rusher.
But it’s not all rainbows and milkshakes. He played limited snaps due to design as well as injury and was not impressively efficient for the time he was on the field. I am expecting an improvement in playing time and efficiency in year two but only a slight one. I currently have him projected for 655 snaps (up from 519), 35 solos (up from 19), 11 assists (down one from 12) and eight sacks (up one from seven). At this stage of the year, he’s the DE15 or thereabouts depending on scoring settings.
In terms of value, he was overdrafted in rookie drafts a year ago due to the hype of going first overall. That value hasn’t worn off at all despite a slightly underwhelming rookie season, so he’s a hold. His price is mostly too high to buy and if you paid the premium to obtain him there’s very little point in getting out now. You need to just hold tight and hope he can significantly improve.
Thanks for reading.
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