Josh Allen: Criminally Underrated

Bradley Ylitalo Posted On February 22, 2018

Josh Allen is the most undervalued prospect in the dynasty community. There, I said it. Before you start yelling “heresy”, just hear me out.

First, let’s get the facts out in the open. Ranking 44th in DLF’s latest Rookie Top 50 Rankings, Allen is the fifth quarterback on the board and (using simple math) a projected mid-to-late fourth-round pick.

Secondly, let’s expose a well-known wart – his extremely underwhelming stats. Over his two full seasons in Wyoming, he amassed 21 interceptions, a 56% completion percentage, and barely over 5,000 yards. Making matters worse, you can’t even say “at least he improved year to year”. In fact, his stats actually fell off from his Sophomore to Junior season.

Suffice to say, I can certainly see why many won’t touch Allen with a ten-foot pole. I understand being wary of him, just please don’t disregard the kid altogether. So before you get your heart set on who Allen is, please consider the following.

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Mobility

Lamar Jackson is hands down, without a doubt, the most athletic quarterback in this class. Nobody is arguing that. But who’s number two? As Eliot Crist and I discussed on the Draft Daily Pod, it might just be the 6’5″ Allen.

An experienced runner who carried the ball over 200 times for Wyoming, he’s very well-versed in using his feet. Eight quarterbacks rushed for at least four touchdowns in 2017. Allen should be able to hit that number on a yearly basis. Pretty comparable to DeShone Kizer as a runner (probably even better), I think we could see Allen surpass Kizer’s 419 yards pretty regularly. He won’t be Michael Vick. He isn’t Jackson. But his mobility is a superb tool.

Just part of the beauty of Josh Allen’s game, here shows off the mobility and arm strength!! #NFLDraft #DraftTwitter @Ian_Johnson16 pic.twitter.com/BNUGnJwOwg

— Bradley Ylitalo (@NFL_drafthub) November 8, 2017

Arm Strength

I get it. People get tired of “arm strength” talk. But hang with me here, because Allen’s arm is truly unbelievable. Making far hash throws is often a tough test for a quarterback’s arm, and Allen made this look like a day one quiz. Just another reason I can’t wait for the combine. There’s talk Allen will be able to hurl it at 60 miles per hour.

Arm strength is far from a great determiner of success. But I’ll always take the kid that can split any defensive coverage than someone who you have to shorten the playbook for. He has size, athleticism and a cannon for an arm. Allen’s physical traits are impeccable.

Josh Allen is that good! This is a tough far hash throw some QB’s can’t make!! @Ian_Johnson16 @DFF_Devy #DraftTwitter #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/lidOwVBwGZ

— Bradley Ylitalo (@NFL_drafthub) September 18, 2017

Mechanics

Mechanics, release, whatever you want to call it – Allen has it. Some of you might be wondering why mechanics are important. After all, if the ball gets to the player accurately, why do we care how quick his release was, or what angle his arm was at? I totally understand this line of thinking. But when the cards are down, and the pocket is collapsing or the throwing window is tight, it’s your quick and consistent release that you often have to rely upon. Mechanics: one of the main reasons Aaron Rodgers is a superstar, and why Tim Tebow couldn’t last.

Surrounding Talent

Allen’s stats aren’t going to work in his favor, but there are a couple of things we can look at that point to a brighter NFL career than his college campaigns.

Starting with looking at his Sophomore and Junior season separately, we see a pretty drastic, yet intriguing difference. His yards regressed from 3,200 to 1,800. Yards per attempt wise, he went from a solid 8.6 to a disappointing 6.7. Finally, his touchdowns dipped from 28 to 16. What on earth happened? While three fewer games played an element in Allen’s slide, the much bigger factor has to be attributed to his surrounding talent. You may have heard of Brian Hill, but how about Tanner Gentry, Jacob Hollister, or Chase Roullier? All teammates of Allen in 2016, all off to the NFL in 2017.

How about the Senior Bowl? Playing with a supporting cast of players near his talent level, Allen shined bright. 9 for 13, 158 yards, 12.2 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. How’s that for silencing the critics? To show you it wasn’t just a QB friendly fare, I’ll give you the combined stats of Allen’s teammates, Baker Mayfield and Tanner Lee. 11 for 26, 95 yards, 3.7 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, and one interception. I think it’s fair to say Allen has shown he excels playing with the big boys.

If after all I’ve said you’re still planning on passing on the Cowboy, I don’t blame you. He isn’t Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. He’s the risky, classic ‘boom or bust’ prospect. But I ask you: isn’t that exactly what you want in a quarterback? It’s pretty easy to find your garden-variety QB who’s going to put up Andy Dalton or Philip Rivers-like production. What’s difficult and extremely valuable is finding the next Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. That’s what Allen could be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDXjTDB24cI

So where should we value Allen?

It’s a tricky question. Mayfield and Jackson are very viable options after Rosen and Darnold, but for reasons I listed, I’m ranking Allen as the QB3. And if he’s there in the mid-third-round (which he probably will be), I’m taking him all day every day.

Make sure you check out “Bradley Ylitalo’s Scouting Notebook” and please leave a comment or question about a specific prospect, or fit for your team, below. Feel free to shoot me a question on Twitter (@NFL_Drafthub), I’m always happy to interact with football fans. See you next time!

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