20/20: Mark Walton
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we will be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2018 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player name –Â Mark Walton
2.) College – Miami
3.) Height/Weight – 5’9″, 188-205 lbs
4.) Birth date – 03/29/1997 (20)
5.) Class –Â Junior
6.) Basic college stats – 2015:Â 461 rushing yards (3.5 yards per attempt), nine rushing touchdowns, 293 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. 2016: 1,117 rushing yards on 209 attempts (5.3) and 14 rushing TDs, plus 240 receiving yards and a score. 2017: He amassed 519 yards from scrimmage in just four games before he was shut down for the year with an ankle injury.
7.) NFL Draft round projection –Â Day two or early day three. In mocks I’ve seen, he’s been drafted as high as the second round and as low as the fifth. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller ranks Walton as his sixth-best back and biggest sleeper, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com projects him as a fourth-rounder.
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8.) Current NFL comparison –Â Daniel Jeremiah said Walton is drawing a lot of comparisons to Devonta Freeman. I liken him to Ameer Abdullah physically. The two will measure up very similarly at the Combine, but they play in slightly different ways. Walton is more adept at inside running, has a strong lower body and hardly fumbled the ball. Abdullah, while perhaps more explosive and elusive, has struggled to make an impact as a runner at the pro level. Walton could do what Abdullah hasn’t been able to so far.
9.) Best possible destination – Since he’s not restricted in where he may be drafted, there are a bunch of great spots he or any mid-round back could end up in – simply check out Ryan McDowell’s ‘RB Landscape’ spreadsheet to see how many available destinations there are. Some potentially great spots? New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay or San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan (especially if he does turn out to be a ‘Freeman-type’ back).
10.) Worst possible destination –Â The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions consistently seem to add runners, only to see them fizzle out behind weak offensive lines. The Jets and Colts will be looking for new lead backs but may be tough attacks to find fantasy production from (depending on their QB situations in 2018).
11.) Best current skill – Balance. Watching Walton run, it’s hard not to be impressed with his tough running. He doesn’t go down easily and always tends to fall forward. Not only does the balance from his thick legs and hips help him shake off weak tackles, it’s also an important part of his pass protection. Walton can stand up oncoming rushers, and also deliver a good chip or low block. As opposed to many shorter, smaller runners, Walton has a very strong lower body.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – While Walton has the power and will come up with the odd juke or sidestep that’ll wow you, there are questions about his decision-making ability as a runner. Both Lance Zierlein and Matt Waldman have brought this up. Zierlein says he “shows distrust of the blocking plan and will void the rush track early”, while Waldman highlights a run where Walton “does not consider the design of the blocking scheme”. Quite honestly, it was hard to find a glaring weakness and it’s not a major issue. But not being a disciplined runner can get you hooked quicker than you know.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP – In our February Rookie ADP, Walton was 19th overall and tenth among running backs. In startup ADP, he came in at 17th overall and again as the tenth back. Finally, in our rookie rankings, he’s 16th overall and the eighth running back.
14.) Projected dynasty value –Â Even though we know this running back class is strong and will continue to lead an RB value resurgence in dynasty football, the mid-to-lower level backs have been treated with caution so far. Walton is the RB44 in dynasty startup ADP. However, there are already six rookies in the top 26 backs, so if Walton, Kerryon Johnson, John Kelly, etc end up in one of these great backfield situations, you can bet they’ll race up in value. Right now, he is rightly valued as a mid-to-late second round rookie pick, but ‘situation’ is key for runners.
15.) Tough times – Walton has been through more as a 20-year-old than many will their whole lives. His father was murdered when he was in elementary school, and his mother had a stroke and passed away in March 2017.
16.) Streaky player? – A lot of Walton’s production has come in short bursts. In the first three games of 2016, Walton ran for 401 yards and seven TDs. In his next five, he only managed 248 and two scores. He then had another three-game stretch of 356 yards and five touchdowns, followed by a pair of games in which he didn’t top 60 yards on the ground. Even in 2017, he was insane through the first two games (352 yards (!)), and combined for 76 in the next two. Can he put together the consistency required to succeed in the NFL?
17.) Toledo trouncing – Against Toledo in 2017, Walton became the fifth running back in Hurricanes history to record a 200-yard rushing game. He had 204 yards on just 11 carries (18.5 yards per attempt) in a sensational display. Watch him carve them apart below.
18.) The injury – If Walton didn’t miss the majority of last season, we’d likely be talking about him as a top prospect. And according to reports, he’s fully healthy now and will take full part in the NFL Scouting Combine. While NFL teams may have their hesitations about taking him very high, with the injury still in mind, whoever does snag him will be getting a top talent.
19.) High school stud – Walton crushed his competition at Booker T. Washington High School in Miami, leaving with 2,769 rushing yards and 45 touchdowns. He also helped deliver a State Championship win in 2014. The all-around star had 184 yards and three scores on the ground as well as 89 yards and two TDs through the air.
20.) Trust – I’m going to leave you with this, as I believe it’ll be crucial to Walton’s success at the next level. Coaches simply love backs who can pass protection and keep hold of the football. Walton excels at both. He’s aggressive protecting his QB, has good technique (the balance helps) and no one can fault his effort. With the football, Walton didn’t fumble once in his last 274 attempts. He could have an immediate impact wherever he goes.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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