Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs

Joseph Nammour

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”


Patrick Mahomes (JAN ADP: 137.7, QB16)

Mahomes is cemented as Kansas City’s starter following the trade of Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins. Even though most expected the Chiefs to move on from Smith this off-season, the move still came as a bit of a shock. Mahomes was terrific in the preseason and played well in his NFL debut against the Broncos this season. The offense will look drastically different with him under center than it did with Smith as the starter.

It’s fair to expect Mahomes to require some time to develop. But he’s as naturally gifted as they come, and Andy Reid has long been a talent maximizer at the quarterback position. This pairing is a match made in heaven, and the sky is the limit for the 22-year-old Mahomes.

The buying window on Mahomes closed a while ago. He came in as the QB16 in January’s ADP data, but that’s likely to climb now that the season is over. In addition to the boost in value he gained with the trade of Smith, the aging quarterbacks will fall in addition. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Mahomes sneak into the back of the top-12 at the position.

Tyler Bray (JAN ADP: N/A)

The 26-year-old Bray is an impending free agent but is little more than a low-upside backup. He’s not worth rostering unless you play in deep 2QB leagues.

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Kareem Hunt (JAN ADP: 11.7, RB6)

I was a huge fan of Kareem Hunt pre-draft, but his rookie season took even his biggest believers by surprise. Hunt capitalized on his opportunity once Spencer Ware tore his ACL and dominated snaps and touches in the Kansas City backfield. Andy Reid, for all his faults, knows how to maximize running back talent (even if he stops giving them touches mid-game for unknown reasons).

Hunt is probably priced at or near his ceiling following an RB4 campaign. He led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,327, added 53 receptions for 455 yards, and scored 11 total touchdowns. However, with an influx of talented rookies soon to enter the NFL, it’s unlikely that Hunt’s price will ever be higher. He’s currently just inside the first round with an ADP of 11.7 as RB6. Our running back rankers list him as high as fifth and as low as 12th, coming in with a composite rank of seven.

Spencer Ware (JAN ADP: 173.7, RB55)

Ware was terrific in early 2016 before hitting a wall midway through the season. As a former fullback, it’s likely that the drastically increased workload caught up to him, and the Chiefs have since drafted and committed to Kareem Hunt as their workhorse, limiting Ware’s upside.

Ware was expected to share time with Hunt this season before tearing his ACL in the preseason. Coming off that ACL tear, Ware is being overlooked by most drafters, currently going in the 15th round as the RB55. It’s possible that he could be a discount at this price.

Akeem Hunt (JAN ADP: 234.17, RB83)

The only explanation I have for Hunt being higher than Charcandrick West is that someone mistakenly thought they were somehow getting a steal with Kareem Hunt. He’s not worth a roster spot, especially with Ware returning.

Charcandrick West (JAN ADP: N/A)

West is a low-end backup who is likely to lose even his role as a handcuff with the return of a healthy Spencer Ware. He had just 18 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns this season, although he did play a decent role on third downs, contributing 27 receptions for 150 yards and a score.

West was barely worth a roster spot in 2017 with Ware injured, and can be left on the waiver wire in most 12-team leagues.

Anthony Sherman (JAN ADP: N/A)

Sherman gets the occasional carry as a fullback, but he is not worth rostering in any format. He is an impending free agent.


Tyreek Hill (JAN ADP: 22.8, WR12)

Despite the terrible off-field incident from a number of years ago, Hill seems like a safe dynasty investment. In just two seasons, he’s progressed from a gadget player to a downfield threat to a well-rounded receiver. In his first year as a full-time receiver, Hill caught 75 passes for 1,183 yards and seven touchdowns, but what’s particularly impressive is his catch rate – Hill saw only 105 targets this season and caught 71.4 percent of them. He has plenty of room to grow as a route runner, so Hill has yet to hit his ceiling. On top of that, he’s also one of the best return men in the NFL.

Smith was a terrific downfield passer this season, so it’s unrealistic to expect even further growth from Hill in this area this season. But his ability downfield meshes perfectly with Mahomes’ best traits, and this marriage is stable for the foreseeable future. Hill’s price continues to climb, but I don’t think he’s overpriced at all. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if this trajectory continued.

Albert Wilson (JAN ADP: 182.3, WR79)

Wilson is much better than he’s given credit for. He had his best career season to date, catching 42 passes for 554 yards and three touchdowns, but his underlying statistics and advanced metrics are what intrigue me with Wilson. The impending free agent is athletic and dangerous with the ball in his hands. He led all NFL receivers in yards of separation at target (4.1) per Next Gen Stats, was second with 5.0 yards after catch per target, third with 15 missed tackles forced, and was fourth in the league with a 72.4% contested catch conversion rate.

New Bears head coach Matt Nagy came from Kansas City and has a need at the receiver position, so that’s one fit that makes a lot of sense. Wilson is a target of mine this off-season, whether it’s via trade or off the waiver wire.

Demarcus Robinson (JAN ADP: 200.8, WR90)

Robinson’s college career was strange and marred by off-field questions, but he’s unquestionably talented. He flashed on multiple occasions this season, catching 21 passes for 212 yards. He may still be on waiver wires, but with Mahomes under center and Wilson potentially leaving Kansas City, Robinson is a cheap target of mine this off-season.

Chris Conley (JAN ADP: 216.2, WR97)

Conley being the fourth-most expensive of the Chiefs receivers is interesting, as he has the athletic profile as tantalizing as any player in the league. For a long time, it felt as if checkdown machine Alex Smith (who, admittedly, was an effective deep ball passer this season) was holding Conley back from reaching his upside. Now, with Patrick Mahomes under center, Conley could be poised for a breakout. Expectations should be tempered, but Conley’s skill set meshes much more with Mahomes than with Smith.

Conley caught just 11 passes for 175 yards before going down for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. Hopefully, this injury doesn’t sap his explosion, because he’s truly a special athlete. At WR97, Conley carries little actual value and trade value, but he could be a cheap target with potential upside.

Jehu Chesson (JAN ADP: N/A)

Last season’s fourth-round pick has some potential upside, but he has some climbing to do on the depth chart. He’s probably on most waiver wires, but he’s little more than an end-of-roster stash in leagues where he is rostered. Chesson caught just two passes for 18 yards in 2017.

De’Anthony Thomas (JAN ADP: N/A)

Thomas was an exciting prospect out of Oregon once upon a time, but he’s nothing more than an undersized gadget player and return man. He doesn’t deserve a roster spot.


Travis Kelce (FEB ADP: 36, TE1)

Travis Kelce is your new dynasty TE1. Kelce leaped into the top spot in February’s ADP amidst concerns about Rob Gronkowski’s potential retirement. Although he has four fewer seasons to his name than Gronk, he’s only five months younger than his tight end counterpart.

Despite all of that, Kelce doesn’t seem anywhere even close to retirement and is coming off two consecutive TE1 overall seasons. He crested 80 receptions and 1,000 yards for the second year in a row and finally began to find the end zone with some regularity, scoring eight times.

He’s probably priced accordingly. The tight end position, in general, is a wasteland, so Kelce gives you a mainstay that you can acquire at the end of the third round in startups.

Demetrius Harris (JAN ADP: 235.5, TE36)

If you’ve watched a single Chiefs game, you’ve likely heard that Harris is a former college basketball player. He’s very athletic but has yet to turn that athleticism into tangible NFL success. This was his best season to date, with 18 receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown. He’s worth little-to-nothing at this point, but he’s worth monitoring to see if he can claim a bigger role on another team in 2019.

Orson Charles (JAN ADP: N/A)

Charles caught two passes for 53 yards this year. He’s 27 years old. Moving on…

Ross Travis (JAN ADP: N/A)

Travis caught five passes for 43 yards this year. He’s a bit younger than Charles, but he’s not worth rostering either.