It’s a challenge to determine the best time to trade players during the off-season. Almost every owner is aware that big value shifts can occur during free agency and the NFL draft. Thus, it’s difficult to gain a competitive advantage in that area. What about the rest of the player field?
Our goal should be to predict non-obvious risers and fallers – players whose value could shift due to non-obvious factors. In doing so, we’d have an advantage over trade partners who believe the value of these players will hold over the off-season.
To accomplish this, I examined changes in ADP for all players from January to August for each of the past two years. Players whose ADP change was due to something predictable like free agency or NFL draft were removed from the study. The same goes for fluky reasons like suspensions and injuries.