Making a List: ADP Twins

Ryan McDowell Posted On January 30, 2018

I’m a list guy. I make “to do” lists, follow “honey do” lists, and will take time to read a top ten list of almost anything. This series of articles will bring you a top-five ranking on a myriad of topics in the world of dynasty football.

With our brand new dynasty ADP data recently hitting the site, I wanted to take a closer look at some ADP Twins, pairs of players with the exact same January dynasty ADP. These are clearly players our dynasty community values similarly, but which is the right choice when participating in a startup draft?

I’ve covered this topic before, sharing my own opinion of how I value the two specific players and ultimately, which I would choose. This time, I added another wrinkle, polling my Twitter followers, and the results were very surprising.

Alvin Kamara vs. Julio Jones (ADP = 11.17)

Pick a player in PPR dynasty

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) January 14, 2018

It is obvious that Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been one of the top stories across all dynasty leagues this season and his value has skyrocketed, making him a fringe first-round pick in new leagues. A player headed in the opposite direction is Falcons veteran receiver Julio Jones, who despite a very respectable WR7 finish in PPR leagues, is losing dynasty value as he nears his 29th birthday. Each player found themselves near the end of the first-round in January’s dynasty ADP, but I suspect their trade value varies greatly. That is shown in the poll results, which were dominated by Kamara in runaway fashion.

Personally, I am torn on this one as I typically build my teams around wideouts, but also target young players. While I have some slight concerns about Kamara’s ability to maintain his out of this world efficiency numbers as well as his lofty dynasty value, I have to take the dynamic back who can do it all for one of the best offenses in the league over the weekly frustration that stems from Jones’ red zone usage.

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Tyreek Hill vs. Devonta Freeman (22.83)

Take your pick…PPR dynasty

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) January 14, 2018

The matchup of Chiefs breakout star Tyreek Hill and the steady performer that is Falcons back Devonta Freeman was another blowout win for the younger player. After a fantastic end to his rookie season a year ago, Hill proved he was for real, serving as the top wideout for the Chiefs and quarterback Alex Smith. With the expected move to big-armed youngster Patrick Mahomes, dynasty owners seem even more anxious to own the speedy Hill. Freeman had his worst season in three years, but still totaled over 1,100 yards from scrimmage and finished just outside the RB1 range, despite missing a pair of games with an injury.

As I’ve said, I love building my dynasty teams around young receivers, even amidst the running back revolution, so I would easily prefer Hill among this duo and two-thirds of the voters agreed. While their ADP is a perfect match, Hill clearly is carrying more overall value at this time.

Derrick Henry vs. Sammy Watkins (32.5)

Who would you want in a PPR dynasty?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) January 14, 2018

Another battle of two players seeming to trend in different directions. After being traded from the Bills to the Rams, receiver Sammy Watkins failed to make his mark on the high-powered Los Angeles offense. He is reportedly expected to remain with the Rams despite his status as a free agent, but I’m not sure that’s a good sign for his long-term value.

It was also a frustrating season for fantasy owners of Titans young back Derrick Henry, who was once against stuck behind veteran DeMarco Murray for the majority of the year. A late-season injury to Murray forced the Titans hand though as they made Henry their bell cow back in Week Seventeen and into the playoffs. He responded with a pair of very productive games before being shut down by the Patriots, and his value has been quickly climbing over the past month. That rise is also aided by the presumption that Murray and the Titans will part ways, considering the veteran’s contract status.

This might be the most difficult choice of the exercise for me as I currently feel both of these players are being overvalued. At this point in the draft, I would likely look for another option but if forced to choose between this pair, I would use position as the tie-breaker and select Watkins. As you can see, this differs from my Twitter poll in which nearly three-fourths of respondents chose the red-hot Henry.

Russell Wilson vs. Demaryius Thomas (51.33)

Which player do you prefer in PPR dynasty?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) January 14, 2018

The largest gap coming from the Twitter poll is the showdown between Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, coming off an overall QB1 finish this season, and the Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas. Although Thomas was the WR16 on the season, it probably didn’t feel that way to his fantasy owners as he posted frequent duds throughout the year as the Denver offense struggled. Now, Thomas is a rumored cap casualty and even if he stays, he has major quarterback questions heading into 2018. Oh, and he’s also past the dreaded age 30.

This huge difference comes as result of the ability for dynasty owners to play a game of quarterback chicken when it comes to drafting. Sure, we’d all like to have Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or one of the other top quarterbacks, but the value of the late round quarterback strategy makes it a popular choice to simply wait. That means quarterbacks’ dynasty ADP is often quite different from their trade value. While I certainly agree with the choice of Wilson, I was very surprised to see the difference at the conclusion of the poll.

Andrew Luck vs. Jordy Nelson (67.33)

Which player would you want in a PPR dynasty?

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) January 14, 2018

A second matchup of an aging wideout in Jordy Nelson and a quarterback in his prime, Andrew Luck of the Colts. Unlike Wilson wrapping up a QB1 season, Luck missed the entire season with shoulder issues and his future is still cloudy. Although Nelson stayed relatively healthy this season, his quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn’t and Nelson took a major step back in 2017.

For many of the same reasons voters preferred Wilson over Thomas, Luck easily won the poll over Nelson, who may have played his final game for the Packers. The future of both players is very up in the air, but Luck at least has age on his side if he is able to fully recover from his shoulder injury. Because of these reasons, I side with the respondents in siding with Luck.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.