Fantasy Efficiency: Duke Johnson, RB CLE

Justin Bales Posted On January 23, 2018

Player: Duke Johnson
Position: RB
2017 Touches: 156
2017 PPR Points: 216.1
2017 FP/Touch: 1.39

2017 Season

Through his first three seasons, Johnson has been a player caught between two positions. He is technically a running back, but has done the majority of his damage as a receiver – although the majority of his receptions come out of the backfield. In his third season, he somewhat broke out, posting career highs in rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Johnson is labeled as a running back, but is only averaging 86.3 rushing attempts per season so far in his career. He had 82 rushing attempts last season, accounting for only 21.4% of the Browns’ runs. He was an average runner, accounting for 20.3% of the team’s rushing yards and 36.4% of Cleveland’s rushing touchdowns. His ability to find the end zone on the ground was surprising this season, as he totaled his four touchdowns on only 12 red zone carries, which ranked third on the team.

Johnson’s strength is his receiving ability out of the backfield. He led the team in targets (93), receptions (74), receiving yards (693), and ranked second in receiving touchdowns (3). He posted a tremendous 79.6% catch rate, which was 22.7% higher than the next player who had more than 30 targets. Johnson only saw five red zone targets last season, leaving a lot to be desired. With that being said, his receiving efficiency was rather impressive when dealing with quarterbacks who combined for a 54.4% completion percentage and a 2.6% touchdown rate.

Efficiency

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Johnson found plenty of success this season based on his receiving skills and ability to find the end zone. He was the only running back in the top 25 in PPR scoring to have less than 100 carries. He was also one of only four running backs to have more than 70 receptions. He ranked fifth in the NFL in fantasy points per touch of any running back with 50 or more touches, and ranked second, behind only Alvin Kamara out of running backs with 150 or more touches. Furthermore, Johnson finished the season as the RB11, but was 38th in the NFL in touches.

Future Outlook

Johnson’s future looks bright for multiple reasons. He is only 24 years old entering his fourth year in the NFL. He will begin to enter his prime after solidifying his role as a top receiving option in Cleveland’s backfield. He has also proven that he has the potential to be an efficient running back in the red zone, which is something Johnson has not been known for throughout his career.

The Browns’ quarterback situation will also be a lot more fluid in the next couple of years. Last season, DeShone Kizer started 15 games, but Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler also played in four games a piece. The Browns have been rumored to be looking for a quarterback in the NFL Draft, with Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield all possible options. Any of these quarterbacks will likely be an upgrade from Kizer, who had a 53.6% completion percentage and 2.3% touchdown rate his rookie season. If Cleveland opts to move forward with Kizer, it is likely he will continue to progress, even if it is at a minor rate. Regardless, any type of upgrade from Kizer’s play this season will benefit Johnson.

The most important part of Johnson’s future revolves around Isaiah Crowell. Crowell has been the lead rusher for the Browns since Johnson was drafted, totaling 206 carries last season. Crowell is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this off-season, with Spotrac projecting him to land a four-year deal worth an annual salary of $5.6 million. This contract could be a bit too expensive for Cleveland, after Hue Jackson made it a point to say Crowell was not a special runner last season. If Crowell signs with a new team this off-season, Johnson will be left to battle with Matt Dayes, Marquez Williams, and anyone else Cleveland brings in through free agency or the draft. Johnson will have an early lead on these running backs for the lead duties, unless Cleveland brings in a high-end player, such as Saquon Barkley.

There have been some concerns about Josh Gordon taking away targets from Johnson, but that simply was not the case last season. In five games with Gordon in the lineup, Johnson averaged a 4.8/49.4/0.2 line on 5.6 targets per game. Over a 16 game span, this line would equate to 76.8 receptions, 790.4 yards, and 3.2 touchdowns. It seems as if the addition of Gordon into the lineup took away a few targets over a 16 game span, but also made Johnson a slightly more efficient player.

Current Value

Johnson has seemingly been undervalued throughout his entire career. He currently has an ADP of 61.83 – early fifth round. He is also being selected as the RB21, even though he is coming off a breakout season and is still only 24 years old. He could be one of the biggest steals in startup dynasty leagues this off-season, as there seems to be little risk with tremendous upside involved in his current ADP.

Johnson also seems to come with very little trade value compared to his production. Below are some of the trades that took place in 12-team PPR dynasty leagues from October through December involving Johnson.

Matt Ryan/Shane Vereen/2018 Second for Philip Rivers/Duke Johnson
Austin Seferian-Jenkins for Duke Johnson
Jacoby Brissett/2018 Third for Duke Johnson
2018 First for Duke Johnson/2018 Second
Marlon Mack/Jeremy Maclin for Duke Johnson/Pierre Garcon
Larry Fitzgerald/Delanie Walker for Duke Johnson
Trent Taylor for Duke Johnson

As you can see, there have been plenty of trades in the last few months in which owners have sold Johnson for pennies on the dollar. The Taylor/Johnson trade is obviously a bit ridiculous, as the majority of owners would never consider that. But it did happen. He is a player who goes overlooked on a near yearly basis, and that has continued to happen even after he has proven his worth. There is the possibility that an owner in your league values him highly, but you won’t know until you ask, right?

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