FanDuel Bargains: Divisional Round
Welcome back to the FanDuel value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. As always, we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors.
Value players, by nature, are meant to help lineup construction by freeing up cap space for better plays on the week. Ideally, as GPP plays, they also big have upside (and downside) and often rely on volume or unique opportunity due to circumstance. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and projections. Pro-football-reference.com is a constant source of raw stats when judging matchups. I often refer to other metrics often from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
Quarterback
Marcus Mariota, QB TEN ($7600)
Line: -13.5 NE
O/U: 48
OPP: NE
Marcus Mariota is not the only quarterback option this week, but he is the only one currently projected to beat his price rank. With only four options at the position, there isn’t much room for value. Priced as the QB3 on the weekend, Mariota has some space to do it though.
Tennessee is up against a weak New England defense in the highest projected game of the divisional round. New England actually ranks sixth in pure aFPA against the quarterback position based on the last six games of the regular season, but they did give up the ninth-most rushing yards to QBs this season. While Mariota hasn’t been fully healthy down the stretch, he could always break a few runs to bolster his floor. For this value play to work, you have to hope that Mariota can squeeze out a good game trying to play catchup.
Other options: None
Running Back
James White, RB NE ($4900)
Line: -13.5
O/U: 48 NE
OPP: TEN
In a small field of games, the ancillary players on the depth charts who have had decent roles in the past show up as values. They may not be the starters but based on game script, talent or circumstance they could outperform their projections and help you win.
James White is a good price versus projection value. He had 9.4% of the team’s target share in the last five weeks of the season, and 1.0% of air yards since week ten. But, he did also have 8.3% of targets inside the ten-yard line since week ten, and we know that the New England backfield can always shift. Both he and Rex Burkhead could be good values this week depending on which one you think is most likely to get a role in his game and be healthy enough to take advantage.
Other options: Tevin Coleman ($5700), Corey Clement ($4800)
Wide Receiver
Mohamed Sanu, WR ATL ($6000)
Line: -3
O/U: 41 ATL
OPP: PHI
Mohamed Sanu and Nelson Agholor both have 20% or more targets both inside and outside the red zone in the last six weeks. They are the only wide receivers with this usage priced outside of the top five. Eric Decker comes close, but has a 16.7% target share inside the red zone.
Sanu is up against the 23rd-ranked defense in aFPA and had eight targets in the wildcard round of the playoffs last week. He has carved out a great role on this offense and has none of the quarterback concerns Agholor has to deal with or the production struggles Decker has displayed this year.
Philadelphia has been a good defense, but have still given up the 13th-most FanDuel points to receivers and the sixth-most receptions. They have also given up a touchdown on 31.2% of all passing plays inside the ten-yard line, where Sanu has been targeted 25% of the time. He had a target on the 14-yard line last week, a range in which Philadelphia has given up touchdowns 23.2 % of the time.
Other options: Nelson Agholor ($5900), Eric Decker ($5300), Corey Davis ($5300), Chris Hogan ($6600)
Tight End
Austin Hooper, TE ATL ($4800)
Line: -3
O/U: 41 ATL
OPP: PHI
There are no tight ends who present as values from a price/projection standpoint this week. In other words, FanDuel has them priced as they are projected in standard fantasy points by 4for4.com. Given that, I’m interested in Austin Hooper as the fourth-priced tight end because there is a clear drop off in price after the first three.
Hooper has a smaller role than the first three (obviously) with only 12% of targets in the last six weeks of the season and 4% of air yards since week ten. But he did have five targets in the first week of the playoffs, two of which were inside the red zone. His role is big enough that even he could catch a touchdown and provide easy value at the position. However, a word of warning. The matchup is no joke. Philadelphia ranked third in aFPA against the position, and it’s an accurate ranking. They are seriously tough on tight ends.
Other options: Trey Burton ($4700)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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