Breaking Bad Dynasty Takes

Bobby Koch Posted On January 12, 2018

If you came here to learn about how to make meth, you’ll find yourself disappointed. However, if you want to see some bad football takes you’re in the right place.

I often mention on Twitter that I trust people much more when they can admit they were wrong about something. I have sent out a few tweets here and there about players I was wrong about, but those don’t show up in everyone’s timeline. So, I thought to myself, what better way to use the Dynasty League Football platform than to expose myself as a fraud!

Jokes aside, I’m going to take a look at what some of my thought processes were around certain players when I did my team reviews (Breaking Down The Targets) in the off-season. I hope you enjoy the ride.

WILLIE SNEAD, WR NO

I know this is an obvious one, but I figure I’ll start with a player everyone got wrong to ease myself in. I was way too high on Willie Snead. By that, I mean I traded Golden Tate and Duke Johnson for Snead, Laquon Treadwell, and DeAndre Washington because I managed to convince myself with my own article. It was hard not to believe Snead was onto big things. He was coming off a 984-yard season followed by an 895-yard season. Plus, everyone thought his target volume would go up with the departure of Brandin Cooks.

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I was so confident in Willie Snead providing more value than his ADP that I even suggested if you didn’t acquire him back in June when I wrote the article you’d be eaten by Tick-Tock, the alligator from Peter Pan. I think the main take away here is just because another player departs from a team doesn’t ultimately mean another will step up their game. In fact, instead of seizing his opportunity, Snead found himself in immediate trouble by getting suspended.

MARVIN JONES, WR DET

Hey, I successfully managed to predict that Marvin Jones would see at least 100 targets! However, I was way off on any other stat I predicted for him. I knew he had a dominant stretch in 2016, but I was concerned because he really fell off in the second half of the season. I’m not sure anyone saw the top ten finish coming in .5 PPR formats.

What can I learn here? To examine more than just the previous season when I’m able to. For this exercise, I typically only glanced at players’ careers but focused primarily on the prior season. If I had looked at Marvin Jones 2015 more in depth, I may have noticed a player who had been showing growth since his return from the injury that kept him out for all of 2014. Luckily it didn’t bite me in too many leagues, but only because I took a chance in the 15th round of a best-ball startup. I’m not sure I really deserve any credit for that one.

MARCUS MARIOTA, QB TEN

Can I just say the entire Titans offense for the next one? I thought they’d attempt 44 more passes than they did. Pretty sure I can easily explain this one. I have a man crush on Marcus Mariota, hence why I call him Marcus “Marigota” and didn’t account for the regression. In fact, when I realized this season he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, I had a good shower cry. I do think he will bounce back next season (but would likely make any excuse I could for him).

The lesson here should be obvious, but I’ll state it anyway. I let my personal feelings about a player influence what I thought their stats would be. I’m not going to be overly hard on myself for this one though. Why play fantasy unless your lineup is players you want to cheer for? I will say that I could learn to moderate how much I let my fandom of a player influence what I think they’ll do in fantasy. This is likely one of the harder lessons to incorporate.

KEVIN WHITE, WR CHI

Here’s another one. Apparently, in July, I was dreaming of a Bears receiving tandem of Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. I’m going to choose to focus on why I believed Kevin White would have a good year because I think that holds more value for many of you. I believed that with Alshon Jeffery gone, they would need someone to step into the target void created. Why wouldn’t it be their first-round pick from the previous season? If only young me knew about the article that Curtis Patrick would write aptly titled “Mount Bustmore”. In the article, he examined wide receivers drafted in the top ten of the NFL in the past ten seasons and their careers. Let’s just say the results indicated I shouldn’t have been placing any faith in White to ever be productive.

I’m bringing up Kevin White because it seems like we all have players who had high draft capital invested in them that we hold onto. For some of us, it’s Breshad Perriman. For others, it’s Laquon Treadwell. I’m not saying the “breakout” can’t happen, but the historical data is bleak. I know it’s hard to give up the coffee at those truther meetings, but it seems like it’s time to move on from those players.

TYRELL WILLIAMS, WR LAC

In examining another player I was wrong about, we get to a cautionary tale about buying too much into the previous season stats. Despite the return of Keenan Allen, I believed Tyrell Williams could play a complementary role in the offense and would see at least 100 targets. I thought he had shown enough with Allen out to eat into some of his target share when he returned. I vastly underestimated the bromance between Allen and Philip Rivers. While Tyrell put up a respectable showing, he only managed 728 yards and four touchdowns. I thought he would have at least a 900-yard season.

I realize not all undrafted free agents are alike, but Tyrell has made me a bit more cautionary about being as high on UDFAs as I was in the past. Don’t get me wrong, I love when UDFAS break onto the scene because I love an underdog, but it does give me pause. For example, I love Robby Anderson but there is now a slight hesitance I have because I could see the Jets drafting or bringing in another WR to take away the “defacto” number one position from him.

I hope you all now see why I like when people admit when they’re wrong. If you’re right about something, how likely are you to go back and examine why you were right about it? If you’re anything like me, you probably just love the fact you’re right, much to the annoyance of those around you. However, if you’re wrong, you can grow from it. Oh, and make fun of yourself before other people beat you to the punch. Suckers!

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