FanDuel Bargains: Wild Card Weekend
Welcome back to the FanDuel value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. As always, we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors.
Value players, by nature, are meant to help lineup construction by freeing up cap space for better plays on the week. Ideally, as GPP plays, they also big have upside (and downside) and often rely on volume or unique opportunity due to circumstance. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and projections. Pro-football-reference.com is a constant source of raw stats when judging matchups. I often refer to other metrics often from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
Quarterback
Alex Smith, QB KC ($7800)
Line: -8.5 ATL
O/U: 44.5
OPP: TEN
Alex Smith is the priced as the fourth quarterback on this week’s slate and has the 17th-ranked matchup in aFPA according to 4for4.com’s metrics. Tennessee has only given up only one rushing touchdown in the last five games (one out of the last 12 touchdowns against them). In fact, only five out the 36 touchdowns scored against them this season have been rushing and one of those was by a quarterback (Deshaun Watson).
Most scenarios where Smith becomes a high production play this weekend has to include someone on the Titans putting up some points. However, I think he’s got a decent shot to be the source of the majority of production for the Chiefs this week. And with a check down quarterback who depends on his explosive receivers to make plays there’s always an outside shot at a one sided blowout even if they don’t.
Other options: Cam Newton ($8300)
Running Back
Tevin Coleman, RB, ATL ($5800)
Line: -6
O/U: 48.5 LAR
OPP: LAR
Tevin Coleman has the ability to turn any of his touches into home runs. He is an explosive player and fully capable of making good on minimal volume. That is true every week. But in a narrow slate with few options, it has more attraction than usual.
Coleman has been averaging 15.1 touches a game on the season. However, that number drops to eight touches a game if you only look at the last four weeks (since Devonta Freeman‘s return). Still, while there is plenty of risk, he will still see both targets and rushing attempts while priced as the running back ten.
The Rams are a middle of the road defense against running backs according to aFPA, but three of the last six touchdowns against them have been rushing. According to sharpfootballstats.com, they rank 25th against explosive run plays. If I’m going to try and shoot the moon by trolling running back for value, I don’t hate hanging my hat on Coleman’s talent level.
Other options: Leonard Fournette ($8100), Devonta Freeman ($7000), Derrick Henry ($6500)
Wide Receiver
Rishard Matthews, WR TEN ($5500)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 44.5 KC
OPP: KC
Rishard Matthews’s role has shrunk in the last few weeks of the season. He has only managed a 12.1% target share in the last five weeks (excluding week 17). Corey Davis has since expanded his role with 20% target share over the same time span and Eric Decker, whose role has also become more consistent and led the trio with 21.6% of the targets over the same time span. However, both Decker and Matthews have split the target share in the red zone with 16.7% share of the team’s red zone targets inside the ten-yard between weeks ten and 16.
There is a seven point difference between Matthews’ projection and price rank using 4for4.com’s projections this week. Kansas ranks 19th against wide receivers in aFPA and has allowed the second most FanDuel points to the position, the third most touchdowns, the second most yards, and the most receptions. If Tennessee is going to put up any kind of a fight in the playoffs they are going to need more from their receivers. I think Matthews could benefit from the matchup with his role and history of production with Marcus Mariota.
Other options:Â Albert Wilson ($5200), Mohamed Sanu ($5800), Allen Hurns ($5400)
Tight End
Charles Clay, TE BUF ($5500)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 39.5 JAX
OPP: JAX
Being an away favorite against a generational defense on wildcard weekend isn’t a great spot for any player. The argument for Charles Clay as a value tight end is the same as it has been whenever he is healthy. He is one of two decent receiving options on the team, and has even seen his targets rise recently to the tune of a 29% target market share between weeks ten to 16. He led the team in targets each of the last three weeks.
Jacksonville is a tough matchup for both wide receivers and tight ends according to aFPA which places them as seventh against the position based on the last six weeks. But the touchdowns by George Kittle in week 16 and Ricky Seals-Jones in week 12 remind us that they, like every team, are not invulnerable to players with opportunity and raw skill. Clay is a far more polished player than either and certainly has the volume, including 25% of the targets inside the ten-yard line since week ten. He also led the team in targets inside the 20 in the same time span. Being priced as the TE4 this week means he is the lowest-priced tight end with clear amount of volume on the slate. I think he can pay off his price based on his volume and then, as with every tight end, you are just hoping for a touchdown.
Other options: Delanie Walker ($5800)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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