2018 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Nick Chubb

Joseph Nammour

Editor’s note: ahead of a huge day of college football action, make sure you check out today’s early Bowl Game Previews, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl Previews, and all of our 2018 Rookie Profiles. Before you know it, it will be NFL draft day!

Georgia running back Nick Chubb is one of the most talented prospects at the skill positions in this year’s draft. Chubb has overcome adversity stemming from his horrific 2015 injury to return to the elite at his position, which makes him a player worth rooting for.

We’ll break down the good and bad of Chubb’s game, along with some background on the struggles he’s had to overcome.

AS A RECRUIT

Chubb attended Cedartown High School in Cedartown, Georgia and committed to Georgia on June 11, 2013 to join a backfield that already boasted future NFL superstar Todd Gurley. Chubb was a top recruit out of high school; according to 247 Sports, he was a five-star recruit who ranked as the fifth-best running back in the country and the 33rd-overall prospect in the nation.

He received 22 offers in total, including some from the best schools in the country. Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin were just a few of those big names to extend him an offer.

NCAA CAREER: PRE-INJURY

Chubb’s career has been a bit of a roller coaster, through no fault of his own.

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Chubb began his career at Georgia in a timeshare with Todd Gurley, but immediately burst onto the scene amidst Gurley’s suspension and subsequent ACL tear. Chubb’s game log – from the moment he was handed the reins in Georgia’s backfield until his own knee injury – is absolutely insane.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Totaling nearly 1800 yards and 16 touchdowns his freshman season, it was natural to expect a monstrous sophomore campaign from the bruising running back.

He started off on the right foot, rushing for over eight yards per carry through five games. But as you probably know by now, he brutally tore up his knee in his sixth game and missed the rest of the season.

NCAA CAREER: POST-INJURY

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Chubb dislocated his knee, tore his PCL, MCL, and LCL, and suffered cartilage damage, an injury far more serious than a standard ACL tear. However, Chubb was able to return for his junior season in 2016.

Chubb played a full season, compiling over 1200 yards and nine touchdowns, but looked like a shell of his former self. His explosion was sapped, and his agility, acceleration, and top end speed all suffered as a result. The fact that he was able to return at all and perform at the level he did lent optimism to the fact that Chubb had a chance to regain his former brilliance. Following his final game in 2016, Chubb announced that he would return to Georgia for his senior campaign.

And return he did! He led a talented Georgia backfield that also featured Sony Michel and standout freshman D’Andre Swift, improving his yards per carry mark from 5.0 in 2016 to 6.2 in 2017, surpassing 1200 total yards again, and punching in 13 rushing touchdowns.

Despite the improvements in 2017, Chubb still doesn’t look back to his pre-injury self. However, the non-physical aspects of his game that didn’t leave him on that one fateful play are still very much intact, and will leave Chubb a successful talent at the next level for as long as his body permits.

ATHLETIC PROFILE

Chubb’s athletic profile is challenging to pin down because it could change as he continues to heal from his aforementioned knee injury. Other than that major injury, he has no other noteworthy issues worth mentioning.

Pre-injury, Chubb was an elite athlete. At Nike’s The Opening in 2013, Chubb ran a 4.47 in the 40 yard dash at 217 pounds. His SPARQ rating of 143.91 was the best of all running backs there, thanks to his terrific showings in the 20-yard shuttle (4.10 seconds), vertical jump (40.8 inches) and the power throw (43.0 feet).

At 5’10”, 228 pounds, Chubb has the profile of a bruising, downfield runner, which is exactly what he is. A former track star, he no longer has that same long speed he once had, but his short area quickness is returning and he looks significantly better than he did in 2016. His instincts and vision are still phenomenal, and his agility is above average, particularly for someone his size.

DRAFT PROJECTION

Some mock drafts peg Chubb inside the first round, typically following Penn State star Saquon Barkley and LSU standout Derrius Guice, but the majority have him falling out of the first. It’s a shame for a player that looked destined to be the first running back taken in his class years ago, but for as much of a question mark as his knee is long-term, he’s still unlikely to fall out of the top two rounds altogether.

Chubb would slot into the top of the running back depth chart of many teams in the league. He’s not the best option as a pass catcher, but he profiles perfectly as an early-down bruiser and a short-yardage weapon. Many teams would benefit from adding a talent like his, but teams like the Browns, 49ers, Colts, Giants, Lions, and Buccaneers come to mind immediately.

I have Chubb ranked as my fourth-best prospect for rookie draft purposes at this point in the process, following Barkley, Guice, and Courtland Sutton. He’s part of a large tier of running backs that includes Ronald Jones II, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris, and Bryce Love, but I’m not sold on him holding this position throughout the off-season. I’m fascinated to see how he tests at the Combine.

MY THOUGHTS

Chubb is a bruising, downfield runner that runs with tremendous power. His foot speed is elite, and when combined with his terrific vision, he’s able to quickly locate holes, change direction, and explode through the line with good burst. He is capable of bouncing runs to the outside, but an aspect of his game that I appreciate is his willingness to take what’s given to him rather than looking for the home run. As we saw this year with Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt, balance is an incredibly important trait to possess as a runner, and Chubb’s balance is above average.

Chubb does many things well, but where he can struggle is in the passing game. After his standout freshman season, he was hardly used at all as a receiver. He had just 12 receptions in his final three years of school, and partially because he doesn’t have natural hands and there are others in that crowded Georgia backfield that are better options in that regard. As a route runner, Chubb seems uncomfortable at times — he struggles to track the ball in the air and is rarely used on routes other than screens and wheels.

Chubb has improved in pass protection over the years, but still has a ways to go in this aspect of the game as well. For someone so large, he’s inconsistent in this regard mostly because he doesn’t set a wide base, allowing himself to get pushed off his spot before he can anchor.

CONCLUSION

Nick Chubb is the second leading rusher in SEC history, trailing just Herschel Walker. Despite playing in a committee, missing half a year due to injury, and being limited in his first year back, Chubb still produced astronomical numbers. It’s a testament to his talent, work ethic, and determination, all of which should appeal to coaching staffs in the pre-draft process.

He’s the type of running back that opposing defenses hate to see towards the end of a season, when the majority of their players are banged up. A player with his frame can wear a defense down all game, and this is where Chubb excels.

I’m a fan of his, and I hope he continues to recover and has an exceptional career. But without further recovery, he’s not going to be a true game changer at the position — but simply an above average talent.

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