2018 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Derrius Guice
Editor’s note: ahead of a huge day of college football action, make sure you check out today’s early Bowl Game Previews, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl Previews, and all of our 2018 Rookie Profiles. Before you know it, it will be NFL draft day!
In most other rookie drafts, Derrius Guice would be in consideration for the top overall pick. However, Saquon Barkley is a generational prospect who has seemingly wrapped that honor up for the 2018 class, unless something unexpected happens. Guice is still a solid prospect and a great consolation prize for those needing a running back. Let’s take a look at what makes him a special prospect in his own right.
AS A RECRUIT
According to 247Sports, Derrius Guice was the fifth-ranked running back and the 45th-overall prospect coming out of High School. He was highly-recruited, receiving offers from seven different schools, including LSU, Alabama, and Texas. He ultimately chose LSU.
NCAA CAREER
Guice played behind NFL star Leonard Fournette for most of his first two seasons at LSU. He averaged an impressive 8.5 yards per carry on just 51 carries his freshman season, which was good for 436 yards. He added three touchdowns as well as five receptions for 20 yards.
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Fournette missed a lot of time during Guice’s sophomore season due to injuries, which opened the door for Guice to receive a lot more carries than he did the previous year. He took advantage of the increased opportunities, rushing the ball 183 times for 1387 yards (7.6 yards per carry) and fifteen touchdowns. He tacked on nine receptions for 106 yards and one more touchdown as well. Guice really made a name for himself during his breakout sophomore campaign.
He took over the lead role during his junior season this year, rushing 216 times for 1153 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. He has also added 15 receptions for 100 yards. Although his numbers were slightly down this season, at least part of it can be attributed to the nagging injuries he battled over the first half of the season. He started to look healthy against Auburn and averaged 131.5 yards rushing per game over his last six games.
Statistics from sports-reference.com
Guice showed he is capable of catching passes out of the backfield, but LSU has not really asked him to do much receiving over the past three seasons. It seems to be a product of the LSU offense, as there were concerns about Leonard Fournette’s receiving ability coming out of college. Just like Fournette proved he can catch passes, I believe Guice can as well.
ATHLETIC PROFILE
Guice is a freakish athlete with a solid build. He is 5’11’’ and weighs 218 pounds, good size for a running back. He was clocked running a blistering 4.32 40-yard dash at LSU’s elite camp back in 2014. Did I mention he can also squat 650 pounds? Guice was recorded doing so over the summer last off-season. His combination of speed, power, and agility is truly special.
DRAFT PROJECTION
I have seen Derrius Guice projected to be drafted in the late first or early second round in a couple of recent mock drafts. Walterfootball’s latest mock draft has him being selected as the 39th overall pick behind Barkley, Damien Harris, and Bryce Love. Barkley is in a tier of his own, but Guice is clearly my number two running back so far in the process.
As for ideal landing spots, teams like the Buccaneers, Seahawks, Ravens, and Lions come to mind. Tampa Bay is my favorite landing spot for Guice as they could really use a boost in their run game to compliment Jameis Winston and the plethora of talented receivers and tight ends they have. The Ravens have traditionally been a ground and pound team who relies on rushing and defense. Guice could add a new dimension to their offense, which has been lacking explosiveness lately.
The Seahawks and Lions are two more intriguing landing spots as each offense has a talented quarterback with no running back managing to grab ahold of the lead role the past two seasons. Both teams would need to bolster their offensive lines to help out Guice, similar to how the Vikings did so this season to help out rookie Dalvin Cook.
As for dynasty rookie drafts, Guice is currently the number two prospect in many people’s rookie rankings. This can easily change after the combine is held and the landing spots are set, but it could very likely take a top two or three pick in your rookie draft to acquire Derrius Guice.
MY THOUGHTS
I believe Derrius Guice is flying slightly under the radar this season due to the unprecedented hype surrounding Saquon Barkley. Before this season began, there were healthy debates between Guice and Barkley being the top prospect of the 2018 class. However, Barkley had a phenomenal start to the season while Guice battled nagging injuries for the first half of the season. Guice started to get healthier in the second half of the season and exploded for 276 yards rushing against Ole Miss.
LSU strength coach Tommy Moffitt praised Guice’s impressive work ethic in the gym and even went on the say Guice was the next LSU freak athlete. A strong work ethic is an important factor in my prospect evaluation because so many talented players flame out without it. Combine that with his rare combination of speed, power, balance and agility; and Guice could prove to be an exceptional NFL player. I have seen some analysts suggest Guice is more of an athlete than a running back, but I believe Guice’s power and balance will translate well to the NFL. While I would obviously prefer to draft Barkley, I would still be happy if given the chance to draft Guice.
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