ADP Report: Rookie Risers and Fallers
Nearly three months have now passed since the NFL Draft and the uncontrollable feeling of rookie fever has all but passed as training camps slowly open. While the long-hyped rookie class of 2017 is still filled with many desirable players, dynasty owners are also beginning to focus on the lure of immediate production offered by many more experienced players. This had led to a roller coaster of an ADP chart for many rookies. Let’s take a look at how the dynasty value of some of the top rookies has changed over the off-season, with a comparison between the players’ pre-draft startup dynasty ADP as compared to their respective current rank.
Top Risers
Kareem Hunt, KC RB
April ADP: 142
July ADP: 87
Change: +55
Prior to the NFL Draft, Hunt was stuck in the middle of a crowded and deep second tier as the nineteenth rookie off the board in our startup ADP data. While he had many supporters, there were just as many who were concerned he excelled neither as an every-down runner nor as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. This is an example of landing spot changing the trajectory of a player’s value as Hunt was selected by the Chiefs in the third round. Last year, the Chiefs backfield trio disappointed as Jamaal Charles missed the majority of the season with injuries and both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West failed to live up to their play of the previous season. With Charles now gone, Ware is the presumed starter, but there is a growing feeling Hunt could overtake him and given Andy Reid’s history of producing huge running back seasons, the Hunt hype has continued to grow. In our latest data, Hunt is up nine spots to the tenth rookie drafted and he has also become an easy pick to make in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts. Hunt is currently the RB27 in July ADP, being drafted over a full round ahead of Ware.
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Deshaun Watson, QB HOU
April ADP: 204
July ADP: 164
Change: +40
Dynasty players have learned not to count on rookie quarterbacks as fantasy producers and perhaps that is the reason Watson was falling outside of the top 200 players in our April dynasty ADP. While it was obviously unclear of which NFL city the Clemson product would call home as of early April, it was assumed he would be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Eventually, the Houston Texans made Watson their top selection and quarterback of the future, having jettisoned last year’s bust, Brock Osweiler. There has been little news regarding Watson since landing in Houston, but he’s moved from QB23 in April up to QB19 in our latest data. Having only Tom Savage to compete with as camp opens, Watson is an ideal young quarterback to grab as a backup in dynasty leagues, being paired with a veteran like Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Matt Ryan.
James Conner, RB PIT
April ADP: 182
July ADP: 149
Change: +33
By this point, you all know the inspirational story of Conner, the former Pittsburgh back who was diagnosed with cancer early in his junior season. Conner not only beat the disease, but returned to the field for his redshirt junior season in 2016, leading the Panthers in rushing. It was a bit of a surprise when Conner declared early following the season, but no one could blame him after all that he’s been through. When the hometown Steelers made Conner the final pick of the third-round, the immediate reaction was to label it a sentimental pick, but NFL teams don’t make sentimental picks, especially on the draft’s second day. This team needs running back help after opting not to re-sign veteran DeAngelo Williams. Of course, Le’Veon Bell will lead the way, but his history of both off-field issues and injuries helped increase Conner’s value. In April, Conner was an afterthought, falling to the third-round of rookie mock drafts and sporting an ADP of 182 as the twenty-seventh rookie drafted. Now, Conner is a trendy second-round selection as the insurance policy for the superstar Bell, with his startup ADP climbing nearly three rounds.
Samaje Perine, RB WAS
April ADP: 106
July ADP: 74
Change: +32
Perine’s off-season story is much like that of Hunt, as he was viewed as a solid, but not elite, prospect. Perine’ enjoyed an up and down college career, which included setting the FBS single game rushing record during his freshman season at Oklahoma. He battled Joe Mixon for touches and most of the attention of scouts, fans and dynasty players began to focus on the Bengals rookie rather than Perine. Therefore, it was no surprise when Mixon was selected in the second-round while Perine did not hear his name called during the first two days of the draft. He didn’t have to wait long though as the Redskins selected him early in the fourth-round and his dynasty value immediately began to climb. After saying goodbye to Alfred Morris a year ago, Washington was left with a combination of Matt Jones, Chris Thompson and rookie Rob Kelley. While Kelley surprised as the eventual starter, his performance was underwhelming and the Redskins were clearly a team who would be looking to upgrade the backfield. Currently, all four of the back are still on the roster and the team is calling Kelley the starter, but no one believes that will last for long. Perine has climbed from RB33 in April up to RB24 currently. He’s also moved into the late first-round range of rookie drafts. If and when Perine does officially claim the starting job, expect his value to rise evern more.
ArDarius Stewart, WR NYJ
April ADP: 202
July ADP: 174
Change: +28
I’ve said this before, but every time I tuned in to an Alabama game last season, hoping to catch OJ Howard or Calvin Ridley or one of their many talented running backs make a big play, it was always Stewart demanding my attention with his play on the field. That must have been the case for the Jets too, who selected Stewart in the third round, higher than most projected he would be drafted. By mid-May, Stewart was being labeled as a likely starter for the tanking Jets and his dynasty ADP was on the rise. Over the past month, Stewart has been dealing with a pair of injuries (thumb and groin) and has fallen behind fellow rookie Chad Hansen as well as Jalin Marshall. In the end, Stewart should win out in that competition, but this is a bump in the road for his value. Speaking of that long-term value, Stewart has just been a steady riser all off-season, moving from the WR91 in April up to a still quite reasonable WR76 spot in July.Â
Other Risers: Patrick Mahomes (+27), Jamaal Williams (+25), Zay Jones (+24), Josh Reynolds (+20), Taywan Taylor (+20), Alvin Kamara (+19), David Njoku (+19), Mitchell Trubisky (+19), Jake Butt (+18), DeShone Kizer (+18), Joe Mixon (+17), Wayne Gallman (+10)
Top Fallers
KD Cannon, WR NYJ
April ADP: 149
July ADP: 241
Change: -92
This is hard to even recall at this point, but former Baylor wide receiver KD Cannon was once viewed as a potential first-round dynasty rookie pick, and it wasn’t that long ago. In the early off-season, when I put together my first set of rookie rankings, Cannon was hanging around the fringe of the end of a potential first-round, in the early teens. The speedy Cannon probably would’ve been better served with another year of collegiate football, but he can’t be blamed for getting out of Waco as quickly as possible considering all of the off-field issues that program has endured. Despite his blazing speed, Cannon failed to stand out through the draft process and ultimately went undrafted. The Niners, who have loaded up on fast, undersized receivers this off-season under new head coach Kyle Shanahan, quickly signed him as an undrafted free agent. His tenure with San Francisco lasted just over a week as he was cut, reportedly due to trying to show up a teammate in a drill. The Jets claimed Cannon off waivers. Despite their sealed fate as an NFL bottom dweller, the Jets receiver corps is actually pretty crowded. Cannon’s competition for playing time includes the previously mentioned Stewart, along with Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson, Charone Peake, and Chad Hansen, among others. Cannon is no lock to even make the league’s worst roster and dynasty owners have obviously caught on to this possibility. After being drafted among the top 150 players in the league pre-draft, Cannon is routinely going undrafted in mocks and actual startup drafts.
Bucky Hodges, TE MIN
April ADP: 179
July ADP: 241
Change: -62
You’ll quickly see a theme among this group of rookie fallers and that is they all fell much further in the NFL Draft than expected. Vikings tight end Bucky Hodges is another example of this. The athletic former quarterback had dynasty and devy owners drooling, but his hands were a big question during his college career and through the pre-draft process. This concern must have been more of an issue than we understood as Hodges tumbled all the way to the sixth-round when the Vikings took a chance. In Minnesota, Kyle Rudolph is just now coming into his own and finished as the TE2 in fantasy scoring a year ago. Simply put, he’s not going anywhere. This obviously limits Hodges’ playing time for the next few years and his dynasty value has suffered as a result. Believe it or not, the big three rookie tight end group (OJ Howard, Evan Engram, David Njoku) was once viewed as a big four, including Hodges. That draft changed all of that and Hodges is simply a long-term dart throw who is not even being drafted in dynasty leagues.
Malachi Dupre, WR GB
April ADP: 173
July ADP: 231
Change: -58
Again, former LSU receiver Dupre followed a similar path to the other top fallers, except possibly even more extreme. Any devy dynasty players will sheepishly admit Dupre was previously viewed and valued as a top three asset in his class. Yes, he was once expected to be drafted in the same range as his former teammate Leonard Fournette and the other top players of this class. The bottom began to fall out after Dupre’s overrated freshman season though. While many of his struggles were due to the overall poor offense and subpar quarterback play, Dupre didn’t do himself any favors in his sophomore and junior seasons. While his college career didn’t not give us high expectations, Dupre landed in a nice spot as the Packers made him one of the final picks of the entire NFL Draft. His short-term outlook is poor as he must deal with Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and more ahead of him on the receiver depth chart. Beginning as early as 2018, there is hope for Dupre if he can survive and learn the game during his rookie season. Nelson is another year older, Adams will enter free agency and there are already rumors Cobb could be cut following the season. Dupre is still barely hanging on to a small amount of dynasty value, as his ADP of 231 places him in the final round of our DLF dynasty mock drafts. If you have deep rosters, Dupre is a player I’d try to stash and see how his outlook is a year from now.
Isaiah Ford, WR MIA
April ADP: 187
July ADP: 241
Change: -54
Another seventh-round wide receiver was Ford, who landed in a crowded Miami situation. Unlike Dupre, Ford’s dynasty hype was never all that strong, though many did peg him as a sleeper to target in the second-round of dynasty rookie drafts. His prolific numbers posted at Virginia Tech were certainly deserved of consideration, but NFL teams saw something they didn’t like. Like Dupre, Ford has a ton of competition ahead of him to even step foot on the field, including Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and last year’s rookie, Leonte Carroo. This will almost certainly be a redshirt type season for Ford and he’s another player I’d consider holding in deep leagues. He’s currently going undrafted in dynasty startup leagues, according to our July ADP.
Dede Westbrook, WR JAX
April ADP: 185
July ADP: 224
Change: -39
In his final collegiate season, Westbrook and his quarterback Baker Mayfield had a year to remember. In the end, both players earned a trip to New York City as Heisman Trophy finalists. Westbrook was being viewed by many dynasty players as a first-round rookie pick back in the winter months. His stock took repeated hits following the season though, as reports leaked out regarding Westbrook’s injury history, as well as some off the field issues. Also, he opted to skip the Senior Bowl, foregoing the opportunity to repair his suddenly damaged image. Despite some short-lived rumors that Westbrook could go undrafted, he was chosen in the early fourth-round by the Jaguars. While there are some strong players ahead of him, namely Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, Westbrook was made to play the slot role. I expected the draft capital spent on the former Oklahoma wideout to help his dynasty stock, but his ADP has continued to plummet and he’s barely registering in our DLF dynasty mock drafts, currently sporting an ADP of 224.
Other Fallers: D’Onta Foreman (-33), Carlos Henderson (-28), Cooper Kupp (-21), Juju Smith-Schuster (-20), Chris Godwin (-19), Jeremy McNichols (-14), Elijah Hood (-13), Mike Williams (-11), Chad Hansen (-11), Dalvin Cook (-10)
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