Summer Sleeper: New York Jets

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.

Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.

Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Following a disappointing 5-11 season, the New York Jets jettisoned veterans Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Darelle Revis and more, signaling a youth movement that will yield few wins in 2017. The fantasy outlook was already bleak but just got worse with Quincy Enunwa now out for the season with a neck injury. Who’s fired up for a three-man quarterback competition between the likes of Josh McCown, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg passing to a receiver lineup led by sophomore Robby Anderson?

Can a wide receiver or tight end approach fantasy relevance in a likely league-worst offense? Last year, the San Francisco 49ers saw Jeremy Kerley leading the way at wide receiver with a paltry 7.2 fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR. It’s entirely possible the Jets situation ends up a similar mess this season, but we’re in this for the long haul in dynasty. Every Jets wide receiver and tight end aside from Enunwa is cheap and 24 years old or younger, so there’s not much to lose in targeting a player who could perform down the line once the Jets improve (which could be soon if they land one of next year’s stud quarterback prospects.)

My favorite Jets sleeper is the player that I believe has the greatest chance to lead the team in receiving production this year and remain relevant in the future:

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Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE NYJ

Category: Sleeper

Heading into 2013, Seferian-Jenkins was the consensus top tight end after boasting elite college production coupled with a young breakout age. He faced off-field issues and had disappointing production in his final season, but still remained a top three tight end prospect in fantasy rookie drafts.

Despite the tantalizing college profile, the past three seasons have been a long journey for the 24 year old. After an uneventful rookie season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seferian-Jenkins played well in limited action in 2015 while missing nine games in the due to injury. The 2016 off-season saw his work ethic questioned by his coach, a demotion to a timeshare with Cameron Brate, all leading up to a DUI early in the 2016 season. He was subsequently released by the Bucs and claimed by the Jets, who essentially ignored the tight end that season. Seferian-Jenkins was a non-factor in fantasy for the remainder of 2016 and will be suspended for the first two games of 2017.

After such a tumultuous path, it seems Seferian-Jenkins is finally getting back on track. Reports indicate he sought help and attended rehab. Furthermore, he’s been dominating at camp. Is Seferian-Jenkins finally primed for a breakout season, or is this just another comeback narrative that amounts to nothing? His college production coupled with the flashes he showed in 2015 demonstrates that there’s basis for the belief that Seferian-Jenkins can turn around his career, and the Jets provide the perfect environment for doing so.

Given the dismal state of the Jets and their recent lack of usage of the tight end in the passing game, it seems impossible for the team to be a great spot for a tight end whose career was on the verge of ending a season ago. In fact, “lack of usage” is a tremendous understatement. Pointing out that the Jets were dead last in tight end fantasy points the last two seasons doesn’t even do it justice:

Since 2002 at least, the only TE corps to score fewer fantasy points than the 2016 Jets’ are the ’05 49ers, ’05 Bills… and 2015 Jets. pic.twitter.com/OhdZ02nULx

— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) August 7, 2017

Fortunately, there are a number of factors that indicate a dramatic increase in production is in line for the Jets tight end position, and this makes Seferian-Jenkins a dynasty sleeper and a great trade target.

Quincy Enunwa’s Injury (Targets, Targets, Targets)

Volume is everything in fantasy receiving production, and the team may have no choice but to pepper the tight end with targets, since Enunwa’s injury leaves a massive vacuum of receiving opportunity up for grabs:

#Jets now have 46% of their targets (4th-most) and 55% of Air Yards (3rd-most) available. Wow. 273 targets open: https://t.co/LBRw9OdaTt

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 7, 2017

With all of these targets available, it would almost be a mathematical impossibility for the team to continue to ignore the position. (Also worth noting: Enunwa was occasionally used as a blocking tight end, so his injury should at least free up tight end snaps.)

Underwhelming Alternatives

The reason a large share of available targets should be funneled to the tight end is that the list of wide receivers on the Jets depth chart is far from inspiring. Without Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa, this is what’s left:

Yikes. Robby Anderson showed some promise last season and boasts an impressive college production profile, but the rest are a mix of underwhelming prospects, unproven talents and red flags. Robby Anderson is the best bet for immediate production, but it’s more likely any Jets wide receiver worth owning is not on the roster yet.

Fifth round rookie Jordan Leggett presents the only competition at tight end, and between his low draft capital and below-average athleticism, he shouldn’t be much of a threat to Seferian-Jenkins.

A New Offensive Coordinator

Chan Gailey, the coordinator who presided over the reign of tight end despair, has since been replaced by John Morton, former wide receiver coach for the 49ers and Saints. There’s no book on Morton’s tight end usage, but it’s highly unlikely for two consecutive coordinators to virtually ignore the tight end. We can think of this coordinator change as effectively wiping the slate clean in terms of passing tendencies.

Conclusion

There’s a perfect storm brewing in New York that should allow Austin Seferian-Jenkins to turn in a strong season and solidify a role in the Jets’ future. His July dynasty ADP was 204, though with the recent camp reports his price has likely risen a bit. [Editor’s note: he has jumped up to 195 in the August ADP data.] He remains a great trade target for now, but make sure to strike as soon as possible before his price gets even higher with more positive preseason reports and performances.

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