2017 IDP Projections: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively.  So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017.  I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here. 

Notes

The Bucs are a fascinating team.  It always seems like we expect them to break out any second, but I can’t really remember it actually happening.  It certainly seems a long time since they’ve had a dominant defense.  If they did have one recently I’m forgetting it.

They were the number three team in terms of solo tackles per opportunity last season, so it’s a very positive situation for those players expected to rack up high tackle numbers.  Obviously this factors into their dominant linebacker’s statistical output.

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Stars

Kwon Alexander, LB

Kwon is my #9 linebacker for next year.  As mentioned above, Tampa tends to be a very heavy solo tackle stat crew.  The debate about whether Kwon is good or just in a good situation has been played out elsewhere, but whichever is true he certainly puts up the numbers which is all I want from my IDPs,  I see no reason at all for that to change and you can continue to treat him as an every-week starter in almost all formats.

Key stats: 941 snaps, 94 solo tackles, 43 assists, two sacks, three passes defended, one interception.

Vernon Hargreaves, CB

Poor Vernon.  As a rookie he was just victimised.  He certainly seemed a really good talent coming out but even the best rookies tend to struggle in the NFL, and so it proved for him.  He was asked to play over 1,000 snaps as a rookie and inevitably it resulted in him being beaten many times.  Hence his excellent tackle numbers.

I think he’ll be significantly better in NFL terms this year but there’s still the opportunity for him to be an elite IDP option.  Just don’t expect the same as last year.  If he’s that bad again he’ll likely be benched.  I have him at #8 in my corner rankings.

Key stats: 1,020 snaps, 53 solo tackles, ten assists, 14 passes defended, two interceptions.

Starters

Lavonte David, LB

I feel sick to my stomach with David way down at #39 but it is scarily possible.  The job he’s asked to do is simply not that productive.  He spends a lot of time taking on blockers and creating space for Kwon to make plays.  I do think he’ll be a little better than this and maybe even an LB2, but anyone hoping for a return to elite production is likely to be disappointed.

Key stats: 824 snaps, 60 solo tackles, 36 assists, three sacks, four passes defended.

Brent Grimes, S

Miko!  More Miko!  Let’s be honest – she’s the most fun thing about the Grimes family.

I expect him to be another startable corner next year with a pretty high tackle number.  He’s at #25 in my system.

Key stats: 777 snaps, 49 solo tackles, nine assists, one sack, 12 passes defended, one interception.

JJ Wilcox, S

I think the Bucs are going to use a clearer division of labour this year in the second season under Mike Smith, and for my money Wilcox is the clubhouse leader for the top job.  The team drafted Justin Evans fairly high, but for my money he’s a natural free safety.  Assuming Wilcox wins the job (and the $6.25m contract suggests he’s got a good chance) he’s my #15 ranked safety in 2017.  Plenty of people are high on Keith Tandy,and he could secure this job, but I’m not convinced.

Key stats: 980 snaps, 66 solo tackles, 15 assists, one sack, seven passes defended, three interceptions.

Useful

Gerald McCoy, DT

I know he’s a great talent when on top of his game, but I have McCoy down at the #29 tackle spot for next season.  I really hope the addition of Chris Baker frees him up to make more plays, but based on the historic production of Mike Smith’s defenses I can’t predict it.

Key stats: 735 snaps, 23 solo tackles, 12 assists, three sacks, two passes defended.

Noah Spence, DE

Spence is up at #45 in the model, and honestly I think this is too high.  In my eyes he’s a pretty one-dimensional pass rusher who was too lightweight to be really good in the running game even before the reports came out in the off-season that he’s slimmed down to add speed.  I know he’s a popular choice for a breakout, but I’m very much not on that train. 

Key stats: 608 snaps, 24 solo tackles, 12 assists, four sacks, two passes defended.

William Gholston, DE

Gholston has been fairly effective at times over the last two years, but he’s not someone that has screaming upside so I have him at #60.  A good season for him would be five sacks, and I want better than that for my depth players.  It’s just not something exciting enough to spend a roster spot on in most leagues.

Key stats: 533 snaps, 18 solo tackles, ten assists, three sacks, one pass defended.

Justin Evans, S

The Bucs clearly like Evans, drafting him as a top 50 pick.  But as I said earlier, I think he’s a deep player in style.  He measured in at slightly less than 200 lbs, was very good in coverage but missed tackles in college.  I’ll be really surprised if he puts up big tackle numbers in the NFL.  I predict he’ll be the #56 safety.

Key stats: 728 snaps, 51 solo tackles, 19 assists, four passes defended, one interception.

Summary

This should be a really fun team to watch.  The offense will be spread out and exciting and there’s potential breakout players all over the defense.  Spence, Hargreaves and the use of their safeties in particular should be good to watch carefully early in the season.

Those are my predictions as of right now.  Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season.  If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

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