I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.
Notes
The Eagles are one of those teams I don’t really have strong feelings about. Even during the period they went to the NFC Championship game all those times in a row, it never felt like they were a top team. They’ve rarely been bad enough to feel sorry for either. Maybe it’s because I’ve never visited the city beyond the airport for transfers. Either way, I’m not that excited about them for 2017 and beyond which is strange given they’ve got a line in particular that looks fearsome. Let’s see if that will translate into IDP production, shall we?
Stars
Fletcher Cox, DT
Cox is the top of the tree. He’s my #1 tackle for 2017. Jim Schwartz is clearly a top line coach and with the array of talent on the line they’ve attained this should be a really tough unit to gameplan for. And Cox may be the best player on the unit. I remember Bill Belichick expounding only a year and a bit ago about what a great player he is. I think this season will be when he becomes a real star.
Key stats: 864 snaps, 35 solo tackles, 18 assists, eight sacks, three passes defended.
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Jordan Hicks, LB
Hicks is right up there at #7 for me. Okay, that’s slightly outside of my ‘official’ elite range but I want to include him. I’ve said many times that I want linebackers who are exceptional in coverage and there aren’t many more able than Hicks to play in space. The numbers my model spits out for him are fairly light on coverage plays and I would expect them to go up if anything.
Key stats: 1,080 snaps, 85 solo tackles, 58 assists, two sacks, three passes defended, two interceptions.
Starters
Timmy Jernigan, DE
There’s certainly a chance he could be DT-eligible on MFL in which case you should take advantage. Jernigan is flexible, but he’s a far better player than his production in Baltimore indicates and I think he’ll do much better in Philly. He’s my #16 end assuming that’s the designation he gets.
Key stats: 654 snaps, 28 solo tackles, 15 assists, five sacks, one pass defended.
Brandon Graham, DE
Graham was very quietly one of the very best edge players in the league last season. His 83 total pressures was higher than any other edge player bar Olivier Vernon who rushed the passer 150 more times. It didn’t turn into sacks, but that would be likely to change even if the Eagles hadn’t added other players to occupy linemen. Graham is going to eat this year. Sign him up.
The model has him at #17 but personally I think he has every chance to finish higher than that.
Key stats: 836 snaps, 33 solo tackles, 17 assists, seven sacks, three passes defended.
Nigel Bradham, LB
Bradham was a decent stop-gap last year and I expect that to continue with him at #38. I think he’s a great example that even if a player is a starting NFL linebacker he may not be a good fantasy asset. He’s fine but I’m not excited by him.
Key stats: 838 snaps, 56 solo tackles, 23 assists, three sacks, six passes defended, two interceptions.
Patrick Robinson, CB
Whew! The Eagles corner situation is a flat-out mess. Sidney Jones will help when he can get on the field but the unit needs much more than that. From an IDP point of view, Robinson is my current favourite at #14 but I don’t really want to invest in any of them at this stage.
Key stats: 842 snaps, 49 solo tackles, seven assists, 16 passes defended, two interceptions.
I have McLeod at #22. Maybe I inherently don’t like him because of the old teacher I had called McLeod. He was an idiot. With a combover. McLeod seems like he’ll be starting quality, but I’m fairly low on him.
Key stats: 999 snaps, 56 solo tackles, 21 assists, one sack, ten passes defended, two interceptions.
Useful
Chris Long / Derek Barnett, DE
Remember earlier I said there was a lot of talent on the line? Having either of these players down at third option at end is tough to believe. One of them being the number four option is crazy. Timmy Jernigan could well be lower but I’m assuming the Eagles don’t just play a NASCAR front with lightweight pass rushers as a base.
Whichever of these players comes out first in the rotation will be my #51 with the other at #103. I love Barnett but I won’t be at all surprised if he’s used sparingly to keep him fresh as a specialist pass rusher as a rookie.
Key stats: 535 snaps, 21 solo tackles, 17 assists, three sacks, one pass defended.
Key stats: 317 snaps, ten solo tackles, seven assists, two sacks, one pass defended.
It’s a huge drop here in my rankings with him way down at #68. This seems crazy but remember he only managed 44 solos and 25 assists in 16 games last year. Don’t fall into the trap of remembering his glory years and thinking he’s the same player. One of the reasons is how much corner he had to play last season, but realistically has that changed? I think he’s not the player he was as he nears 30 and he’s in a pretty bad situation for producing. A prime trade-away candidate for me I’m afraid.
Key stats: 686 snaps, 35 solo tackles, 14 assists, two sacks, seven passes defended, one interception.
Summary
Although I started out saying how ambivalent I was about this team, I ended up getting quite excited about the pass rushers on the line and Jordan Hicks. I even sent out a trade offer for him whilst I was writing this. I don’t think the current era in Philly is going to work out any different. It’ll fall apart in a year or two’s time and the team will break up. But there’s certainly some fun to be had in the short term. Don’t be surprised if they’re right at the top of league sacks in 2017.
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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Fantastic as always, Tom.
On Jordan Hicks – what would you say has changed from last year to this year that warrants such an increase in production? He was only the #32LB in my league last year.
I have the same question. Don’t get me wrong, I have Hicks and would be elated with a 40% increase in tackles. But, I’m curious as to what could change for him this year vs last year.
Maybe the switch from 3-4 to 4-3 and the rise in opportunity
Any chance for Mychal Kendricks to be relevant this year?
Not one mention of Vinny Curry. He may even be a possible cut, with all this talent on the D Line.
Could it be that his defensive scheme has evolved since he left Detroit? Looking at the splits:
Before: 86/30 avg
After: 67/37 avg
I haven’t watched any tape though so can’t say for sure.
Love these DIP projection articles, really helping me in my startup going on right now!
IDP*
