The Player or the Pick?
After a brief break from the Player or the Pick, it’s time to get back to the action! The value of draft picks has changed greatly over the past few months as we’ve all witnessed the NFL Draft, and the landing spots of each of the key rookies has given clarity to the actual value of the rookie picks.
With this latest version, I wanted to test some different theories about how to judge player value. These Player or the Pick Twitter polls are almost certainly viewed as trade questions with a current player pitted against a draft pick.
As the ADP gatekeeper, I am often asked about using that data as a trade chart of sorts. While ADP can be useful in creating trade offers, building teams through a startup draft and formulating trades are two different entities. With that being said, I chose to use that ADP as a guide in choosing which players I would include in this week’s Player or the Pick polls. Let’s find out how it played out!
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Which would you prefer for your dynasty team? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 27, 2017
This first Twitter poll included seasoned veteran Greg Olsen, who has finished as a top seven fantasy tight end each year since 2012, and the 2.01 rookie pick. This is a potential game-changing year for the overall scope of the tight end position with three first-rounders entering the league, along with several other possible impact players. Looking at our current startup ADP, Olsen is coming off the board between a pair of those rookies, OJ Howard and Evan Engram, with David Njoku following close behind. While Howard is almost always being drafted as a top 12 player in dynasty rookie drafts, there is often a quality tight end remaining on the board when the 2.01 pick goes on the clock. It is because of this idea I chose the early second-round pick to face off against Olsen.
There are some legitimate reasons for Olsen owners to be concerned. While Olsen did finish as the TE3 last season, he was outside of the top 12 from Week Eight on, eclipsing 15 fantasy points just once. The entire Panthers offense could be in store for some changes with the addition of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel and at age 32, Olsen may not have many years left as a top fantasy producer.
In this poll, he still takes down the 2.01 rookie pick by a ten percent margin, which is understandable considering the poor historical track record of rookie tight ends in general. Hunter Henry was viewed as a huge success in 2016, his rookie season, but he still finished as the TE19 and was very touchdown dependent.
Which would you prefer to have on your dynasty team? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 27, 2017
This next poll was really a microstudy of using ADP as a trade chart, especially when it comes to comparing rookies and veterans. This poll was not close, just as I predicted. In fact, I received more than one “are you serious?” responses to even asking the question.
In May’s dynasty data, Julian Edelman, the Patriots veteran receiver, has an ADP of 77 overall. Just below him, wide receiver John Ross has an ADP of 77.3 and is the eighth rookie drafted. For good measure, I chose to match Edelman against the 1.09 rookie pick, which could be someone like Saints running back Alvin Kamara, coming in with an 80.8 May ADP.
So, why would the results of this poll be so far off when our startup ADP suggests the players should be valued similarly? There are a couple of reasons that come to mind. First, Edelman is a descending asset.
Using our Dynasty ADP Comparison tool, we see Edelman’s ADP has plummeted in the past year and a half. While he’s likely to see an uptick in value during the season, as veterans often do, his value will never reach to peak it did last off-season. Dynasty owners understand this and are generally not willing to invest young assets or draft picks to acquire this type of player. Also, as I mentioned earlier, building a team through a startup draft and making trades in an established league are very different processes.
Multiple times in recent weeks, I’ve been approached by leaguemates seeking to sell veterans, quoting our dynasty ADP and relating the veteran value to the rookie being drafted in that proximity. This is not the best process and rarely will work. This poll is just one example of why that is so.
Which would you prefer on your dynasty team? #playerorthepick
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 27, 2017
The final poll came from a similar place as Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2016, is currently being drafted between Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook, the third and fourth rookie backs off the board. For many of the same reasons as discussed above with the Edelman poll, I expected the pick to prevail here, but the margin is a surprise. Nearly the same large gap was found in this poll as well, despite Ajayi’s value arguably being on the upswing still.
The appeal of the 1.03 rookie pick is choice. I already mentioned both Mixon and Cook likely being available with that pick and other options include Christian McCaffrey or even Leonard Fournette, in rare instances.
While Ajayi was impressive last season, it didn’t start well. He was actually a healthy scratch early in the season and later part of the disastrous four-man backfield committee before finally claiming the job and changing the trajectory of the Dolphins’ season. There is still some concern in the fantasy community regarding Ajayi’s injury history, specifically a bad knee that initially caused him to tumble down the draft board a couple of seasons ago. It’s fair to say if you’re selling Ajayi, you’ll have to aim lower, most likely a mid-first round pick.
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