2017 IDP Projections: Miami Dolphins

Tom Kislingbury

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively.  So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017.  I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here. 

Notes

Firstly, let’s get it out in the open.  The Dolphins are my least favourite team in the NFL.  I’ve been a Patriots fan since 1997 and one of my best pals over here in the UK is a big Dolphins fan, so it’s always been a fun rivalry.  That almost certainly has a significant effect on my views on Dolphins players.  Don’t @ me.

I thought their defense was a mess last year.  They’ve got an old line on absurd contracts, their big linebacker signing was someone fans think is old and bad, and the secondary is uninspiring to say the least. 

Having said that there are a few players I really like for IDP purposes and am happy to recommend, even if it kills me to have to cheer for them to do well.

Sorry for my jaundiced views, Dolphins fans.  If it makes you feel better I pity you as much as I dislike the team.

Stars

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Ndamokung Suh, DT

Technically he’s not an elite option in my system at the #10 tackle, but I still value him as such.  The last two years he’s played a simply ridiculous snap count as the Dolphins try desperately to get something approaching value for his silly deal.  He counts over $19m for this (his age 30) season and it goes up for the next three years.  This is hilarious for a player who hasn’t had double digit sacks since his rookie year in 2010.

Anyway, as a result of the volume, he’s one of the five or so tackles you need to have one of in DT-premium leagues.

Key stats: 749 snaps, 26 solo tackles, 12 assists, seven sacks.

Cameron Wake, DE

Here’s another silly contract.  Wake counts $7.5m against the cap this season – as a 35-year-old pass rusher.

Regardless, he’s been excellent, and the Dolphins still clearly believe in him.  I expect a drop-off but for him to still be the #5 end in IDP.  Admittedly I’m less confident of this one, but the model loves him.

Key stats: 900 snaps, 38 solo tackles, 22 assists, nine sacks, one pass defended.

Xavien Howard, CB

Howard is another player the model loves.  The high solo tackles and passes defended numbers here really beef him up.  I rate him as the #6 in IDP.

Key stats: 878 snaps, 55 solo tackles, 15 assists, one sack, 11 passes defended, one INT.

Starters

Kiko Alonso, LB

I’ve said it many times, but linebacker in the NFL is now a pass-first position, and the mobile players tend to be the ones that produce.  Kiko isn’t the athlete he was before the injuries but he’s still plenty fast enough to perform well in space.  He’s my #13 linebacker and a very good option at his current price.

Key stats: 858 snaps, 79 solo tackles, 52 assists, two sacks, seven passes defended, one INT.

Lawrence Timmons, LB

Timmons is another bargain.  Everyone (especially Dolphins fans) seem to want Raekwon McMillan to play ahead of Timmons, but the team gave him a very generous contract given his age (do you see a trend here?) and Raekwon is very raw in coverage.  I like Timmons as my #40 option in deeper leagues.

Key stats: 696 snaps, 62 solo tackles, 33 assists, one sack, six passes defended, one INT.

Byron Maxwell, CB

Here’s another overpaid veteran.  Maxwell is on $7.5m this year.  He’s the archetypical corner who gets targets because he’s not good, and I think he parlays that into the #23 cornerback spot in 2017.

Key stats: 1,000 snaps, 45 solo tackles, 12 assists, 14 passes defended, two INTs.

Reshad Jones, S

I have him at #28, which is disappointingly low given his past exploits.  It’s based on the new defensive coordinator Matt Burke coming from the Marvin Lewis and Vance Joseph coaching tree where safety interchangeability is valued highly.  I’d love Jones to come back to IDP prominence but the model does not think that’s coming this year.

Key stats: 1,061 snaps, 56 solo tackles, 27 assists, one sack, ten passes defended.

Useful

William Hayes, DE

He’s 32 years old and is being paid $4.75m.  How very unlike the Dolphins.  I actually like Hayes.  He’s a good player.  If he can get on the field more than Charles Harris, then I expect him to finish as high as the #29 end.

Key stats: 853 snaps, 28 solo tackles, 19 assists, four sacks, five passes defended.

Charles Harris, DE

I was pretty surprised at Harris going as high as he did in the NFL draft (number 22 overall).  I thought he was a bit one-dimensional in college as a pure pass rusher, which would be fine if he had the athletic profile to be a good one – but he ran a 4.82 40 and a 7.47 3-cone at 253 pounds. His broad jump was slightly over nine feet, which I think I could match on a good day.  I just can’t see him beating out the good vets around him for significant snaps as a rookie.  He’s my #84 end for 2017.

Key stats: 436 snaps, 14 solo tackles, seven assists, two sacks, two passes defended.

Raekwon McMillan, LB

He’s got a really cool name, which is nice and all, but doesn’t balance out the fact he was not a good player in coverage.  He lacked instincts and agility to me which makes him a liability in the NFL.  Think of Tom Brady licking his lips at tormenting him twice a year.  I have him way down at the #76 linebacker.

It’s also worth noting that although there was a media report of him lining up at Mike in OTAs, this in no way guarantees he will stay on the field.

Key stats: 470 snaps, 41 solo tackles, 23 assists, one sack, four passes defended., one INT.

Summary

So, whilst I warned you of my dislike for the team, I then went and included three players as stars.  Given there are only 30 stars between 32 NFL teams, this is high praise indeed.  I won’t own many of these players because I hate wanting them to be good and bad at the same time but there are some really good opportunities here – not to mention a ringside seat to yet another enormously disappointing Dolphins season.

Those are my predictions as of right now.  Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season.  If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

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tom kislingbury