2017 IDP Projections: Kansas City Chiefs

Tom Kislingbury Posted On June 28, 2017

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.

Notes

The Chiefs are 43-21 in the regular season over the last four seasons. They finished in the top ten in yards and points against last season, and no team has more than their 40 interceptions across the last two years. They’re a legitimate defense. Yet how many IDP stars do they have?

There’s just not much excitement surrounding the team. Part of that’s due to Andy Reid and Alex Smith, and part of it’s small-market syndrome. Either way it’s a shame. I love Chiefs fans – they were great fun when they came to London a couple of years ago.

Annoyingly the Chiefs are also a bottom-ten team in assists as per the stat crew. This generally means that their safeties and inside linebackers tend to be a little bit weaker compared to other teams equivalents.

Stars

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

None I’m afraid. One or two have potential to move up, but there’s just no one I’m desperate to have on my teams.

Starters

Bennie Logan, DT

Logan is my #19 after the departure of Dontari Poe. I’ve got him down for a heavy workload but the Chiefs scheme somewhat limits the production of individual linemen.

Key stats: 875 snaps, 32 solo tackles, nine assists, three sacks, two passes defended.

Chris Jones, DE

I love Jones’ talent. He’s a really fun player to watch and a hugely talented pass-rusher. But he’s stuck at 5-tech and will spend a lot of time being double teamed. I expect him to be the #37 end in 2017.

Key stats: 644 snaps, 27 solo tackles, 14 assists, four sacks, two passes defended.

Derrick Johnson, LB

He’s 34 going on 35. There’s no avoiding it. But this is Andy Reid. He’ll play reliable vets until the wheels fall off. I expect Johnson to stay a useful starter this year before being let go next offseason. He’s my #24 linebacker and great value given you can get him for basically free.

Key stats: 980 snaps, 86 solo tackles, 19 assists, three sacks, five passes defended, one INT.

Marcus Peters, CB

He’s the best corner in the league in terms of getting his hands on the ball. Peters followed up his rookie season by proving he can be productive even without monstrous target volume. I fully expect him to finish as the #24 corner and in leagues with heavy PD/INT scoring this should be much higher.

Key stats: 1,024 snaps, 41 solo tackles, six assists, 18 passes defended, three INTs.

Eric Berry, S

Berry is a solid starter who gets high volume. I expect him to be the #17 safety. But given he’s so expensive based on name recognition and the (wrong) belief he plays strong safety, he’s generally not someone I own.

Key stats: 1,058 snaps. 72 solo tackles, 9 assists, one sack, eight passes defended, one INT.

Useful

Rakeem Nunes-Roches, DE

The best thing about him is his awesome name. He’s a solid piece but again it’s not a scheme that rewards good ends. I expect him to be the #54 end and very hard to justify owning.

Key stats: 443 snaps, 23 solo tackles, ten assists, two sacks, one pass defended.

Justin Houston, LB

Houston is actually one of my top OLBs up at #45. I’ve got him down for a return to double-digit sacks. He’s very much a solid target in big-play leagues.

Key stats: 875 snaps, 41 solo tackles, ten assists, 11 sacks, four passes defended, one INT.

Ramik Wilson, LB

Similar to Arizona, the Chiefs scheme is one where the second inside linebacker is pretty inferior to the top man. There’s a chance Wilson (or Ukeme Eligwe) eats into Derrick Johnson’s production but I’m not betting on it given Reid’s proclivity for conservativeness. He’s way down at my #77 linebacker.

Key stats: 615 snaps, 51 solo tackles, 12 assists, two passes defended, one INT.

Steven Nelson, CB

The thing the Chiefs scheme does do well for is nickel backs. Nelson had an excellent season as a tackler last year and I expect that to continue. He’s my #33 corner and could be useful in leagues where corners are valued.

Key stats: 508 snaps, 42 solo tackles, seven assists, one sack, 14 passes defended, two INTs.

Kenneth Acker, CB

I quite like Acker. I’m not entirely sure why the 49ers let him go considering their roster. Whatever – it’s the Chiefs gain as he fills in as the player to be most targeted by quarterbacks who know well enough to avoid Marcus Peters on the other side. I’ve got him at #39 corner.

Key stats: 801 snaps, 47 solo tackles, six assists, ten passes defended, three INTs.

Summary

Basically, I think the Chiefs are a bit frustrating. They tend to be a better unit than the sum of their parts and because of the slow pace the defence aren’t actually on the field that much in snap terms. Therefore there’s a lower number of tackle opportunities than other teams enjoy.

Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

[/am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

Latest posts by Tom Kislingbury (see all)