2017 IDP Projections: Green Bay Packers
I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.
Notes
I feel the fact the Packers made it all the way to the NFL title game has somewhat masked our memory of last season and therefore expectations of 2017. For much of 2016, they were not an elite team. It’s just that Aaron Rodgers can win games on his own. The Packers gave up the 11th-most yards and 12th-most points last season, and their cornerbacks in particular were abysmal. They used their first four draft picks on defensive players but I’m not entirely convinced that the defense as a whole will be categorically better than it was last year.
The Packers are also tough to predict because it’s such a funky scheme. It’s very unusual in personnel groupings, and they have a ton of very odd fronts they show. Add in the stable approach to inside linebacker, and it’s a bit of a tall task quite frankly. Nonetheless, here are my projections.
Stars
Kevin King, CB
OK. I know this is punchy, but I really think he could be a breakout. The whole unit was atrocious last season and King was their top draft pick. I’m confident he’ll be on the field early and often. In addition to that, he’s long and has playmaking ability so I like him to fit into the Packers scheme where the corners are asked to do a lot. Add in potential return ability (not included in the model but a lovely bonus) and I think he could well be an elite IDP as a rookie. So much so that he’s my #3 corner!
Key stats: 954 snaps, 58 solo tackles, 12 assists, fourteen passes defended.
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I know his time could well be coming to an end, but I don’t care. I want him on my team. The Packers basically run a big nickel base scheme which means that their safeties have to be flexible. Burnett is the exception – he’s pretty much just an extra linebacker. There are few better spots in the IDP world than a safety who plays so much in the box. He’s my #7 safety.
Key stats: 831 snaps, 72 solo tackles, 30 assists, one sack, six passes defended, one INT.
Starters
He’s my #11 safety for the same reason as Burnett is a star. In the big nickel / three safety scheme Clinton-Dix is asked to do a lot, and he’s such a good player he’s effective all round. He also tends to slide down into the box more when Burnett is injured which makes him very attractive long-term.
Key stats: 936 snaps, 69 solo tackles, 21 assists, one sack, five passes defended, two INTs.
Useful
Kenny Clark, DT
The Packers use their defensive linemen less than any other team in the NFL. It’s very frustrating. So although I expect Clark to be the starter I still only see him getting a small number of snaps. That holds him back, and so all I can project him as is the #57 tackle.
Key stats: 480 snaps, 19 solo tackles, ten assists, one sack, one pass defended.
Mike Daniels, DE
People will likely think this is low, but take a moment to consider Daniels has 22 career sacks in 78 games. He’s a fine player but his role in Green Bay is not one that produces stats. He’s still startable in bigger leagues but he just doesn’t play enough to be higher than my #32 end.
Key stats: 685 snaps, 27 solo tackles, 15 assists, five sacks, four passes defended.
Montravius Adams, DE
I’ve got him making a breakthrough in his second season but again he won’t see the volume to be a useful IDP asset. I have him as the #60 end.
Key stats: 506 snaps, 19 solo tackles, 11 assists, three sacks, one pass defended.
Joe Thomas / Jake Ryan / Blake Martinez, LB
Just like the Giants, the Packers linebacker situation is horrible. There’s no clear leader. They don’t invest high draft picks. No-one has stood out. Yuk.
What I’m starting to come around to is that there really isn’t a “starter” worthy of the name. Whoever lines up for the first play is not going to be there each and every week. They’ve rotated middle linebackers for several years and that’s not going to change. So rather than me telling you which one I think is in pole position I’m just going to make the point that it’s unlikely any of the three players stands out as an excellent IDP. In my system they’ll be the #42, #69 and #105 linebackers. Given the one in three chance of getting only a top 45 player I’ll just be steering clear.
Thomas key stats: 867 snaps, 58 solo tackles, 32 assists, three sacks, four passes defended.
Ryan key stats: 503 snaps, 53 solo tackles, 19 assists, one sack, three passes defended.
Martinez key stats: 342 snaps, 36 solo tackles, 14 assists, one sack, two passes defended.
Clay Matthews, OLB
I’ll be going through all the outside linebackers after I’ve covered off the 32 teams, but for those interested I think Clay will bounce back and be the best outside option on the team. Using NPLB scoring he’s my #61 at the position.
Key stats: 735 snaps, 31 solo tackles, 19 assists, ten sacks, four passes defended.
Davon House, CB
This is a spot that’ll be worked out in camp and preseason. It could be House, could be Ladarius Gunter, or Damarious Randall too. Whatever. The #47 cornerback is nothing I’m really excited about.
Key stats: 737 snaps, 44 solo tackles, nine assists, one sack, twelve passes defended.
Josh Jones, S
He’s clearly a good dynasty play given Burnett’s age, but for me Jones is the clear third safety for 2017 and without big injuries he won’t be that useful. He’s my #52 safety.
Key stats: 724 snaps, 48 solo tackles, ten assists, one sack, seven passes defended, two INTs.
Summary
A lot of this boiled down to “Dom Capers is confusing”. Sorry about that. There are some nice players here in the secondary but to be honest I’m not that interested in many players from their front seven. There are wins to be had there but you’ll need a healthy dose of luck to make those picks work out well.
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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