Part-Time Pass Rushers Who Could Explode in 2017

My first job was nearly a decade ago, when I got hired at a movie theater as a concessions cashier and usher. It was a fairly simple job, but many of the days were monotonously slow. After all, there are only so many ways to sweep up slushy pools and popcorn dust from under chairs.

Still, that part-time gig got me a job on my resumé, some money in my pocket, and helped me move forward in the future as I looked for more stable full-time work.

We see a similar progression with many NFL pass-rushers: they start at the low end first (situational roles only), then have a chance to freelance a little more (rotational roles), and finally — once they’ve proven themselves — they are given a chance for a full-time job as starters.

But everyone has to start somewhere.

As IDP players, we strive to identify those premium pass-rushing staples before they break out. If we recruit the best talent to our fantasy team before our competitors are even aware, that’s a huge edge.

So, which 2016 part-time pass-rushers deserve a corner office going forward? Who among them is most likely to break out in 2017?

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The Method

Sometimes we see the inklings of sacks artists emerge when players rack up a solid amount of quarterback takedowns on a very low snap count. What we really want to see, though, is consistent disruption; that comes in the form of quarterback hits.

I examined the 282 edge players to see a snap last year (per FantasyData.com) and compared their statistical output to their number of plays on the field. When we see how many quarterback hits players get in limited snap counts, we can see how often they are getting to the passer — and how much potential they may have for sacks and big-play IDP scoring in the future.

For reference, the average edge rusher sack rate last year was 0.90 percent, and the average quarterback hit rate was 1.70 percent.

We also don’t want to identify players who have already gone off in the NFL, so I set a maximum of 20 percent of team defensive snaps played and a 100-snap minimum for a solid sample size of playing time.

Armonty Bryant, DET

There’s every likelihood that the Detroit Lions plug defensive lineman Kerry Hyder into the starting end spot opposite Ezekiel Ansah, but there’s opportunity here to seize with Devin Taylor walking to free agency this offseason. This open competition at the strong-side end spot could lead to more chances for former Cleveland Browns seventh-round pick Armonty Bryant.

Bryant played 104 snaps in 2016 for the Lions — hardly a tall total for a defense that was terrible — but he saw his playing time crunched due to seven games’ worth of suspensions for PED’s and substance abuse, as well as hitting the injured reserve after Week 13. It was a star-crossed 2016 season for Bryant, but his 2.88 percent quarterback hit rate and sack rate gave him the highest disruption rates among our low-snap players. Bryant is going on 27 and is probably free in most leagues.

Corey Lemonier, NYJ

“Pass-rusher” is a loosely defined term when used to describe New York Jets edge player Corey Lemonier. For a former top-100 pick, he’s been really bad at finishing off his sacks, with only one total for his career before 2016. This past year, however, he worked into the Gang Green edge rotation and churned out two whole new sacks on a paltry 135 snaps.

Lemonier turns 26 this November, but it’s never too late for a breakout. His 2.22 percent quarterback hit rate in 2016 was fifth-best among the players in our study, and his 1.48 percent sack rate was third-best. The biggest obstacles to his playing time are third-round projects Lorenzo Mauldin and Jordan Jenkins; he could be an interesting big-play IDP league stash.

Kyler Fackrell, GB

The Green Bay Packers are begging for pass-rushers to enter their rotation and contribute. Julius Peppers has left and Clay Matthews is getting old and less durable. That’s a big reason why rookie Vince Biegel was selected in the fourth round of the 2017 Draft, and why Kyler Fackrell was taken a year and round earlier.

Fackrell is going on 26 in just his second NFL season, but comes with an immense pass-rushing pedigree and big-time athleticism from the Mountain West Conference.  In his rookie 2016, too, Fackrell picked up a strong 1.86 percent quarterback hit rate and 1.24 percent sack rate on just 161 snaps. He could develop into a big-time contributor on the edge for the Pack.

Ronald Blair, SF

Rotoworld’s Josh Norris once called San Francisco 49ers edge player Ronald Blair a “poor man’s Everson Griffen”; to me, that’s a huge compliment. The 6’4”, 270 pound Blair came out of small-school Appalachian State in 2016 with 53.5 tackles for a loss and 20.5 sacks in 51 games started. He hasn’t yet gotten as many chances to start (or play) in the NFL, turning in just 311 snaps in his rookie campaign last year, but that hasn’t stopped the 24-year-old from having an impact. His 2.57 percent quarterback hit rate was the third-most among our dataset last year, and he’s now likely moving to defensive end in a 4-3 scheme that has very few good fits on the edge; there’s a chance for playing time.

Aaron Wallace, TEN

I was a huge fan of the Tennessee Titans selecting Aaron Wallace in 2016, mostly because I thought they’d slide him inside. Instead, they’ve begun using Wallace nearly exactly as they use star pass-rusher Derrick Morgan: a movable chess piece around the formation, who can cause severe damage to an offense when he gets going. Wallace is a versatile player in an evolving defense, and his 1.74 percent quarterback hit rate last year bodes well for his continued development, and he adds the bonus of an 8.70 percent tackle rate to boot. Remember: Brian Orakpo isn’t getting any younger.

Alex Okafor, NO

The New Orleans Saints have transitioned to a 4-3 defense, meaning their edge players are reclassified as defensive ends. That’s music to our ears, as Alex Okafor moved from the desert to the bayou and should be lining up with his hand in the dirt in 2017. He’s sort of broken out before, but fell off for a while before 2016’s 1.30 percent quarterback hit rate. With a wide-open competition for the second defensive end spot, Okafor’s prior pass-rush chops should give him a leg up.

Honorable Mentions: Marcus Smith II (PHI), Dean Lowry (GB), Shaq Lawson (BUF), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (NYG), Shilique Calhoun (OAK), Kevin Dodd (TEN)

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