32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions: AFC South
At this point of the NFL off-season there tend to be a lot more questions than answers. Nowhere is this truer than on the defensive side of the ball. I always say the two most nerve racking times for IDP owners are the week after the regular season ends and Draft weekend. The week after the season ends, or “Black Monday” as it has come to be known, leads to coaching changes, which leads to defensive scheme changes, which can turn a legit IDP squad into a hot mess overnight. Draft weekend can also wreak havoc on IDP rosters when players are unexpectedly drafted to teams who weren’t expected to add talent at the position. Usually this only affects the fringe talent at the linebacker position, guys like Paul Worrilow.
In the “32 Teams, 32 IDP Questions” we’re going to break down each NFL division, team by team, and ask the most pressing IDP questions facing each club. It may deal with overall scheme changes, position battles or draft related strategy. Today’s focus is the AFC South.
Houston Texans
“Is it time to do the unthinkable and shop J.J. Watt due to injuries?”
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There’s two ways to approach this question. First, if I’m a contender there is zero chance I would shop Watt unless I was overwhelmed with an offer or the scoring is unfavorable to IDPs, in which case, why bother having them? There are very few defensive players who can single handedly win you a week with a dominant week wuite like J.J. Watt. Outside of Khalil Mack, there isn’t another defensive end anywhere close to the stratosphere Watt plays every week. Spoiler alert: Mack is probably going to lose his defensive end eligibility too! More on that one later.
The second way to look at this is if you’re rebuilding and trading Watt can jumpstart the process it could absolutely be time to shop him. JJ just turned 28 years old on March 22nd but is also coming off season ending back surgery. To be quite honest, back surgeries terrify me when it comes to offensive tackles and defensive ends. The way they bend on the edges with the amount of power they exert while trying to also add secondary moves is hell on a back. As someone who has ruptured a few discs in his back I know it doesn’t take much to re-injure it. I pulled a muscle brushing my teeth once, true story. My point is, once the glowing reports of Watt returning to 100% start making their way across the feeds, someone will get antsy and kick the tires. If you can get your hands on a young stud wide receiver and another piece, why not consider it?
Indianapolis Colts
“What can we expect from the overhauled Colts defense?”
To say the 2016 Colts defense was a dumpster fire would be insulting to dumpster fires. They didn’t have a single player eclipse 80 total tackles on the year and they were laughably old up the middle when they had promising young players thirsting for playing time. Gone are the two leading tacklers from last year, D’Qwell Jackson and Mike Adams. I believe they’re playing shuffle board or chess somewhere and waiting for Wheel of Fortune to come on. I don’t know what old people do. In are Sean Spence, Edwin Jackson, Antonio Morrison, Jabaal Sheard, John Simon, T.J. Green and Clayton Geathers. Even though the Colts should spend every draft pick they have the next two years on nothing but offensive linemen to keep Andrew Luck upright, I bet they add a dynamic pass rusher in the draft this year. I like what Sheard and Simon bring to a defense as edge setters but neither are elite game changing pass rushers. The inside linebacker position could get a little cluttered with Spence, Jackson and Morrison all fighting for snaps. Spence signed a one year deal worth $3 million this offseason but he’s a replacement level player and I think Morrison and Jackson could both beat him out with a strong summer. There’s a lot to sift through on this defense as we go through OTAs and training camp.
Jacksonville Jaguars
“Does Myles Jack make a sophomore leap?”
No matter how bad we want it to happen, I don’t see how Jack makes a huge leap this year unless an injury happens to Paul Posluszny or Telvin Smith. A lot of people expected the Jaguars to release Posluszny this offseason to make way for Jack. That didn’t happen. Not only did it not happen, new Executive Vice President Tom Coughlin went out of his way to heap praise on the 32 year old linebacker. Truth is, Poz is coming off another incredible season and showed no signs of slowing down and Telvin Smith is a monster in his own right. The best path to playing time for Jack would be to learn the SAM position, something which doesn’t usually breed IDP success and I know we’ve said it the last few years, but this defense looks pretty dang good on paper. Adding Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson solidifies the front line while signing A.J. Bouye and Barry Church fortifies the back end. The overall effectiveness of this unit could lead to fewer tackle opportunities and I just don’t see how Jack jumps into a meaningful IDP asset until 2018.
Tennessee Titans
“What happens to the dynasty value of Johnathan Cyprien after signing with the Titans?”
For a guy who has never had fewer than 100 tackles in a season, Cyprien has a lot of haters in the IDP community but I am certainly not one of them. Cyprien is coming off of the best season of his four year career with 127 total tackles as a member of the Jaguars. Now he’ll play on the back end of Dick LeBeau’s 3-4 defense in Tennessee and his arrow should remain up. Avery Williamson returns as the leading tackler on this unit but Cyprien offers so much more positional flexibility than anyone LeBeau has had since being with the Titans. I expect him to see some time at inside linebacker in the team’s “big dime” package with Kevin Byard and Da’Norris Searcy manning the safety spots. Truth is, there aren’t many playmakers on this unit and Cyprien should easily shine brightest.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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