Dice Roll: How to Handle the Marshawn Lynch Situation

Ken Kelly

At this point, it seems a mere formality that former Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch will soon end his one-year retirement to come back and play for his hometown (for now) Oakland Raiders. While there are still hoops to jump through, including Seattle either releasing him or trading his rights to Oakland, there’s simply too much smoke here to ignore.

The timing of Lynch returning is sparking some debate amongst dynasty owners as most simply can’t pick him up off the waiver wire and could only acquire him by using one of their valuable picks in an upcoming rookie and free agent draft. While this could all fall apart, the exercise of determining player values now is more than worthy to discuss, especially as we’ve reached the calm before the NFL Draft storm. Let’s go ahead and look at what players would be impacted if this move comes to fruition.

Marshawn Lynch, RB OAK (?)

If Lynch is indeed bound for the Raiders and plays again next season, color me skeptical. He’ll turn 31 later this month and could only make it through seven games in 2015, averaging a mere 3.8 yards per carry for the Seahawks. In addition, his skill set is that of a downhill runner who punishes those who stand in his way – the Raiders’ offense uses the shotgun formation as its primary alignment and that just doesn’t suit Lynch too well, though they do have a dominant offensive line that helps make up the difference.

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Add in the fact the Raiders have two very talented young runners in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington and this would look like a nightmare of a committee for fantasy owners. In short, the Raiders aren’t just going to be on pace to hand the ball to Lynch 300 times next season and treat him like the primary option for the offense or he just isn’t going to last long after being out of the league for a year and 31 years old. He could certainly post a Latavius Murray-like 800 yards and double digit scores, but he won’t catch many passes and those numbers are far from a guarantee, even with the Raiders strength up front. He’d get a lot of short yardage and goal line carries but those are very hard to predict, no less count on each week for fantasy purposes.

So, cut to the chase, please.

If Lynch is available on your waiver wire, grab him.  However, I’d be very wary of using even an early third round pick in a rookie and free agent draft on him. I could make a case for using a late third or fourth round pick for someone who believes the time off has really helped him. However, I have a very hard time believing he’s going to be a huge contributor for more than a short spurt in reality or fantasy. Besides, how long could he really play? At best, you’re looking at two years because he’s certainly not following this team to Las Vegas. Personally, I’d rather have a bag of Skittles and a young prospect than take much of a chance on Lynch unless I’m a true contender in my league and simply hate what’s left on the rookie draft board when my pick come up in later rounds. Using a first or second round pick would be music to the ears of everyone else in your league as the most productive thing you may do is push better prospects down the board. Non-contenders need to be very cautious about this situation as you may be buying “Beast Mode” and ending up with “Least Mode.”

Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington, RBs OAK

I believe Lynch joining Oakland would actually be good for the two young running backs they have. I’d much rather see the Raiders grab Lynch than spend a high draft pick on a running back who they see as their long term future. Having Lynch would allow Washington and Richard one more season to prove to Oakland they can be counted on in the long-term. Short-term pain could be long-term gain here and I’d look to acquire either of these two on the cheap if a dynasty owner is sleeping on the job. Of course, I’d certainly wait to do anything until the draft is over as this is simply the worst time of the year to acquire any running back.

Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and the Skill Players of Oakland

In theory, having Lynch could create more open space for the receiving group. However, the combination of Murray, Richard and Washington did a good enough job to keep defenses honest last season. As a result, I don’t see much of a change here if Lynch ends up in Oakland.

Adrian Peterson, RB FA

The Raiders looked like the best possible destination for Peterson but that ship may sail here shortly if it hasn’t already. He’s reportedly meeting with the Saints next week after visiting with Seattle and New England. Being a running back in today’s NFL is unforgiving when you age, that’s for sure.

It looks like Lynch to the Raiders is going to happen and it’s fun to imagine the possibilities. If you’re a riverboat gambler and want to take a chance at hitting it big in your dynasty league, go for it in your rookie draft. I’ll just let someone else bet on black, even if it’s the silver and black.

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ken kelly