Breaking down the big board

Doug Green

It seems like everybody and their mother has a mock draft or a big board this time of year. I’m no different. This is my time of year. I love the draft, analyzing it, studying prospects and trying to figure out where those players might land. This year I’ve decided to put together my own. I’m starting with defensive players only with this version. I’ll release an integrated board before the NFL Draft.

As of today, these rankings are based purely on tape. I’m not a big metrics guy. They have their place and I respect the work George Kritikos, Tom Kislingbury, Ghost, and the rest. I’m just better with words, so combine and pro day results don’t move my rankings all that far. This big board is is more NFL-based than fantasy-based. In IDP especially landing spots matter and it’s tough to rank players for IDP purposes without it.

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So my process is fairly simple. I have 10 traits per position group that I’m looking for. The position groups are Linebacker, Defensive End, Defensive Tackle, Safety and Cornerback. Obviously, those traits will change based upon what each group’s job is. I grade each trait on a 1-10 scale, with 10 being the best, then average those scores across all 10 traits. Best score wins.

What I’ve done here is take all the defensive players I have graded, lumped them all together, and then sorted them by score. The results are below:

DOUG’S BIG BOARD

So, I know you’ve got questions. The first three are pretty standard. Myles Garrett, Malik Hooker, and Reuben Foster are at the top of just about everyone’s positional rankings. It’s the next two that might raise a few eyebrows.

Zach Cunningham might seem high, but he’s an excellent linebacker with sideline to sideline range. He has excellent tape playing in the always tough SEC. I have seen several mocks that have him in the late first or as far down as mid-second.

The man at No. 5 ought to bring about some discussion. So before you try and take away my keyboard, hear me out as to why Jabrill Peppers is this high. First, we need to go back what I said earlier. I grade based on 10 position specific traits. Peppers will be a safety at the NFL level. He said it. Analysts said it. NFL executives said it. So there’s no reason to grade him at linebacker or cornerback.

There has been a ton of discussion on not only Peppers’ best position, but his actual draft value. Some believe he will only be a kick returner, while others think he is best suited on the offensive side of the ball. Even his supporters acknowledge that he still has some learning to do. Here’s what I can tell you from personal experience. If you are asked to take on multiple roles, you can’t really focus on getting better at any one of them. So, much like a couple of years ago when people said that Jameis Winston giving up baseball would help his football career, Peppers isolating as a in-the-box safety will only help his growth.

Carl Lawson is a name that national media seems to like, but I just couldn’t see why on tape. I felt like he lacked athleticism and struggled to diagnose screen plays. I defined him as a mistake hitter in baseball. When he makes contact, it makes an impact, but he needs the offensive line to not do their job for him to get home.

The other name that will undoubtedly raise some eyebrows is Raekwon McMillan. He is athletic, I will give you that. Normally I only grade based on a prospect’s most recent tape. I feel like this gives them the best chance at the highest grade, plus, that’s the version of the player the team is drafting. In McMillan’s case, I had to go back to his 2015 tape to see what all the fuss is about.

I don’t know if there was a scheme change, if he was asked to do something different this season, or what was going on, but the 2015 version of McMillan is almost a different dude from 2016. In 2015 he was a chase-and-tackle player. In 2016, he would engage the offensive line and seem to get stuck there, like his job was to be a space eater, letting Malik Hooker range down and play the middle linebacker role.

As with most big boards, I don’t expect everyone to agree with everything here on this list. Please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on Twitter at @BigBoardIDP to discuss any part of these rankings.

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doug green
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