Strategy in Action: Productive Struggle

Ryan McDowell

A couple of weeks ago when I kicked off the April version of the DLF Mock Drafts, the series of dynasty startup mocks used to formulate our monthly average draft position data, I decided I should once again employ a variety of strategies in team building.

A little bit of background information first. I first came upon this rather simple idea late in the off-season of 2016. In the August mock drafts, I chose six varying startup draft strategies and tried them all while participating in each of the monthly mock drafts. My plan was to detail each approach in a series of article, but eventually I ran out of time before the 2016 NFL season kicked off. The timing all around was poor on my part since most drafts of this type had wrapped anyway.

Now, with more time and startup draft season right around the corner, I chose April’s mocks to try the venture with one more time. In this series of articles, I’ll explain the plan I entered with, players I chose and how the plan might have changed along the way. I’ll also attempt to objectively point out the pros and cons of each tactic as a potential team building blueprint.

Before I dive into the first mock draft, let me explain some ground rules I gave myself. First, I chose a strategy for each league before setup, meaning I was not aware of my draft position beforehand. I also gave myself an out of sorts, acknowledging that I would not necessarily stick to the predetermined plan if a huge value was staring me in the face.

In DLF Mock 1, which happened to be the DLF Staff Mock, I chose to use the Productive Struggle strategy. I first introduced this plan of attack in 2014 and a follow-up article was part of my first attempt at this series last fall.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

The Strategy

As part of the popular startup draft plan I labeled Productive Struggle, a dynasty owner focuses on filling their team with youth, especially at the wide receiver position. While it is not possible in a mock draft, trading back multiple times in order to acquire chunks of draft picks, along with future draft capital, would also be key parts of the plan. The strategy would culminate in a losing first season, resulting in a high draft pick and another coveted young asset being added to the roster.

The Draft

I drew the fifth pick in this mock draft, but I feel you could attempt this strategy from any draft spot. In an actual league, I would try to move down to a later first round pick, or even move out of the top 12 picks altogether.

Here’s how my mock draft went:

1.05 Amari Cooper, WR OAK

2.08 Corey Davis, WR ROOKIE

3.05 Davante Adams, WR GB

4.08 Mike Williams, WR ROOKIE

5.05 Hunter Henry, TE LAC

6.08 CJ Prosise, RB SEA

7.05 Jameis Winston, QB TB

8.08 Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL

9.05 Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

10.08 David Njoku, TE ROOKIE

11.05 Paul Perkins, RB NYG

12.08 Zay Jones, WR ROOKIE

13.05 Kareem Hunt, RB ROOKIE

14.08 Taywan Taylor, WR ROOKIE

15.05 Jamaal Williams, RB ROOKIE

16.08 Leonte Carroo, WR MIA

17.05 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR PHI

18.08 Robert Davis, WR ROOKIE

19.05 Mitch Trubisky, QB ROOKIE

20.08 Geronimo Allison, WR GB

Cooper is my third ranked player in dynasty leagues, so that felt like an easy pick regardless of my strategy, but the fact that he’s played second fiddle to Michael Crabtree the past two seasons, while at the same time giving us glimpse of some massive upside makes him the perfect cornerstone piece for a Productive Struggle team.winston

I followed that up by grabbing four more pass catchers, all of whom are still under 25 years old. Collecting young talent is the key component of this plan. While both rookies were probably reaches, an owner using this game plan would not be worried about that if they believe in the talent. Again though, those would have been ideal spots to trade down, if possible.

Targeting young, yet somewhat proven options at the quarterback and tight end spots is a secondary goal of this strategy and with both positions greatly devalued in recent years, this could be simple. In this example, I used fifth and seventh round picks, respectively, to acquire Henry and Winston. In hindsight, using a ninth-round pick on Dak Prescott and using my tenth-round pick on Njoku as my first tight end would’ve allowed me to add players like Tevin Coleman and Willie Snead in the fifth and seventh rounds, greatly improving my starting lineup in year one.

I made second-year backs Prosise and Dixon my first two runners, and to be honest, I don’t feel confident with either pick. Dixon is facing a four-game suspension and Prosise dealt with multiple injuries during his first year and now has added competition from former Packer Eddie Lacy. The ninth-round pick of Treadwell was one of the easiest of the entire draft. High profile players like Treadwell who have lost value are exactly the type of players Productive Struggle teams should be gambling on. Just one year ago, Treadwell was valued as highly as the second round of startup drafts, so the seven round drop makes him a value for this plan.

From there, I continued to focus on adding youth with upside to this team. Seven of my final eleven selections were rookies. In fact, talented disappointment Green-Beckham was the only player with more than one year of NFL experience I chose in this range of the draft.

The Lineup

In these mock drafts, the supposed starting lineups consist of one each from the four key fantasy positions; quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, along with four flex spots, which could be a RB, WR or TE.

QB- Winston

RB- Dixon

WR- Cooper

TE- Henry

FLEX- Adams

FLEX- Perkins

FLEX- Davis

FLEX- Williams

This starting lineup looks rough, as planned. Remember, as part of the Productive Struggle, you are actually hoping to take your lumps with losses in the first season, while building a team full of future upside and rookie draft capital. Based on what we know now, this team would certainly do its part towards earning a high 2018 rookie draft pick.

The Pros

The Productive Struggle, or punting year one as some have called it, became a very popular strategy over the past couple of years and it’s easy to see why. The challenge is to build a dominant dynasty team and this is viewed as a path to that through youth and picks which could be a force for years to come. Personally, I have used this strategy and it has worked well in most of my leagues.

One nice bonus that comes from this plan is that even if your team is not ready to compete by the second season, the majority of your players should still be on the upswing when it comes to dynasty value, opening the door for more trades. While this team is a longshot to make the playoffs in 2017, there is potential to carry four or more top 20 wideouts into the 2018 season and if even a portion of those nine rookies prove to be “hits” this team could be a strong contender for years.

The Cons

The downside of this strategy is fairly clear. Using this plan essentially eliminates any chance of winning or contending in the first season. While I have had Productive Struggle teams contend immediately, it is a rare occasion. Instead, things usually go according to plan, including losses piling up and the draft spot landing somewhere near the top of each round. I have seen and heard many dynasty players say they are simply not willing to lose intentionally for the first season. While I can see the benefits, I totally understand the competitive reasons for this mindset.

If you are open to the idea of struggling with a productive endpoint in mind, you then must acknowledge the risk. I mentioned earlier that this strategy has often worked very well for me, but not always. The times when it has failed has boiled down drafting the wrong players. Despite all of the resources, both through film and analytics, no dynasty player can hit on all of their picks and relying on so many unproven players could easily go the wrong way.

With the team drafted in this mock, 16 of the 20 players are either rookies or second-year players. None of those players, with the possible exception of Henry, have proven they can be reliable dynasty assets.

The Next Steps

Ideally, when employing the Productive Struggle, not only would you exit the startup draft with a team similar to this one, but you’d also have accumulated additional future rookie draft picks. With a plan to fail through year one, there is little pressure to make moves that some win now teams might feel. Instead, these teams should be actively working the waiver wire, as should all dynasty players, with a sense of aggressiveness when it comes to young, potential impact players. Adding even one or two more possible starting caliber players can expedite the entire process and give the team a better chance to compete in year two.

The next step would be to use your likely high draft picks, adding more young, valuable pieces to your team’s core. Finally, the task will be to reevaluate your team’s status. If you feel you’re ready to compete, then a move for a veteran or two is likely necessary. Going back to the team in the mock, the most apparent need would be at the running back position. Fortunately, acquiring veteran, short-term producers can be fairly easy. This is another reason this strategy is appealing to many dynasty players. If things go well and the risk pays off, your Productive Struggle team should be able to compete as quickly as the second season of the league.

[/am4show]

ryan mcdowell