Dynasty Capsule: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
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Quarterback
Jameis Winston came into the NFL as one of the more ballyhooed quarterback prospects in recent memory and he has lived up to expectations. Winston’s first two seasons rank one and two in the Buccaneers record book for passing yards, as he is the only Buccaneer quarterback to eclipse 4,000 passing yards and he did it in each of his first two seasons. With 33 interceptions thus far, Winston has shown that he will take unnecessary risks at times, but his successes with 57 total touchdowns help offset that. Entering year three, Winston is expected to get a boost in weapons after having Mike Evans and not much else. What the Buccaneers do at the wide receiver position this off-season will be big for Winston’s future.
Mike Glennon started 18 games in his first two seasons, splitting time with Josh Freeman and Josh McCown during that time. Glennon had his ups and downs as a starter, but he did have a TD-INT ratio of 29-15. When the Buccaneers spent the #1 overall pick on Jameis Winston and named him the day one starter, it left Glennon destined for the bench for the remainder of his rookie contract. In December, reports came out that Glennon could get as much as $13-15 million per year in free agency. Money like that would mean he would be a team’s starter. If Glennon gets a starting job, that instantly gives him some nice value in Superflex league and it would create a nice sell window for those who don’t believe in Glennon’s talent but have kept him stashed for the last couple of seasons for this exact reason.
With Glennon expected to leave town, Ryan Griffin would step into the backup role momentarily, but I would expect the Buccaneers to pick up a more proven backup in free agency or invest a late round pick on a developmental quarterback in the draft.
Running Back
Doug Martin has had a topsy turvy career in the NFL thus far. In 2012 and 2015, Martin ran for over 1400 rushing yards each year and 19 total touchdowns between the two. In his other three seasons, Martin has failed to eclipse 500 rushing yards, averaging only 8.33 games played per season during that time period. Martin’s 2015 season earned him a five year, $35.75 million contract. His poor play made it look like this would be a contract that would come back to bite the Buccaneers, but with Martin being suspended for a positive adderall test at the end of the season, that voided all of the guaranteed money in his contract and the Buccaneers can and will likely cut him at the beginning of the new league year. For Martin’s dynasty value, he has likely seen his last opportunity to be the feature back in an offense, but he will get an opportunity to redeem himself with a new team likely in a running back by committee.
With Martin likely out of town, Charles Sims would step into the RB1 role for the Buccaneers, at least momentarily. However, Sims has had his own durability issues missing 17 games in his first three NFL seasons. When healthy, Sims produced well in 2015 with 51 receptions for 561 receiving yards along with 529 yards on the ground as Martin’s backup. There are two ways that Sims dynasty value could play out in the next couple of months. First, his value could shoot up when Martin is released and he would become a nice sell high option, or potential Sims buyers won’t buy the starter potential and assume the Buccaneers will bring in another back. In that scenario, I would be a Sims buyer, because even if the Buccaneers bring in another back, Sims showed in 2015 he can still be fantasy relevant even if someone is ahead of him on the depth chart.
Jacquizz Rodgers had a solid season for the Buccaneers after being signed in September. He played in ten games and ran for 560 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers doesn’t have any dynasty value for now, but the Buccaneers could re-sign him on a cheap veteran contract to try and help bring stability to a position that lacked that in 2016.
Peyton Barber was one of my favorite rookie stashes at the beginning of last season, and he had solid performances when he got the opportunity as he ran for 223 yards in his rookie season with a 4.1 yards per carry. Barber would likely need similar injury issues in 2017 to see the field again, and has gone from a stash to a cut for me this off-season.
Wide Receiver
There is not much to say about Mike Evans that hasn’t already been said. Evans is one of the league’s best wide receivers and he has had one of the best three-year stretches to start a career in NFL history. Some soured on Evans after he had a 50% catch percentage and only three touchdowns in his second NFL season, but he bounced back big time, increasing his catch percentage to 55.5% and reaching the end zone 12 times, matching his total from his rookie season. Evans had the best season of his career with 96 catches for 1321 receiving yards. He led the NFL with market share of targets as he was targeted on more than 30% of the Buccaneers passes (H/T @RyanMc23). If the Buccaneers invest at the wide receiver position like expected, Evans target share will likely not be as astronomically high, but he will still be a top five wide receiver option and worth the top two pick in dynasty startups at still only 23 years old (24 in August).
After eclipsing 1000 receiving yards in six of seven seasons between 2008-2014, Jackson has appeared to hit the age wall in the last two. He will be a free agent this off-season and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him retire after only catching 48 passes for 716 receiving yards in the last two seasons. Jackson could try and play one more season for a Super Bowl contender, but a return to Tampa in 2017 is unlikely.
The Buccaneers lacked depth at the wide receiver position in 2016 and evidence of that comes in the form of Adam Humphries seeing 83 targets in 15 games. Humphries had some usable value in deeper leagues in 2016 as a fourth or fifth flex. Humphries is better suited as a #3 wide receiver in an offense and that is likely what he will be in 2017. Humphries is worth an end of bench spot, but his ceiling is likely capped at what we saw in 2016 with 55 catches for 622 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Buccaneers brought in Huff at the end of the season after he was cut by the Eagles following an arrest for DUI. He has the most upside of anyone else on the depth chart. Huff is worth a stash in deep leagues, but that stash value will likely dissipate when the Buccaneers add a wide receiver in free agency or the draft.
Tight End
Cameron Brate had a breakout year three campaign in 2016. After competing with Austin Seferian-Jenkins all off-season for the TE1 spot in Tampa, Seferian-Jenkins was released after a DUI arrest. With Brate being the only receiving tight end on the team, this opened the door for Brate to be one of Winston’s favorite weapons. Brate was third on the team in targets and caught 57 passes for 660 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Brate finished the season as the TE6 and despite the success of the 25 year old, he is still being drafted at 154 overall in January DLF mocks. With Brate’s current price, the risk is baked in that he could be phased out some with other additions on offense. If those additions don’t happen, Brate could end up being one of the best values of the off-season.
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