FanDuel Bargains: Week 17
Welcome back to the FanDuel value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. As always, we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors.
Value players, by nature, are meant to help lineup construction by freeing up cap space for better plays on the week. Ideally, as GPP plays, they also big have upside (and downside) and often rely on volume or unique opportunity due to circumstance. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and projections. Pro-football-reference.com is a constant source of raw stats when judging matchups. I often refer to other metrics often from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, QB ATL ($7400)
Line: -3.5 ATL
O/U: 45
OPP: CAR
Matt Ryan is in the only game with real, stand alone, playoff implications. If Atlanta wins they will secure a place in the post season. He is $2000 less than Cam Newton, and has Julio Jones as well as a matchup against the 15th ranked defense against the quarterback position according to aFPA.
Carolina has given up six passing touchdowns in the last three games as well as 107 yards to Mike Evans last week (his first 100-yard game this season), 84 yards and a touchdown to Randall Cobb two weeks ago (his highest yardage total since week one) and 105 yards and touchdown to Adam Thielen three weeks ago.
Priced as the QB16 on the week, he is projected to finish in the top ten by 4for4.com. The game is the second-highest projected game total on the week. Ryan has struggled in the last few weeks and hasn’t broken 300 yards since week 12, but he was able to do it against Carolina in week nine as well as two touchdowns. The inconsistency makes him difficult to rely on but in a week where most games will be hard to predict, at least we know the Falcons will be motivated to win.
Other Options: Jacoby Brissett ($6600), Tyrod Taylor ($7300), Kirk Cousins ($7600)
Running Back
Derrick Henry, RB TEN ($5800)
Line: -3
O/U: 42 TEN
OPP: JAX
Yeah, I didn’t have to work very hard to come up with Derrick Henry’s name. Like everybody else, I’ve been waiting for him to take on the lead role in Tennessee since he was drafted. If it has to be week 17 in 2017, so be it.
He should be very highly owned this week but he’s also 6’3” tall and weighs 247lbs with an athletic profile that can make your knees give way if you stare at it too long. He’s priced as the RB32 this week and he is up against a Jacksonville defense which, despite improvement, still ranks as the 21st matchup according to aFPA.
Sometimes the right decisions are hard and messy, and you don’t always get to play good players you are excited about in DFS. Still, there’s no reason to feel guilty when they aren’t hard and messy and you do get to play a good player.
Other Options: LeSean McCoy ($8200), Alex Collins ($6800), Jamaal Williams ($6700)
Wide Receiver
Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN ($6800)
Line: -3.5
O/U: 38 DEN
OPP: KC
Demaryius Thomas is priced as the WR27 on the week and is up against the 27th ranked matchups in aFPA, so it’s obviously meant to be. Honestly, wide receiver as a position has been giving me some trouble this week. The model I use to find my initial value rankings lit up like a Christmas tree when I fed it this week’s data with almost everybody earning a positive value score. Which isn’t normal. However after breaking down the matchups I think there are decent values to stand out.
The fact Emmanuel Sanders has been declared out for week 17 now means that Thomas will have all the volume he can handle and volume, no matter which of the terrible options available at quarterback trots out to supply it. This makes him a decent play at his price rank.
Even if Sanders wasn’t out, Thomas has dominated the target share in the last five weeks with 25.2% of the targets and is averaging 8.8 per game and 36.8% of all red zone targets since week ten. The game has a pathetic excuse for a projected total, but at least Denver is projected to go over 20 as a team.
Other Options: T.Y. Hilton ($6700), Mohamed Sanu ($5600), Randall Cobb ($5500)
Tight End
Charles Clay, TE, BUF ($5600)
Line: -2.5
O/U: 42.5 BUF
OPP: MIA
If you are not planning to pay up this week there is a very small, yet attractive, list of players at the tight end position and the line starts behind Charles Clay. Clay likes us, he must do. There is no other answer to how he could plan his season for us so perfectly.
He was the best value tight end of them all to start the season and just as fantasy sites were starting to catch on he got injured, went away, his price fell, and then came back to the tune of a 29% target market share over the last five weeks. He’s had 28.6% of the team’s red zone targets since week ten as well.
Clay and LeSean McCoy are the Buffalo offense at this point, and with that simplicity comes cheap, easy volume against the best defensive matchup for the tight end position in 2017. Miami sticks, especially against tight ends. They rank dead last in aFPA having allowed 944 receiving yards, nine touchdowns and 87 receptions to the position.
Other options: Jack Doyle ($5400), Eric Ebron ($5600), Antonio Gates ($5700)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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