2018 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Lamar Jackson

Joseph Nammour Posted On December 30, 2017

Lamar Jackson is an electrifying talent at the quarterback position. For someone so naturally talented, the call from some members of big media for him to switch positions is truly astonishing.

We’ll break down what makes him so exciting and why his best prospects at the pro level are at his natural position.

AS A RECRUIT

Jackson attended Boynton Beach High School in Boynton Beach, Florida and committed to Louisville on the 30th August, 2014. Jackson wasn’t a very highly regarded prospect out of high school. According to 247 Sports, he was a three-star recruit and ranked as the 12th-best dual-threat quarterback and the 409th overall prospect in the nation.

He received 17 offers, including many from top Division I schools. Louisville, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Florida, Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, and South Carolina were some of the programs to extend him an offer.

NCAA CAREER

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*Statistics from Sports Reference.

Jackson made significant improvements each season. His mediocre freshman campaign saw him complete just under 55 percent of his passes, throw 12 touchdowns, and toss eight interceptions. It was a poor showing as a passer, but he was able to rush for 960 yards and 11 touchdowns, setting the stage for his record-setting Heisman season.

Jackson’s sophomore year put him on the national radar as a potential first-round passer. Improving both his passing and rushing statistics across the board, Jackson shattered records and became appointment television every Saturday. His potential was tangible, but his accuracy was still a concern.

However, after his junior season, he’s put some of those fears to rest. AY/A, or adjusted yards per attempt, is one of my favorite efficiency stats and illustrates the adjustments Jackson has made from year to year. The statistic, which adjusts for interceptions, is a better indicator of efficiency than standard Y/A (yards per attempt).

The one other thing to note with Jackson is that his receivers committed a lot of drops. Lamar’s completion percentage is often listed as a negative for him, and while it’s a valid concern, a better supporting cast would have significantly improved those numbers for him.

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson – 8.5%
Baker Mayfield – 8.0%
Josh Rosen – 7.5%
Mason Rudolph – 6.6%
Josh Allen – 4.8%
Sam Darnold – 4.3%#SupportingCast

— J.R. (@JReidDraftScout) December 22, 2017

ATHLETIC PROFILE

Jackson is one of the most athletic quarterbacks to enter the draft this decade, and his speed and acceleration will be among the NFL’s elite the second he gets drafted. During Louisville’s spring athletic testing day, Jackson blazed a 4.34 second 40-yard dash. This is an unofficial time recorded during an informal session, but that would be faster than any quarterback who has run at the Combine in NFL history.

One of the biggest knocks on Jackson, though, is his frame. Jackson is listed at 6’3” and between 205 and 212 pounds, and even the generous end of that range is extremely thin for the position. For a player so valuable because of his ability to run, he will need to add weight to withstand 16-game seasons at the next level.

DRAFT PROJECTION

Varying mock drafts peg him as high as first overall and as low as the third round. He’s a polarizing prospect, but one who should be drafted in the first two rounds. Jackson will likely be selected between picks 15 and 45, but he’s not a natural fit for every team; limiting the pool of franchises that will look to pull the trigger on him.

The New York Jets are my favorite potential landing spot for him. Josh McCown has been an admirable stopgap and helped the Jets put together a far better season than anyone anticipated prior to the beginning of the season, but he’s not their long-term solution. John Morton’s air raid scheme is similar to the offense that Jackson ran at Louisville, and concepts he’s installed for the Jets will maximize Lamar’s potential.

In 1QB leagues, Jackson isn’t really an option for me until the middle of the second round or so. The position is devalued in that format, and this is a decent quarterback class overall. In superflex or 2QB leagues, I’d consider him as early as 1.03, but would be more comfortable slotting him into the 1.05-1.08 range.

MY THOUGHTS

Jackson is an incredible runner with the ball in his hands. He’s a phenomenal athlete with amazing acceleration who understands how to set up his potential tacklers downfield so he can evade them at the second level. Despite his skill as a rusher, Jackson is a pocket passer first and foremost. The majority of his runs are either designed quarterback runs or run-pass options (RPOs).

UNC has the perfect blitz called.

Lamar Jackson breaks it, resets and delivers a perfectly placed ball to allow for YAC and a TD. #NorrisNotes pic.twitter.com/mobq9wZPho

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 27, 2017

Typically comfortable in the pocket; he rarely panics, keeping his eyes up and facing blitzers as the pocket collapses on him. Jackson can tend to suffer from lapses in accuracy, which often stem from his mechanics. He tends to stand tall with his feet planted until he’s moved off his spot, setting his base with his feet close together.

His arm talent isn’t as outstanding as Josh Allen’s, but Jackson is a far more complete player. Lamar has good velocity, touch, and arm strength, but he needs to hone these traits and consistently make all the throws he’s capable of. He has the potential to develop into a great deep-ball passer and can loft the ball with great touch downfield, but has the tendency to miss on some intermediate routes more than he should.

CONCLUSION

Jackson is an incredibly fun player to watch. He can be maddeningly inconsistent, but his upside is astronomical. I have Jackson listed as my QB1 in this class from a fantasy perspective.

Falling in love with upside at quarterback has burned me before, but Jackson’s floor seems safe. While I don’t think he will be the best real-life NFL starter in this class (that’s Josh Rosen for me), his running ability is a true game-breaker and provides him with a floor that most other quarterbacks simply can’t provide. However, he would need to land with a team that will be willing to let him run and do what he does best.

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