2018 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Anthony Miller Dynasty Value

By Kyle Pollock

Posted on December 30, 2017

On December 30th, Anthony Miller and the Memphis Tigers will take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Autozone Liberty Bowl. It will be the wideout’s final game in what has been an extremely productive four year career.

As a Recruit

Miller is everyone’s favorite type of recruit: the zero-star prospect! He was a zero-star in the 247 composite, but 247 themselves ranked him as the 234th-best wide receiver and the 1746th-best player in the class of 2013. Obviously it’s very rare for these recruits to pan out, which is what makes Miller such a great story.

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He was also a standout track athlete in high school. Miller participated in two hurdle events and two jumping events, and these are his results:

14.44 110m high hurdle (77th percentile for all wide receivers)
39.16 300m hurdle (72%)
22’11” long jump (86%)
44’09” triple jump (71%)

Based on these track times, I think that he should test pretty well at the Combine in explosive drills such as the broad jump and the vertical jump.

Production

As I stated before, Miller has been one of the most productive receivers in the country over the course of the last few years. He’s put up at least 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, to go along with Dominator Ratings of .39 and .41. Both of those are elite numbers, and are pretty encouraging for his NFL future.

He’s not really a great deep threat, averaging a little over 15 yards per reception over the course of the past two seasons, but I think he’ll be tremendous in the short to intermediate areas of the field.

However, there is some concern about Miller’s production because of his age. He’s already 23 years old and will be 24 for most of his rookie season. A player his age should be doing just what he’s been doing these past few seasons, which is dominating his competition. Miller also didn’t break out till he was a 21 year old, and when you’re playing in the American conference I would expect for you to break out much sooner than that. It makes his level of production a little less impressive, but still well above the average of what I would expect for a prospect.

Film

Miller is a really fun player to watch. Here were my thoughts on him after his junior season:

“He possesses excellent speed and very strong hands. He’s also a solid route runner, and all of these traits put together allow him to be a threat to score at any time. Even though he’s only 5’11”, 195 pounds, Miller plays with a physicality that lets him play like a much bigger player. His leaping ability in jump ball situations also contributes to this play style.

I expect Miller to test very well at the combine, and coupling his athleticism with his production, I would compare him to Emmanuel Sanders. My only concern about Miller right now is that he’s likely to be on the older side since he is a redshirt senior. However, if he puts up phenomenal production again and lives up to my expectations for how he’ll test, I have no reason to see why he can’t fulfill my ranking of wide receiver eight for next year’s draft.”

All of the positive traits he displayed during his junior campaign continued to flash this year during his senior season. He profiles as a slot receiver to me, but has the athleticism to play on the outside at the next level. Miller’s leaping ability continues to flash on film, which makes him a dangerous red zone threat. This season he was sixth in the country this year with 85 red zone targets and third with nine red zone touchdowns.

Draft Projection

Miller has been picking up some buzz on #DraftTwitter this year, and it’s understandable why. However, for an older receiver I have a hard time envisioning him going before the third round. The highest I could see him going is the middle of the second round as the sixth wide receiver off the board behind Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Deon Cain, James Washington, and Christian Kirk.

Because of that and his age, I would have a hard time taking him before the middle of the second round in rookie drafts. If he ends up slipping to the fourth or fifth round I may even be inclined to wait a little bit longer. I think the Eagles and Packers would be great landing spots for Miller, as he can step in immediately and fill a role as their slot receiver, and both teams have two quarterbacks who could also get him the ball in the middle of the field.

Final Thoughts

Miller is currently my WR8 for this year’s class and WR16 overall. If players like Michael Gallup and Simmie Cobbs test well, I may end up moving them up ahead of Miller, as Gallup has as good production at a younger age and Cobbs has flashed Mike Evans-like talent at some points this season.

Miller should be able to be a contributor for whatever team he ends up on, but even with his elite production if he tests poorly and goes to a bad situation I won’t be touching him in rookie drafts. I don’t usually like older prospects, but I do think Miller has a chance to be an exception to this rule and be a solid fantasy contributor.

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