A Letter To The Ghost of Christmas Past

TheFFGhost

Editor’s note: Happy Holidays, everyone! Please enjoy something a little different from our very own dynasty Ghost.

Dear younger, less-experienced and generally more naive dynasty me from six years ago,

Surprise! Roughly five and a half years ago you embarked on a journey into the world of fantasy football writing. You’ve met a ton of great people and smart people as well – lots of those! You’ve come up with some great ideas and articles and the fantasy community has supported you, especially including your soon to be home, Dynasty League Football. I don’t want to spoil too many surprises, but you’ve tackled the NFL Draft in a big way and have set your mind towards improving how people can be successful at auction drafts and trading valuation.

For all the fun and interesting stuff that you’ve been able to do, I’m here to let you know, you’ve made mistakes as well. It’s those mistakes I want to share with you so an alternate version of myself can be the best possible dynasty player I can be. Buckle up, the ride ahead is bumpy, and you might not like some of the things I tell you:

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1.) Your first article will be about the true valuation of rookie picks. While you aren’t wrong in that article, you aren’t right either. Confused? Good! Let me put it this way, you are right for when you wrote it, you’re dead wrong now from my standpoint. Year to year the value of rookie picks fluctuates more than the daily price of Bitcoin. (Oh yeah, side note, look into that too, trust me!)

There isn’t any good way value rookie picks from year to year. Some classes don’t produce much in the way of sustained value, while others ultimately change the landscape of the league. Don’t lock yourself into a static valuation view, like all things in dynasty, values change week to week.

2.) The value of running backs will dip, but the league adapts. You will be one of the first to highlight the decline of the NFL running back position and wide receiver values in the dynasty format skyrocket. This is exacerbated by several years of below average running back classes, as I mentioned in the first point. However, the running back position rebounds with several strong draft classes leading up to the season where I am writing this piece from.

3.) Tight ends redefine the position shortly after you start writing and you even write a popular article on the subject. However, injuries appear to affect the value of this position more than most as elite options suffer frequent injuries, stunting their production. Is it wise to invest in elite tight ends? Yes, but temper expectations and absolutely do not place all your faith in them to carry your team consistently. View the position more as a nice to have over the long run of your dynasty team.

4.) This is piece of advice is more owner specific than league specific: never stop churning the bottom part of your roster. Sure, it’s a common adage among dynasty players but all too often it’s a tactic that falls on deaf ears. For long spans of my dynasty career I was content with the roster I had and felt my studs could get or keep me in contention. I missed out on players who could have been picked up off of waivers for next to nothing.

In the season which I am writing this to you, I focused heavily on bottom roster churn. I added names who got hot and dropped players who fizzled. Sure, several of those players were one-week wonders but others played a role in what has become my most successful dynasty season to date. That oversight is my oversight, it shouldn’t be yours.

5.) Trust your instincts and what you see in players. I’m not saying to never cut your losses – some players just don’t have what it takes to succeed at the next level, but don’t cut a player after a bad game, or even a bad season. Opportunities abound in this game. You will be burned by players coming out of the gate cold, but what will make matters worse is when you cut them after two or three weeks of bad games or riding the pine only to see them become the next big thing. If you drafted a player or added him through waivers, then remind yourself why you made that move before you cut him.

6.) On the flip side however, don’t let a player become an anchor around your neck. It is okay to be wrong. It happens. You will become enamored with players. Everyone does it. You think you see something that other people don’t, and sometimes you do. However, there will be times you see things that others have purposely chosen to ignore as well.

There are an infinite number of ways to win at fantasy football, all of them do not involve any specific player. If a player isn’t producing then ask yourself, “are the future points this player may get worth the points I’m losing now?” If the answer is yes, then absolutely keep him. If the answer is no, or you even have to think about it longer than a few seconds, then move on.

7.) For every time you question the assumptions made by others, question your own assumptions at least twice. This community, more than most, loathes people unwilling to accept new information. This is a big reason you love this community though. The inability to accept new information is a weakness here, as it should be. Those willing to die on Assumption Hill have unmarked tombstones. The community remembers and rewards those who are constantly defining, refining and redefining what it is we think we know. So far, you’ve been lucky enough to keep things fresh, never get complacent and set in your ways. If you do then you’ll lose games, leagues and respect, all of which are impossible to reverse down the road.

The steps you’re just about to take have made me into the dynasty player and writer that I am today, and for that I am eternally grateful to you, my former self. While I wish I had this letter when I was first starting out, I hope it serves as a path that others will follow, even now.

While A Christmas Carol was defined by Scrooge making mistakes that he was too proud to accept, I like to think I am the opposite. I’ve made mistakes but those mistakes, just as much as my successes, have defined who I am in this community. I accept my failures, but I hope that those failures serve not only as lessons for me, but for others as well. Scrooge had to have three ghosts show him the error of his ways, all of you, my readers, only have one ghost, and he is showing you his own errors.

Happy Holidays everyone!

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