FanDuel Bargains: Week 16

Peter Howard

Welcome back to the FanDuel Value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. As always, we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors.

Value players, by nature, are meant to help lineup construction by freeing up cap space for better plays on the week. Ideally, as GPP plays, they also big have upside (and downside) and often rely on volume or unique opportunity due to circumstance. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.

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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and projections. Pro-football-reference.com is a constant source of raw stats when judging matchups. I often refer to other metrics often from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, QB DET ($8000) vs CIN

If I’m going to look for value at the quarterback position this week my first choice is Matthew Stafford. He is the sixth-highest priced quarterback on the main slate and is projected to finish as the QB5. That’s not a big difference, but it’s enough.

The Bengals rank 25th in aFPA against quarterbacks and while Detroit still has something to play for, the Bengals have looked ready for the off-season in the last few weeks. I’m not planning on them putting up much of a fight this week either, which makes it hard to predict a shootout. However Detroit still has a lackluster running game and its best players at running back are better pass catchers. What’s more, the projected game totals seem to have this contest being closer than it might otherwise seem with a -4 point line and both teams projected to score over 20 points.

Other options: Cam Newton ($8300), Blake Bortles ($7600), Drew Stanton ($6000)

Running Back

Kapri Bibbs, RB WAS ($5000) vs DEN

Value at running back is ugly in week 16 – as if listing Kapri Bibbs didn’t say that already. Ordinarily in this situation I’ve listed the best value higher-priced player. But this week I’ve decided to list the four cheapest running backs I’d be okay with starting that still offer value at their price rank.

Priced as the RB44 on the main slate, Bibbs’ only real competition for work is Samaje Perine, who was hurt in Thursday’s practice and was unable to come back on Friday. Perine is listed as questionable and the team has some hope he will play. However, even if he plays, it’s likely Bibbs will get more extended work in relief. There is a strong “motivation” narrative out there about how Bibbs was traded from the Broncos to Washington this season. While I’m not going to rely on narratives, he will need all the help he can get because his athletic metrics on are worrying low (indicated by his 14th percentile SPARQ-x score).

In the end he is a home favorite running back who could see an extended workload at a low price up against the 25th ranked defense in aFPA giving up 20 points a game in the last six weeks. Ideally he’d need to hit around 12+ points to pay off his price tag in a GPP. But his price is also low enough it frees up a wealth of options elsewhere.

Other options: Dion Lewis ($6700), Theo Riddick ($6100), Peyton Barber ($5400)

Wide Receiver

Robert Woods, WR LAR ($6600) vs TEN

Robert Woods came back last week and immediately took back the lead role in target share with seven targets. What’s more, he could be under the radar as not everyone will have noticed that he had two targets in the red zone last week and could be in for heavy use in the most valuable area of the field.

Tennessee has been a poor defense and ranks 18th in aFPA against wide receivers. But remember that it is the worst matchups in terms of explosive passing defense according to sharpfootballstats.com. Still, the game has a top three projected total this week and the Titans have been fairly good at stuffing the run in the same time period. While pass funnel rankings have not proven predictive, the recent performance of the defense does suggest that the Rams will find it easier to pass then run.

Woods, priced as the WR21 on the main slate, is at a discount because of his recent absence but before he left he was consistently producing big games.

Other options: Chris Godwin ($4500), Keelan Cole ($5300), Dede Westbrook ($5900)

Tight End

Antonio Gates, TE LAC ($4500) vs NYJ

Antonio Gates is the last man standing at the tight end position in LA. The loss of Hunter Henry leaves around five targets a game up for grabs. While Gates likely won’t take all of them, those that he does get should be in the red zone. Since week ten, Gates has had five targets inside the 10-yard line (35% of the targets in total) and Henry had four (30%) in the same period. At bare minimum Gate is a serious touchdown threat this week.

He is priced as the TE91 on the Main slate and up against the 25th ranked defense in aFPA. Ultimately I’m not sure I care about the normal matchups metrics for this play though. The fact is Gates is just a hall of fame candidate body who is still big, talented and able to catch touchdowns with volume. Also I like the idea of playing a beloved veteran on the Christmas slate in what could well be his last season.

Other options: Cameron Brate ($5100), Eric Ebron ($5200)

peter howard
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