2018 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Josh Allen

Travis May

Wyoming has not been known for providing the world with much more than a few National Parks. Josh Allen is looking to change that this spring as he will most assuredly be (and already is) a polarizing NFL quarterback prospect to watch.

NCAA Career

As far as possible future NFL Draft round one quarterback selections go, Josh Allen’s route to glory wasn’t exactly typical.

Allen began his journey playing junior-college football for Reedley Community College. Even by JUCO standards his production could be described as “adequate” or “just enough” to warrant looks from low-level Division-I schools. He did just enough to land in Wyoming in 2015. Sadly, Josh missed most of his first season due to injury.

But then it happened.

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Josh Allen completely turned around a putrid Wyoming football team in 2016 that had finished 2-10 the previous season. Wyoming won the Mountain West conference and made it to a bowl game, finishing 8-6. Yet again though, Allen’s statistics were far from perfect. His 56% accuracy is by any college standard fairly awful. He also threw 15 interceptions. However, most of his shortcomings were blamed on his poor supporting cast. That had to be why the 6’5” quarterback with “all of the right traits” struggled.

In 2017 it was time for Josh Allen to take next steps and proved he belonged in the NFL Draft discussion. Instead Allen did nothing spectacular, eclipsing 174 passing yards in just four of ten regular season games before injuring his shoulder.

As A Recruit

According to 247Sports composite rankings, Allen was barely even a three-star recruit in the 2015 class (coming out of his JUCO year at Reedley). Allen had just one official offer, from Wyoming, of course. Going to play for a perennially loser program was his only option if he wanted to play on some of college football’s biggest stages. Needless to say Allen’s hopes for an NFL future looked bleak.

Athletic Profile

This is what many of Josh Allen fans point to and get all worked up about when making bold claims of his future NFL stardom. Allen certainly looks like a professional quarterback at 6’5”, 240 pounds. He boasts top notch arm strength that allows him to flick the ball 50 yards downfield on the run.

Plus Josh has above average speed for a quarterback, making him a threat both through the air and on the ground on any given play. And even if defenses can get to him in the backfield Allen is most definitely strong enough to shed first contact and keep the play alive. It’s not like he’s Cam Newton or anything, but Allen definitely possesses an athletic profile that can keep defensive coordinators guessing.

We’ll find out more about how athletic Josh Allen truly is at the NFL Combine, but for now this looks like a feather in his recruiting cap.

Draft Projection

It seems no one really knows where Josh Allen will be drafted, but early noise seems to point towards his name being called rather early in the NFL Draft. In a class that could provide us with six quarterbacks taken inside the third round (Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Mason Rudolph) Allen’s name is still consistently talked about in the upper tier of quarterbacks.

The Mel Kipers and Todd McShays of the world are convinced that the sheer upside of Josh Allen’s attributes will warrant a top ten pick by some NFL franchise. Others (I’m looking at you, Draft Twitter) say that Allen is a horribly overrated prospect with nearly unprecedentedly awful statistics. Sadly, some ignorant franchise will likely make Allen their version of Jake Locker and select him early in the first round. Locker, like Allen, had horrible accuracy and statistics in college, but had “all the right traits” to succeed. The NFL is enamored with quarterbacks that look the part. That probably won’t change this year.

My Thoughts

If you haven’t already gleaned this from the tone I’ve carried throughout this article I am not very high on Josh Allen. Yes, he possesses some interesting athletic traits, and has put up some fun highlight plays against truly horrible college defenses, but that shouldn’t make him a first round quarterback.

Josh Allen can do it all from time to time. If you watch him for very long you’ll find that he can go through multiple reads across the field. He can maneuver the pocket to avoid pressure when needed. Yes, Allen can even throw his slow wide receivers open from time to time when they can’t create their own separation. The problem isn’t the potential, it’s the consistency. That’s where NFL coaches and general managers get in trouble. They see the isolated instances of greatness and believe that they can hone that into consistent dominance. That may be possible, but is definitely not worth a first round pick.

If Josh Allen puts together a solid showing in the Potato Bowl and throughout the draft process he’ll almost assuredly hear his name called in round one this coming spring. That’s great news for 31 NFL franchises because it means one more solid prospect (actually) worthy of that draft capital will drop even further down the board.

I always wish the best for any young player looking to make it in the NFL. Josh Allen just has a higher percentage chance of being a disappointment than others.

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