FanDuel Bargains: Week 15
Welcome back to the FanDuel Value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. Value is hard to come by this week even on FanDuel. So strap in, suck it up and get ready to play one of the last slates of regular season DFS left.
As always we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors. As value players, they should also give you some cash relief to play higher priced players elsewhere in your lineup. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. I also refer to defensive efficiency metrics from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
Quarterback
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DeShone Kizer, QB CLE ($6700)
Line: -7
O/U: 40 BAL
OPP: BAL
Every quarterback on the value list this week ranks higher in performance metrics. No matter what you may think of Kizer long term, he has struggled in his rookie season. However, he has been putting up fantasy points while struggling. He was our quarterback value play last week as well and I’m doubling down in week 15. While there’s going to be a lot of temptation to pay up at quarterback this week I am really interested in saving with Kizer.
According to aFPA, this is the toughest matchup for him since he faced the Chargers in week 13 where he finished as the QB9 in FanDuel points for the week. But while Baltimore looks like a tough defense against the position on paper, this is the second week without their star cornerback Jimmy Smith. Pittsburgh put up 486 yards against them last week and Kizer is priced as the QB21 on the week. He also has both Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon to throw to and both have above-average matchups.
Other options: Russell Wilson ($8400), Cam Newton ($7900), Ben Roethlisberger ($8000), Blake Bortles ($7400)
Running Back
Kenyan Drake, RB MIA ($6500)
Line:-3.5
O/U: 38.5 BUF
OPP: BUF
Most lineups are going to be won or lost based on the decisions we make in the premiere games on the main slate, including whether to play Le’Veon Bell. But no matter what your decisions on Bell you will likely need at least one good value running back. Kenyan Drake is the highest ranked value play at the position.
While I don’t expect Miami to keep up its week 14 level of play, I do think that Drake’s volume should continue. He has had over 20 rushing attempts and 5 targets in both of the last two weeks and has managed to roll up over 100 rushing yards in both games. Priced as the RB13 on the week, he gets the best matchup for the position according to aFPA. I think Miami could struggle this week but Drake’s role means he should see volume no matter how the game script works out.
Other options: Latavius Murray ($6200), Alex Collins ($6600), Mike Davis ($5800)
Wide Receiver
Dede Westbrook, WR JAC ($5700)
Line: -11
O/U: 39 JAX
OPP: JAX
The Jaguars may have benefitted from a fairly easy passing schedule recently, having faced Indianapolis and a weakened Seahawks defense. That trend looks to continue in week 15. Houston’s defense ranks 29th in aFPA and has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season and the eighth-most touchdowns. Leonard Fournette has not practiced all week and Dede Westbrook has taken over as the Jaguars WR1.
Since week nine, Westbrook leads the team in Market Share of Airyards (36%), target share (26%) and red zone targets (3). He’s also been the most consistent receiver (a 0.43 Coefficient of Variation in the last five weeks) while scoring progressively more points each week. In a week where wide receiver value is difficult to find, Westbrook has volume, talent, and a plus matchups while priced as the WR35.
Other options: Mike Wallace ($5700), Rishard Matthews ($5800), Paul Richardson ($5700), Randall Cobb ($5700)
Tight End
David Njoku, TE CLE ($4800)
Line: -7
O/U: 40 BAL
OPP: BAL
A lot of people complain about the ugliness of the tight end position in a lot of weeks, but I don’t normally feel it too much. This week, I’m with them. Tight end sucks for value in week 15 and there’s no way around it. Saving elsewhere to pay up for the elite players at the position is a legitimate play this week more than most.
However, David Njoku doesn’t have to do much to break his price this week as the TE21 on the week. Baltimore isn’t an above average matchup for the position, ranking 17 in aFPA. Njoku always carries upside, because of his talent and athleticism if nothing else, but also because he is the leader in targets inside the 10-yard line (33% target share).
Other options: Delanie Walker ($6500), Charles Clay ($5300)
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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