Alex Collins: Buy, Sell or Hold?
There are plenty of talented running backs in the NFL that never live up to their potential. Generally, these are players who were either highly productive during college or workout warriors at the combine who get drafted in the middle to late rounds of the NFL Draft. These players usually draw a large fan base among dynasty leaguers due to their potential and “cheap” price tag in rookie drafts.
Alex Collins is one of those running backs. He went through the draft process as one of the most decorated running back prospects in his draft class, but he fell to the fifth round to the Seattle Seahawks. During his rookie season, he struggled to get on the field, rushing for 125 yards and one touchdown. He appeared in 11 contests last year for the Seahawks, but received no more than seven carries in any of those games. Right before the start of the season, Seattle waived Collins on September 2nd, 2017.
Once Seattle waved goodbye, he was immediately dropped from a lot of dynasty rosters. He became a speculative add for dynasty leaguers in deeper leagues once he was picked up by the Baltimore Ravens. It was hard for people to buy-in on Collins’ stock considering the Ravens were logged jammed with talent at the running back position. Javorius Allen, Terrance West and even Kenneth Dixon were threats to take over as the team’s bell cow running back at the beginning of the season. Due to his situation, most people left him for dead, expecting him to never manifest as a fantasy relevant asset.
In the last four weeks, Collins ranks fifth amongst all running backs with 79.20 PPR fantasy points while averaging 19.80 fantasy points per game. Before week 11, he only had one game with more than ten PPR fantasy points. His recent production has turned a lot of heads and is causing a massive increase in his dynasty stock.
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At Arkansas, Collins joined Hershel Walker and Darren McFadden as the third running back in SEC history to begin their career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons. He rushed for 3,703 yards and 36 touchdowns during his three-year collegiate career. In 2015, he finished the season ranked third in the SEC with 1,577 rushing yards and sixth in the nation with 20 touchdowns.
His draft profile paints the narrative of a gritty back who loves contact. He is quick to get downhill and finishes every run when he touches the ball. Ball security was his main bugaboo at Arkansas, considering he had 16 fumbles in just three seasons. At the combine, he tested with a meager 4.59 40-yard dash and a 28.5 vertical jump that ranks in the first percentile amongst running back prospects. Collins’ dismal athletic profile tempered expectations for a lot of people during the draft process.
Even though he was a below average athlete coming out of college, it’s hard to ignore his college production. He was one of the most productive backs in the 2016 draft class, which should have been enough to make him a popular end-of-bench stash a few months ago.
Collins’ ADP has experienced a wild ride in the last two years. His value started out with a 103.17 ADP back in February of 2016 and went as low as 239.33 in September of 2017. Since he became a valuable piece in Baltimore’s offense, his value has skyrocketed, climbing all the way to a 135 ADP in December. His ADP will probably climb much higher going forward, considering he gained 264 total yards and three touchdowns in the last two weeks. His long-term value is dependent on what Baltimore does this offseason. If they pickup a talented running back in the draft or free agency, then depending on the situation, Collins’ ADP could drop a little bit. If the Ravens decide not to address the running back position then his value should increase through the offseason due to perceived stability.
BUYERS
He’s worth kicking the tires on, but you might not get him at a fair price until the off-season when everyone is enamored over the incoming rookie running backs. I wouldn’t overpay for him, because you could get a comparable or better talent in next year’s rookie draft at a cheaper price point. Next year’s draft class is going to be stacked at running and there will be talented running backs falling to the second and third rounds of rookie drafts. If you like to patch up your RB slot on the cheap, then Collins might not be an obtainable option.
SELLERS
Simply, due to his recent production, now is a good time to try and sell him on the trade market. Whether you want to sell him or not, it might be a good idea to see what you can fetch for him, just in case there’s an owner in your league that is willing to overpay.
WIN-NOW TEAMS
He’s a hard sell right now. There’s only two games left in the fantasy football season, and most leagues don’t allow trades during the playoffs. If you’re in a league that still allows trading, then he’s a buy for win-now teams. Collins’ schedule is quite favorable going forward with him playing the Cleveland Browns in week 15 and the Indianapolis Colts in week 16. He could be that extra piece to get your dynasty team over the top. If you think he can help you win a championship, then pay the premium to acquire his services.
REBUILDING TEAMS
Collins is both a hold and a sell for rebuilding teams. He’s worth holding on to, because he’s a younger player with talent. He’s also worth selling, because his value is at an all-time high, and it’s worth trying to see what you can receive during trade negotiations. The worst thing that could happen, is that you don’t receive what you want and your left holding Collins on your roster. If he finishes the season strong, then he’s more than likely going to be the Ravens’ starting running back to start the 2018 season.
After reviewing DLF’s Trade Finder, it’s quite apparent that Collins is currently being valued as a second-round rookie pick which is a very fair price. Immediately pull the trigger if you get offered a first-round rookie pick during trade negations. We don’t know for sure if he’s going to be in the Ravens’ long-term plans, and with next year’s draft class being super deep at running back, it might be smart to sell while you’re ahead.
I thought Collins was a solid running back prospect a few years ago and think he’s talented enough to obtain a long-term role with the Ravens. However, I’m not for sure that is going to happen. The best thing to do here, might be to approach your other league mates to see if they are willing to overpay for him and if none of them are willing to pay-up, then the appropriate move would be to hold him. Let the other owners in your league make the decision for you. I’m also going to try and buy him in the offseason on the cheap when his value is diluted due to rookie fever. I’m definitely not going to overpay or undersell Collins on the trade market.
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