The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: December

Welcome to the third Dynasty Trading Post in what will be a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly. Now that the fantasy regular season is over, the playoffs are kicking off and the trade deadline for many leagues has passed, let’s see what assets have seen their values change most notably.

Back In The Hunt

As Kareem Hunt’s performance has declined in recent weeks, the ability for owners to obtain him has dramatically increased. Current owners might be afraid that the league is learning how to contain Hunt, while those looking to acquire him are betting that the best is still to come. Ultimately, Hunt has seen the number of trades he is involved in skyrocket.

Within the past 30 days, Hunt has been part of 42 trades in the leagues that the Dynasty Trade Finder tracks. In the 30 days prior to that, he was involved in only 19. This marks a 121.1% increase in trading volume involving the Kansas City running back, the most of any player within this time frame.

The Shrinking Beckham Trade Market

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The last time I wrote this column, Odell Beckham saw a huge spike in trade volume month over month. That window came shortly after he was injured and placed on Injured Reserve (IR). Since that time, Beckham’s trade market has returned back to normal.

Over the past 30 days, Beckham has been a piece in 34 trades, compared to 126 trades in the 30 days prior to that. This return to “normal” has seen his tradability drop by 73.0%. When compared to the last time I mentioned him, Beckham’s 34 trades are much closer to the 21 trades I referenced over that period, but is still a 61.9% increase over that period as well. This indicates a healthy trade market still exists for one of the most electric players in the league, injury or not.

Buying Elliott

In terms of sheer number of trading involving any one player, Ezekiel Elliott is, once again, the top player in dynasty. Despite his suspension, which has covered all of the preceding 30 days, Elliott’s trade market has not fluctuated. Within the past 30 days, 55 dynasty trades involving Elliott have occurred, the most of any player. Meanwhile, in the preceding 30 days, Elliott was involved in 54 trades, indicating a remarkably stable market for his long-term value.

That said, the market for Elliott appears to have shifted over the past 60 days. Currently, owners are moving him in an effort to gain the necessary pieces to make a run at a championship this season. In the prior 30 days, owners were looking to move him to escape the uncertainty involving his situation prior to his suspension going into effect. This seems similar at first glance, but the caliber of teams moving him has shifted from those struggling to make the playoffs to those who were able to weather the storm and clearly viewed Elliott as a long-term resource and who are now going “all-in” to win their respective leagues.

Picks, Picks, Get Your Picks Here!

The market for future picks has greatly diminished over the past 30 days. I believe this is due to two intertwined factors – the trade deadline tends to make a lot of teams missing the playoffs a bit more conservative with these assets. If a team knows the deadline is approaching and they are going to miss the playoffs, then why trade away the very asset that make allow you to compete in the future?

Over the past 30 days, 2018 first round picks dropped in popularity by 53.1%, 2018 second round picks dropped by 54.3% and 2018 third round picks dropped by 48.6%. Picks beyond 2019 also dropped in similar fashion with 2019 first round picks falling by 42.8%, 2019 second round picks dropping by 39.1%, 2019 third round picks deflating by 42.3%.

Thanks to Mike MacGregor, we can now also take a look at picks in the 2020 season and those, too, fell in popularity. First round picks in 2020 were 47.8% less popular over the past 30 days, 2020 second round picks dropped by 65.0% and 2020 third round picks saw a 59.4% decline. It’s fair to say, at this point, hold your draft picks because the value just isn’t there for them at this point.

How About Those Defensive Players?

Due to some issues last month I didn’t include defensive players in my previous column. Well, this month they’re back and one player dominated all trade action over the past 30 days: Brandon Graham. Graham had the most trade by volume as well as the biggest percentage increase in trading, jumping 250.0% over the 30 days prior to the examined trading window. Meanwhile, the biggest percentage dip went to Graham’s teammate, Derek Barnett. Barnett’s dip in tradability fell a full 100% from the prior 30-day period. Finally, the biggest drop by pure volume standards goes to both Everson Griffen and J.J. Watt.

The Raw Numbers

For those interested in the number of trades tracked by the Dynasty Trade Finder involving the top 40 ranked players on each side of the ball and trades involving draft picks, here’s the data you’re looking for:

Trades Involving Offense Players Only: 835 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 1886 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

Trades Involving Defensive Players: 88 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 1896 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

Trades Involving Draft Picks: 1897 unique trades occurred in the last 30 days while 3903 unique trades occurred in the prior 30 days.

The next edition of the Dynasty Trading Post will focus on how dynasty owners are altering their trading strategies with the end of the fantasy football season. I expect to see trades involving draft picks pick up, with a noticeable uptick surrounding draft picks for the 2019 season. Sure, draft picks for the 2018 season will be the most popular, but as 2019 draft picks become available to trade in the coming months, we should see should see demand for this asset significantly expand. Happy trading everyone!

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