Welcome back to the FanDuel Value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry.
We are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors. As value players, they should also give you some cash relief to play higher priced players elsewhere in your lineup. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. When also refer to defensive efficiency metrics from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
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DeShone Kizer, QB CLE ($6400)
O/U: 43.5 GB
DeShone Kizer is priced as the QB24 on the same week his new receiver, Josh Gordon, is almost certain to be highly owned. He has a good matchup against Green Bay who rank 31st in aFPA to the quarterback position. The Packers have struggled to find any answers in the cornerback position this year and the results have been apparent. Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com indicates that, since week nine, they have given up above average RACR (receiving efficiency) at almost every depth of target.
Not only does Kizer give you access to Gordon’s production but also to David Njoku and Corey Coleman. They are difficult starts in their own right, but are athletic marvels who are more than capable of succeeding against this defense. Kizer has also developed a good rushing floor and has averaged 41 rushing yards a game (and has two rushing touchdowns) in his last four games.
Other Options: Jameis Winston ($7200), Blaine Gabbert ($6400), Jimmy Garoppolo ($7000)
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN ($5100)
O/U: 38.5 CIN
Giovani Bernard is a lock play on FanDuel, but he is the best value running back this week. He is a clear “free square” running back now that both Jeremy Hill and Joe Mixon are unable to play. I honestly think the main attraction this week, however, is that he is a really good running back in his own right. He has finished as a top 24 running back in two separate seasons (2013 and 2014) and has accumulated 4549 total yards and 22 touchdowns. He’s not just a volume/price play, but a talented player who can lead a backfield successfully.
Priced as the RB48, he has a tough matchup on paper against a Bears defense ranked fourth in aFPA. But the defense has also been getting worse as the season has progressed and they have given up the tenth-most touchdowns and the 12th-most rushing yards to the position. They also rank 24th against pass catching running backs according to sharpfootballstats.com. While the catches are not as valuable on FanDuel it’s worth noting that both Ty Montgomery and Ameer Abdullah have caught touchdowns against the Bears in their last four games.
Other Options: Lamar Miller ($6600), Mike Davis ($5500)
Marquise Goodwin, WR SF ($5700)
O/U: 43.5 HOU
In the first game with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Marquise Goodwin enjoyed a 21.6% target share last week (eight total targets). One week as the leading target with a new quarterback isn’t solid proof the trend will continue. Trent Taylor and Louis Murphy also had six targets (16.2%) and Carlos Hyde had five (13.5%).
But, Goodwin is priced as the WR36 on the week and has the 28th aFPA matchup against a struggling Houston defense. His aDOT (18.2) is a reminder that he is an Olympic level sprinter with a lot of big play upside. But of the eight targets last week only one of them was deep (to the left) according to pro-football-reference.com. In other words, he was not just a “deep threat” last week, and it’s yet another indication of his increased role in the offence.
Other Options; Josh Gordon ($6700), Marvin Jones ($7000), Sammy Watkins ($6300)
Cameron Brate, TE TB ($5400)
O/U: N/A DET
Jameis Winston returned last week and Cameron Brate’s targets jumped back up to six (18.8%) and he also caught two touchdowns. He has six touchdowns this season and five of them were thrown by Winston. O.J Howard has a bright future and a growing role but it is clear Winston and Brate have benefited from a connection extending back to last year when he caught nine touchdowns (eight of them from Winston).
This week the duo goes up against the second best tight end matchup in the NFL (31st aFPA) who have conceded four touchdowns in the last three games to the position. Brate is still second on the team in red zone targets (16.7%) despite Winston’s absence in the last few weeks. The game itself does not yet have a projected total while we wait for news about Matthew Stafford’s health.
Other options: Stephen Anderson ($4500), David Njoku ($4700), Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5900)