Kareem Hunt: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Bruce Matson Posted On December 8, 2017

The playoffs are in full swing in most dynasty leagues and whether your league has a trade deadline or not, there’s always time to reflect and figure out ways to improve your team. Bolstering your team by selling off assets to make a championship run should be on the minds of all owners who have the chance at competing in the playoffs. On the contrary, rebuilding teams should be taking advantage of teams that are trying to make a final championship push by trying to sell their depreciating assets for draft picks and young prospects.

The trade deadline has passed in a lot of leagues and that means a lot of dynasty owners aren’t able to trade right now. Those owners should be prospecting and planning their next moves once leagues reopen in the off-season. Evaluating the players that are currently on your roster and determining if they will remain long-term assets for your team will indicate whether you will want to move certain players on your roster via trade once the off-season hits.

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Kareem Hunt blew the doors off the NFL in his first game by rushing for 148 yards and one touchdown while catching five passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the New England Patriots. His reputation amongst fantasy gamers grew to legendary status, after he scored a total of 96.8 PPR fantasy points in the first three games of his career. By gaining over 100 total yards in each of his first seven games, his value in dynasty grew to monumental proportions.

With his production going through the roof during the beginning of the season a regression seemed imminent. Recently, in his last few games, we’ve seen a dip in his statistical output. Hunt has scored just 45 PPR fantasy points in his last five games, ranking him 36th in the league in PPR scoring amongst running backs during that time-span.

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The chart above is a good display of Hunt’s week to week scores this season. As you can see, he was at his best during the first three weeks of the season, then his numbers regressed to the mean before tapering off during the last few weeks. A reduction in output has tempered the feelings for a lot of fantasy owners, creating an unexpected market shift in some dynasty leagues. The shift in value creates a buying opportunity that could allow dynasty owners to acquire Hunt at a reduced price. There were some owners a few weeks ago that wouldn’t even think about entertaining trade offers for him due to his incredible play during the first few weeks of the season, but now they should be willing to at least look at some of the trade offers that have been resting in their inbox.

Timing is everything in dynasty. Waiting for the right time to pounce on another owner’s player increases the odds of being able to obtain that player during trade negotiations. It’s awesome to trade for players while they’re leading the league in scoring, but high-end production comes at a stiff premium. It’s best to wait for an injury, production dip or some sort of off the field issue to lower the player’s perceived fantasy value instead of mortgaging your future for that player.

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Hunt’s historical ADP shows a steady incline in the last year. From February until now he went from a 122 ADP to an ADP in the top-15. His stock is about as high as it can get. With seven running backs ahead of him in ADP, Hunt remains a highly sought-after asset. He can be traded for just about anything, making him a very lucrative player to have on your dynasty roster. The added fluidity to his stock increases his value in dynasty, because it’s easier to use him to transition your team in a trade than compared to most players in dynasty. This doesn’t mean you should sell him now, but it means you should be aware of what type of asset you have on your hands. Hunt has a lot of fans and I guarantee there are at least two or three owners in your league that would love to have him on their team. Even if his ADP drops in the near future, you probably could sell him at an extremely high price point.

BUYERS

If trading is still open in your league then you need to be thinking about sending a trade offer for Hunt. There are fantasy owners out there worried about his recent production which could allow them to trade him away if they receive the right offer. Another good buying point would be in the off-season after the NFL Combine when rookie fever starts to infest in a lot of dynasty owners. Next year’s draft is going to be very exciting because it will be loaded with talented running backs. An increase in running back talent in the NFL will dilute the value in some players in dynasty, dropping the asking price for talented players like Hunt. This doesn’t guarantee he will be discounted in the off-season, because there will still be a lot of dynasty aficionados who won’t loosen their death grip on him, but it does present an opportunity to try an acquire his services via trade.

SELLERS

Even if his value in dynasty dips in the near future, there will always be a buyer who is willing to pay a premium for him on the trade market. If you’re not a fan and wish to get rid of him, now is not the time to trade him away. I would wait until he’s producing again to seek the most optimal return on your investment. Also, be aware of other owners who might try to take advantage of Hunt’s sudden drop in production by sending low-ball offers in hopes to receive him at a discount. Hold-pat, don’t sell him on the low, he’s a very talented player and he should bounce back in the near future.

WIN-NOW TEAMS

He’s a major hold for win-now teams, because he’s a starting running back who has the potential to put up big numbers on any given week. You own the negotiating table, get what you want in the trade or don’t make the deal. Don’t sell him on the low just because you need a few extra pieces to make a championship run. More than likely, there are better ways to improve your roster by using other assets.

REBUILDING TEAMS

Hunt is the perfect player for younger rosters, because he’s 22-years-old and has shown to produce at an extremely high level. I wouldn’t be against packaging multiple older players in a trade to try and acquire him. However, if you own him and he’s the only asset that holds value on your team, then you might want to think about selling him for multiple drafts picks and prospects to expedite the rebuilding process.

After viewing DLF’s Trade Finder, it’s easy to say that Hunt’s value is all over the place on the trade market. One of the most notable deals I’ve seen, is him getting traded for a 2018 first round pick, my guess is that most of those first-rounders are at least in the top-five of next year’s rookie drafts. One of the most interesting deals posted on the Trade Finder, is Hunt being traded for Derrick Henry and 2018 first, fourth and fifth round draft picks. This deal is interesting, because it involves a talented young running back prospect and a bevy of picks. The best advice I can give after looking through all of these deals, is to always maximize value and only deal him for exactly what you want. Be cerebral in all trade negations, and don’t trade him just to trade him.

I believe in Hunt’s talent and I think he will be a valuable fantasy asset for years to come. Due to his fluidity on the trade market, he’s a buy, sell and hold for me. It really depends on how my dynasty team is structured to how I value him. I’m buying Hunt when the price is right and selling him when I can receive max value. He’s defiantly worth kicking the tires to see what you can receive or pay on the trade market.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.