Dynasty Stock Market: 2017 Rookie Draft Do-Over, Part Two

Ryan McDowell

Editor’s note: Make sure you check out part one of the 2017 Rookie Draft Do-Over.

Believe it or not, the fantasy football playoffs are right around the corner. In fact, they’ve already started in many dynasty leagues. While many dynasty players are looking ahead, hoping to bring home a title, others have entered a retrospective period, analyzing things that went right and wrong over the past several months. Oftentimes, the fate of our respective fantasy seasons can be traced back to rookie drafts, so this seemed like an ideal time to bring a crew of fantasy writers together and take part in a rookie draft do-over.

Although I sat this one out, I was able to gather some of the folks I respect the most in this hobby of ours, listed here in the order they drafted…

  • Dwayne Brown, Dynasty League Football
  • Matt Williamson, Dynasty Blueprint
  • Brian Malone, Dynasty League Football
  • Mike Clay, ESPN
  • Heath Cummings, CBS
  • Adam Harstad, FootballGuys
  • Matt Harmon, NFL Fantasy
  • George Kritikos, Pro Football Focus
  • Curtis Patrick, Dynasty League Football
  • Rich Hribar, Rotoworld
  • Sigmund Bloom, FootballGuys
  • Russell Clay, Dynasty Command Center

These twelve agreed to participate in a three-round 2017 rookie mock draft based on what we know 12 weeks into the season. As you might expect, a lot has changed since the pre-season. Here are the results of the second and third rounds.

2.01 – Kenny Golladay, WR DET

Pre-season ADP: 3.04

Lions rookie receiver Golladay began by dazzling in the preseason, which was the first boost to his value. Since then, he’s missed a lot of time due to injury, but when healthy has proven to be a deep play threat for quarterback Matthew Stafford. He still remains the third option in the offense, for now.

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2.02 – Aaron Jones, RB GB

Pre-season ADP: 4.01

For a while this season, Jones, the second rookie back drafted by the Packers, was the last man standing in the Green Bay backfield. With both Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams dealing with injuries, Jones took advantage and his dynasty value climbed quickly. Since then, he’s been injured too, so the future of the Packers backfield is still in doubt.

2.03 – John Ross, WR CIN

Pre-season ADP: 1.10

One of the biggest rookie busts of the season has been Bengals first-rounder Ross, who has barely seen the field due to both injuries and simply being deemed a healthy scratch. Ross’s history of injury woes scared some dynasty players away, but he still maintained a first round ADP in the pre-season, though his value has clearly declined through the first three-fourths of the season.

2.04 – Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

Pre-season ADP: 2.12

Kupp, the older rookie receiver from the small school, has proven to be one of the key figures in the Rams offensive turnaround. The Rams hired a new head coach in Sean McVay and added a trio of receivers, namely Kupp along with Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, and despite the established veterans, Kupp has often looked like the favorite target of quarterback Jared Goff.

2.05 – Zay Jones, WR BUF

Pre-season ADP: 2.02

After the Bills surprisingly dealt Watkins during the preseason, the stock of rookie receiver Jones got a major boost as most viewed him as the de facto WR1 in Buffalo. Through much of the season, Jones has disappointed, especially struggling with drops. Jones’ upside remains though and he is almost sure to be paired with a new quarterback in 2018.

2.06 – David Njoku, TE CLE

Pre-season ADP: 1.12

I was surprised to see Njoku, the Browns rookie tight end, fall this far. Along with first-rounders OJ Howard and Evan Engram, dynasty players valued the trio in the same range throughout the off-season, yet the others maintained their first-round value. Both Njoku and Howard have flashed enough to give dynasty players hope for the future and I still value them in the same tier.

2.07 – Samaje Perine, RB WAS

Pre-season ADP: 1.08

After a slow start, Perine has been able to take advantage of injuries to Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson. I still view him as a low-ceiling weekly option and far from a lock to be the long-term starter for the Redskins, but at this point of the draft, he makes for a nice value pick.

2.08 – Marlon Mack, RB INDmack

Pre-season ADP: 2.06

The Colts have stubbornly continued to ride veteran Frank Gore even in what has been a lost season from the start. When given opportunities though, the rookie back Mack has flashed and shown some big play ability. He’s not the type who is ever going to have a backfield to himself, but he can be a strong second piece and his role will almost certainly grow in 2018.

2.09 – Curtis Samuel, WR CAR

Pre-season ADP: 2.05

The Panthers reportedly made the Kelvin Benjamin trade in part to get more touches for former Ohio State star Samuel, but soon after the trade, an injury ended Samuel’s season. Carolina is a tough offense to project and they likely will attempt to add an impact wideout, which could once again limit Samuel’s overall opportunity.

2.10 – Dede Westbrook, WR JAC

Pre-season ADP: 4.05

What a ride for Westbrook, one of last season’s Heisman finalists. After a tough off-season, Westbrook lit things up in the pre-season and had fantasy players chasing him, but that changed with an injury that landed him on the injured reserve. He’s now back and playing an immediate role, albeit in the Jags run-heavy offense. He’s a player that could leap frog many of those ahead of him if he keeps producing.

2.11 – Chris Godwin, WR TB

Pre-season ADP: 2.10

Former Penn State wideout Godwin is someone who drew a lot of off-season hype and seemingly landed in a nice spot with a young explosive offense. The bad news is Godwin’s role has been limited and the Tampa offense has sputtered. I still like Godwin as a buy low target this off-season.

2.12 – Jonnu Smith, TE TEN

Pre-season ADP: 4.09

This pick was a bit of a surprise, though I love the long-term upside of the Titans rookie tight end Smith. With Delanie Walker still producing at a high level, Smith’s role has been limited, but Walker has also dealt with multiple minor injuries this season and he’ll be 34-years-old before the 2018 season begins. Smith’s time is coming!

3.01 – D’Onta Foreman, RB HOU

Pre-season ADP: 2.04

Just as the rookie Foreman was starting to eat into the touches of Houston’s starting running back Lamar Miller, he suffered a nasty Achilles injury, ending his season. That injury will likely hamper his value throughout the off-season, but could also slow him down in the early portion of 2018. If you don’t like Miller, you should be buying Foreman at this newly discounted price.

3.02 – Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

Pre-season ADP: 3.02

In a career-year for Chiefs starting quarterback Alex Smith, we’ve yet to see the team’s first-round draft pick, Mahomes. It seems that while other rookie signal callers like DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky have actually hurt their dynasty value by playing, Mahomes has been nicely aging on the sideline, ready to make an impact next season, or maybe even earlier. He’s a steal in the early third-round.

3.03 – Chris Carson, RB SEA

Pre-season ADP: 4.04

After nearly exhausting their options at the running back position, the Seahawks turned to little-known rookie Carson, who exploded for some immediate production, pushing dynasty players to re-evaluate the former Oklahoma State back. Like many other rookies before him, an injury ended Carson’s season and his long-term value is to be determined with the carousel that is the Seattle backfield.

3.04 – Jamaal Williams, RB GBwilliams

Pre-season ADP: 2.08

Speaking of carousel backfields, the Packers have trotted out a trio of starters this season due to injuries. Season-opening starter Ty Montgomery only lasted a few games before a rib injury put him out of action and he later laned on the injured reserve with rib and wrist injuries. That left a pair of rookies to lead the way, including the previously mentioned Aaron Jones and Williams. Williams was drafted first and was the team’s next option after Montgomery’s injury, but he himself got hurt. Finally, Jones missed time and opened the window for Williams again, and he’s played relatively well, but not well enough to claim the lead back role. He’s just a solid part of a committee.

3.05 – Tarik Cohen, RB CHI

Pre-season ADP: 5.03

After the first few weeks of the season, Bears explosive rookie back Cohen was playing out of his mind, contributing in the passing game and special teams, but the coaching staff has inexplicably toyed with his playing time, killing his dynasty value. With head coach John Fox almost a lock to be fired, I am eager to see what Cohen can do under a new coaching staff.

3.06 – Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI

Pre-season ADP: 3.05

Speaking of the Bears, after the Mike Glennon early-season act was ended, the team trotted out second overall pick, Trubisky and with no passing weapons, a disappointing run game and a lame duck head coach, it went quite poorly. There is hope for Trubisky, as shown by Jared Goff this season, but that hope lies more in his draft pedigree rather than what we’ve seen on the field this season.

3.07 – Mack Hollins, WR PHI

Pre-season ADP: 5.05

Hollins’ story is a great one. He entered college at North Carolina as a walk on and left as a starter. He entered the NFL as a late-round draft pick and has essentially usurped veteran Torrey Smith as the top deep threat for breakout quarterback Carson Wentz. With limited targets, Hollins’ dynasty value remains low compared to others in this stacked class, but he’s a nice player to stash at the end of your bench.

3.08 – Gerald Everett, TE LAR

Pre-season ADP: 3.09

Suggestions of rookie Everett serving as the Rams version of Jordan Reed might have been a bit presumptuous, but he has seen some playing time, alongside second-year man Tyler Higbee. Both have upside, but only one likely has long-term value. I’d bet on Everett.

3.09 – Adam Shaheen, TE CHI

Pre-season ADP: 3.10

Sadly, veteran tight end Zach Miller suffered a horrific leg injury a few weeks back. That will likely end Miller’s career, at the same time, paving the way for rookie Shaheen to claim the starting job. Again, the Bears have been a train wreck, but the rookie combination of Trubisky and Shaheen have connected multiple times in the red zone.

3.10 – Matt Breida, RB SF

Pre-season ADP: N/A

I’m a little surprised Breida, the 49ers undrafted rookie back, wasn’t selected earlier. He’s had a successful rookie campaign, serving as the primary backup for starter Carlos Hyde, even playing over Hyde for a game or two. With Hyde nearly a lock to leave town this off-season, Breida’s role could greatly increase. Or they could just draft Saquon Barkley.

3.11 – James Conner, RB PIT

Pre-season ADP: 2.11

With superstar running back Le’Veon Bell always a threat to miss gametime, dynasty owners were treating former Pitt star Conner as a sure thing. This season though, not only has Bell stayed healthy and out of trouble, but he’s on near record pace for number of touches in a season, leaving little room for Conner to even see the field.

3.12 – Taywan Taylor, WR TEN

Pre-season ADP: 3.08

I love this pick and I love this player. Even in a season when the entire Titans offense has performed below expectation, the rookie Taylor has come in and made some plays. With the veteran Eric Decker clearly near the end of his career, Taylor is another buy low target and his cost might be even cheaper than I projected.

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ryan mcdowell