Welcome back to the weekly value article for the FanDuel main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry.
We are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors. As value players, they should also give you some cash relief to play higher priced players elsewhere in your lineup. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
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Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and pro-football-reference.com to find raw stats. When referring to defensive efficiency metrics I’m using www.sharpfootballstats.com.
Quarterback
Philip Rivers, QB LAC ($8000)
Line: -14
O/U: 42 LAC
OPP: CLE
The Chargers should keep rolling in week 13 after their blowout victory against the Dallas. The Browns rank 28th against the quarterback position in aFPA, a slightly better matchup than the Cowboys. Los Angeles are in the playoff hunt and have to approach every game like a necessity.
Despite Joe Mixon piling up a career game against them last week, the Browns best defense is still in its run game which means Rivers should find plenty of reason to air it out. He’s not a cheap value but is priced as the QB6 on the week.
Other Options: Brett Hundley (6400), Tyrod Taylor (7300)
Running Back
Dion Lewis, RB NE ($6300)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 49 NE
OPP: BUF
Dion Lewis has been the between-the-tackles running back for the Patriots the last few weeks. He has over 50 rushing yards in each of the last three games and had over 100 yards against Miami in week 12.
Betting on a Patriots running back is always a risky move, but Buffalo has given up more rushing touchdowns (13) than any other team in the league. They rank 31st in aFPA against the running back position and Lewis has led the team in attempts inside the ten-yard line (9) – despite only single digit rushing attempts until week six. He’s priced as the RB16 on the week as a strong road favorite in the highest projected game total of the week.
Other Options: Marshawn Lynch (6200), Alex Collins (5900)
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, WR GB ($5400)
Line: -2
O/U: 44.5 TEN
OPP: TB
This game total isn’t in the top five for the week but it won’t be overlooked by GPP players. Brett Hundley has found a level of consistency in the last few weeks, but even when struggling it’s been clear that he really only has eyes for Adams. The wideout has 10, 8, 10, and 9 targets in the last four weeks for 28.7% of the team’s market share of targets.
Tampa Bay is the best matchup for wide receivers in the NFL right now (32nd in aFPA). Jameis Winston is expected to boost the offense this week and despite its low projection, and this game could easily be a shoot out. Adams should get all the opportunity he could want to put up points either way and somehow is still priced as the WR26.
Other Options; Zay Jones (4500), Cooper Kupp (6300), Robby Anderson (7100), Dontrelle Inman (4900)
Tight End
Jared Cook, TE, OAK, (5500)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 42
OPP: NYG
Jared Cook shows up as the highest value at the tight end position this week. This is based on his price rank (13) and his projected production from 4for4.com. The Giants rank dead last in aFPA against the tight end position. Washington ended the touchdown streak in week 12 but up until then, a tight end had scored against them in every game going back to last season.
Cook has an 18.6% target market share the last four weeks and Amari Cooper, the leader in targets in the same time span, has already been ruled out for this week because of a concussion. At the same time, Michael Crabtree is suspended for unsportsmanlike conduct. Cook is the only target left from the core skill position group and he’s in the best possible matchup for his position.
Other options: Josh Hill (4500), Hunter Henry (5400)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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