Vox Talks: Alvin Kamara’s Rookie Draft Value
Welcome back to another edition of Vox Talks; the series that peels back the curtain on the private DLF writer Voxer chat.
I said last Sunday on the DLF Dynasty Podcast that I didn’t even want to talk about Alvin Kamara as an “Up” anymore because we had talked about him nearly every week, but then he went and outdid himself once again with an incredible week 13 performance.
He, along with Mark Ingram and the New Orleans offensive line, have been so good at running the ball in 2017 that they have pushed Drew Brees outside the top ten at the position on a points per game basis. He was QB1 in 2016 and QB5 in 2015. One of the most prolific fantasy quarterbacks of the last decade has turned into a mediocre option due in large part to a rookie that I was completely wrong about.
To me, he was a maddening prospect to watch on film because he wanted to bounce everything outside, often costing his team huge chunks of yardage because he was unwilling to take what was blocked for him. He seemed allergic to running between the tackles. That’s all changed now and I wish I owned more than one lonely little share across my 15 leagues.
Image from DLF’s Dynasty Player Comparison tool.
I asked my co-hosts, Dan Meylor and Chad Scott, if it was unreasonable to expect Kamara to be a late second-round startup pick in December mock drafts. It turns out I might have been low on that guess. Across all four mocks he was selected at seventh overall, tenth overall, 20th overall and 23rd overall.
In most of my startup drafts, the first rookie typically goes off the board in the mid-late second round so I wondered if that meant he was the 1.01 in the 2017 rookie class if we were redrafting it today. That’ led me to the question for our writers this week:
“Where would you select Alvin Kamara if your 2017 rookie draft was today?”
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I think it’s the most difficult question you’ve asked. This class has shown a lot from the first rounders. I was squarely in the Kareem Hunt redraft camp but with his performance recently I may be down on that a bit. I think my top three would be some order of Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Kamara, but would accept arguments that Dalvin Cook or Corey Davis belong in there too.
I want to put Kamara at the top because he’s only the 11th rookie running back since 1920 to have 500 yards receiving and rushing, but then I remember Giovani Bernard did that too. I like Gio but wouldn’t consider him the equivalent of an early first. If we knew Kamara was going to be the lead back, I’d easily have him 1.01 but Ingram being around complicates thing. I’d say I’d have him 1.03 or 1.04 after Leonard Fournette, Hunt, and maybe Davis.
I like Davis but here’s my thinking: I also like DeVante Parker and everyone is down on him now. I don’t think valuing running backs past a year or two is usually good, but who are we to say that all four don’t put outproduce Davis? I’m still in the camp that believes or wants to believe Davis will be great but I’m afraid my wide receivers are better than running backs bias is getting the best of me.
If we were to do it all over again, I think I’d be taking Kamara as the fourth running back off the board. I would still be favoring Fournette, Cook, and Hunt. It’s close between Kamara and Hunt, but I’m taking Hunt because in my mind he is the clear starter. I think the Saints will continue the committee approach in their backfield for the foreseeable future. The real question for me might be if I would take all four of those backs before considering a wide receiver.
Hunt, McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Fournette for me. Kamara’s clearly been fantastic but I have to fade the efficiency and still can’t explain his lack of use in college. There is potential for this season to be an extreme outlier. I was wrong on Cook, he turned out to be better than what I thought.
Kamara is my 1.04, behind Fournette, Hunt, and Davis. Fournette has slowed down and his ankle is a slight concern long-term, but I think he’ll have more room to run once Jacksonville has a competent quarterback that provides some sort of offensive threat. Hunt’s usage has been maddening recently, but his talent is real, I don’t think the offense will sputter like this forever, and we got a glimpse of his upside already. Davis has been frustrating, but was a blue-chip WR prospect and has flashed already. I gravitate towards the player with the ability to be an alpha WR1 in close calls.
That leaves Kamara. I think his talent is legitimate and think he’s being used perfectly, but I don’t think his current production is sustainable (both his yardage per touch and his touchdowns). He’s historically efficient right now. While he may see an uptick in usage when Ingram finally leaves (whether that’s 2018, 2019, or later), it will (probably) hurt his efficiency further. The additional volume is always a good thing, but more carries in lieu of being used creatively in the passing game might not give him the bump some expect.
Having said all that, I wouldn’t have any qualms with anyone who has Kamara a few spots higher.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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