Vox Talks: Fringe Playoff Teams and their 2018 First Round Rookie Pick
Welcome back to another edition of Vox Talks; the series that peels back the curtain on the private DLF writer Voxer chat.
Most leagues are just a week away from the fantasy playoffs and in many leagues that means the trade deadline is also approaching. I won’t get into the pros and cons of trade deadlines here, but check out the podcast Sunday evening and we will get into that.
This week I threw the following question at our writers: If you are a fringe playoff team are you willing to move your 2018 first round pick for a piece that can put you over the top?
I’ve been on record saying that I’m always willing to move my draft picks for current production. Rookies have such a low hit rate that in most cases I’d rather have the player that I know has already put up fantasy points over the longshot that may not even crack the top 100 players. If my rookie pick isn’t likely to be a top three overall selection then it’s likely getting moved if I think it will help get me a piece that will help me grab one of those last playoff spots. We l know that once you hit the playoffs lady luck takes the reigns and either guides you to a title or drives your squad right off the cliff. Either way, I want the shot at taking home a title.
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Unless I’ve committed to a reload I’m taking every chance I can to get into the playoffs. Once the playoffs start anything can happen. Additionally, if I’m close to making it, presumably my team has enough of a solid foundation that the piece I added can contribute to the following year as well.
If I’m a fringe playoff team then I have a hard time believing that a single player will put me over the top. In my opinion, it is best to cross your fingers and try to get into the money then add to your team through the draft. If a team is just on the fringe then it’s likely that team is one, two or even three years away from winning it. Why not be patient and build a true dynasty with younger superstars rather than get impatient and narrow your window for domination? Furthermore, given the depth of talent that next year’s class is shaping up to include, an owner could find themselves in a significantly worse position this time next year.
I’m in the rookie picks are overvalued camp, and I prefer to trade them as close to the draft as possible (as excitement is building) to maximize the value I get in return. If I’m a stronger team that has run into some bad luck, I’m okay with shipping off a first for a win-now piece (or package). In other scenarios, I’m against it. If you’re getting just a single player in return, it’s unlikely that a mid-late will net you a stud. And if that player you’re getting isn’t a stud, it doesn’t make much sense to me to make those trades. You’re replacing a player in your existing lineup with whoever you’d get in a trade, and while that could certainly have value, I doubt the difference is large enough to truly impact the outcome of a playoff matchup.
I’ve done a ton of rookie selection research now for about 17 years detailing how likely draft picks are to become fantasy studs or duds. In most cases, I’d much rather have a known player and production over a pick outside the 1.03 or so. Of course, each year has depth at different positions but I still think there’s a disconnect between the value of rookie picks and the actual production of the rookies once they hit the NFL. So, yes, I will move back half first round picks for young productive players
I am definitely willing to move later firsts this year where I am contending. One reason is an early look at the incoming class doesn’t really excite me. I see little value difference in the late first through mid second and it will always be easier to sell firsts and buy seconds. Also, as the trade deadline approaches each year, some of the bottom-feeding teams become desperate to move productive pieces in order to help their draft position or simply get a return on a player while they can. That can result in contending teams getting a major bargain.
Some owners build around value and spend their time thinking about creating the best team on paper. I’m personally in it for one thing: championships. I’m absolutely willing to move my later firsts to scoop up pieces that could help me in a playoff run. So much of fantasy (at least in-season) comes down to luck, and sometimes you just have to get in the dance to end up winning it all. So while some owners will give up firsts only when you pry it out of their hands, I’m always willing to deal if it gives me a shot at that ring.
Leave your own answer to the question in the comments below!
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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