Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 11

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in this column. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example. Corey Davis didn’t have a great fantasy output, but he got 10 targets. I’m moving him up due to opportunity and situation.

Total hit percent for Week 10: 61.5%

EARLY GAMES

ARIZONA AT HOUSTON

Guess who has been feasting and just got a contract extension? Larry Fitzgerald, that’s who. The assumption until now has been that he would hang up his cleats after 2017, so his dynasty value reflected that. Suddenly he has more games of production left and all he has to do is go out there and not get hurt for his value to increase.

Bruce Ellington has been getting talked up with Will Fuller injured again, and he’s also producing. That’s enough for me, let’s keep tabs on what he does this weekend. He could be a cheap option to get some very volatile production for a stretch run.

BALTIMORE AT GREEN BAY

It isn’t often that I look at a team and my first thought is just “Gross, I have to write about someone here?” That’s the case for the Ravens. Since I have to pick someone, I’ll go with Javorius Allen. He has been volatile this season, sometimes exploding and other times disappearing. With Kenneth Dixon looking to return to the mix in 2018, Allen needs to solidify himself and move up in value, or his value should drop.

Since Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone turned to swiss cheese, the running back carousel in Green Bay has been in full effect. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, the guy to watch each week keeps changing. Week 11 is no different, as we now see Jamaal Williams with all of the opportunity. Since Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones each showed high ceilings and low floors this season, it’s time to see if he can add consistency to the mix and carve out a meaningful future role.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO

Remember Golden Tate? Yeah, it sure doesn’t feel like the fantasy community remembers him. But we do. Because he good. I keep talking about trends in this article for a reason, and Tate is on some awesome trends right now. Seven or more targets since week five, 86 or more yards since week six, and 16+ yards per reception in each of the last two weeks. He is producing at a prolific rate right now and that means his value should move up until this trend cracks.

Lately I’ve been bringing up Detroit’s average run defense as a nice litmus test for running backs. I’ve also been bringing up Jordan Howard as someone who needs some more production consistency when the opportunity is there. This is a great situation to watch for him. Can he get it going against an average run defense? Then he goes up. If not, I’m ready to move him down for consistency reasons.

JACKSONVILLE AT CLEVELAND

How about Marcedes Lewis? He is inconsistent, but with 15.25 yards per reception this season and going up against the Browns, he could blow up here. He only has less than three targets per game on the year, but boil that down to the past two weeks and he is getting five or more.

For the Browns, we finally see some consistency from off-season darling Isaiah Crowell. He may be seeing a value rebound of sorts in the works with over 5.5 YPC the past two games and totalling over 35 fantasy points in that same span. The Jaguars have proven susceptible on the ground, and he could be a good value up candidate.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW YORK GIANTS

This one is pretty easy. Travis Kelce is Gronking harder than Rob Gronkowski this season, edging him out in points per game. While they’re roughly the same age, Kelce has been healthier since his rookie season. Finally, the Giants are terrible at defending tight ends. This week could be the start of Kelce solidifying himself as the top dynasty tight end, unless you (wisely) already have Evan Engram pencilled in there.

Since returning to health, Sterling Shepard has proven that he can operate as a featured player in the passing game and succeed in the NFL. That is huge for his dynasty value, considering one day Brandon Marshall will be gone and presumably Shepard will get to share the field with Odell Beckham and Evan Engram. Continuing to prove himself will only help his value to sustain through the coming lulls.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT MINNESOTA

I am truly late to the party on this one, but at least I got the Gurley calls right. Robert Woods looks like a stud right now and that trend doesn’t appear to be going away. As long as Woods can keep scoring double digit fantasy points consistently, his value should continue trending upwards.

I am not sure why Latavius Murray isn’t getting more attention than he is. Sure, he hasn’t blown up this season or anything, but the Rams have been terrible against the run and Murray is getting quite a few carries each week. As a dart throw heading into the fantasy playoffs, we could do a lot worse.

TAMPA BAY AT MIAMI

Between a shoulder injury and new sexual assault allegations, Jameis Winston could be the Buccaneer with the biggest value pivot this week despite not playing. In addition to those two concerns, we will need to monitor Ryan Fitzpatrick’s play. If he can play well for the team, he could be an adequate player for 2018 while Winston’s off-field situation shakes out.

Since returning from injury, DeVante Parker has had two solid games but hasn’t really blown up. The Buccaneers pass defense could be what the doctor ordered to cure that. This team has struggled mightily to slow the passing game, and I’m looking to Parker at the beneficiary of that deficiency.

WASHINGTON AT NEW ORLEANS

2016 Sunday Morning Huddle favorite Jamison Crowder had a rough first half of the season this year. Over the past two games, he has gotten double digit targets each week and is putting up relevant fantasty output again. That’s a trend I like to continue, and the biggest thing that could help him would be converting more targets to receptions. Against an apparently stout Saints defense, can he improve?

While not, at any point, operating as the featured player out of the backfield, Alvin Kamara has scored double digit points every week beginning in week three. What even is that? I won’t argue, the sky is the limit for Kamara as a satellite back. I don’t care about the matchup, just keep watching this kid as he likely would be a top three pick if we redrafted this rookie class.

LATE GAMES

BUFFALO AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

What do the Buffalo Bills look like in the Nathan Peterman era? I have no idea, but LeSean McCoy figures to be even more featured than he was before. Let’s watch closely to confirm if that suspicion is correct. If it is, we move him up.

Last week I banged the drum for the wrong Chargers running back in Melvin Gordon, while Austin Ekeler went gangbusters. The result was a value down for Gordon, but I’m back to the well this week. He has been a workhorse and produced for this team all season, and I think the team commits to him this week. Against a Bills defense that just got scorched by Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, I like the upside for a bounceback here.

CINCINNATI AT DENVER

The Denver Broncos defense: good at most things. One thing they excel at being terrible against? Tight ends. Enter Tyler Kroft, who isn’t great but is just good enough to exploit opportunities like this. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the more he can do while Tyler Eifert is out, the bigger the dent he can put in Eifert’s future value. Kroft could still be ascending here.

The Bengals are exploitable by running backs, but presumed feature back CJ Anderson is in the middle of a three headed committee. As long as this continues, it will be torpedoing his value and keeping anyone else’s value from really coming up either. If he can’t rack up points here, I don’t have high hopes for him being more than a flex moving forward.

NEW ENGLAND AT OAKLAND

It turns out this Tom Brady kid can play some football. It’s amazing that, in his age 40 season, he inspired such confidence that his team jettisoned a promising potential replacement. As well as he is playing right now, it’s hard not to believe Tom when he says he wants to play until he’s 45. Let’s recognize him as the GOAT he is. He is propping this team up on his own, exploiting defenses and staying clean.

Derek Carr has looked like both a stud and a dud in his career. He’s been up and down this season with two games under 10 fantasy points. The Patriots will be challenging the Raiders to keep up on the scoreboard, so this is a great chance to see a ceiling game for Carr. What can he do in this spot? If he fails again, he is moving down. If he can keep pace, maybe we move him up.

SUNDAY NIGHT

PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS

I typically don’t like to take leaps of faith in high profile games with lots of studs, but here we go. Mack Hollins has seen his snap count leap over the past three games, from the 15% range to the near 50% range. Couple that with his explosiveness at over 19 yards per reception, and we have a recipe for a coming out party on a big stage.

Well, I thought we had all agreed that Dak Prescott was a stud, and then he struggled without Ezekiel Elliot. So what happens this week when he faces a weak passing defense? Can he spread the ball around and get this team back in rhythm? Admittedly, part of that was due to injuries on the offensive line. I’m ready to consider him a true pivot because an elite quarterback should be able to overcome things like that.

MONDAY NIGHT

ATLANTA AT SEATTLE

I’ve been writing about Austin Hooper for a bit now and don’t see myself stopping as long as he keeps up this trend. He is an integral part of the offense at this point, and I believe that he is providing the spark that the team needed. He has a ton of room to grow as Julio continues to age.

Paul Richardson, we barely knew ye. Blowing up in weeks seven and eight, he has been a non-factor in the two games since. What do we make of him? I want to love him. I lied, I do love him. The problem is that without a real ground game and with so many viable weapons on offense, Richardson is unlikely to have the consistency needed to merit his value. Oh, what could have been.

RECAP

• Author
• Recent Posts

Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

Latest posts by Trevor Bucher (see all)

• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017