Dynasty ADP Report: First Round Fallers

Ryan McDowell Posted On November 18, 2017

It feels like I blinked and the fantasy football regular season is nearly over. The long wait of the off-season is only made worse by the suddenness of the NFL’s regular season action, but as the season nears the attention of many dynasty owners turns to the upcoming season.

As the off-season gets closer and closer by the week, I’ve been spending more time thinking about how the dynasty value of many key players will change in the crucial upcoming weeks and months.

To gather some insight from the dynasty community, I took to Twitter. I began by asking which players are most likely to fall out of the first round of dynasty ADP in 2018.

Here is the pre-season dynasty ADP top 12 from DLF.

Name a player you are confident will not be in the top 12 in 2018. pic.twitter.com/XxempRoNIV

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 14, 2017

With only twelve players to choose from, a couple of players stood out as clear “favorites” to fade.

Amari Cooper, WR OAK

52 votes

After back to back 1,000 yard seasons to begin his career, Oakland’s Cooper has taken a step back in 2017. He began the season with multiple end zone targets, which had been lacking in his first two seasons, but has mostly struggled since, other than a 40+ fantasy point explosion against division rival Kansas City in week seven. Cooper is currently the WR31 on the season and will really need to pick up the pace to hit the 1,000-yard mark for a third time.

All of this will certainly cause Cooper to fall in our dynasty ADP. In fact, it already has. After hitting a high point as the third overall player near the end of last season, Cooper’s stock has slowly fallen to his current ADP of 9, making him the WR5.

With well over 100 responses to this question, Cooper was the most popular choice by a wide margin and with many players gaining value, Cooper’s age and draft pedigree might not even keep him in the first-round range.

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Melvin Gordon, RB LAC

37 votes

As the final player in the pre-season ADP used in this query, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon was the easy choice to fall from the top 12 in our upcoming 2018 dynasty ADP. Actually, Gordon has already fallen. As of the most recent November data, Gordon is the thirteenth overall player with an ADP of 14.

The Chargers back has certainly had a good season in 2017 as a follow-up to his breakout 2016 campaign, but the young running backs making up the rookie class of 2017 are still making up ground quickly, and in some cases, bypassing Gordon in value and ADP.

Even if he can keep up his current RB5 pace, Gordon is likely to remain outside of the top twelve simply due to the suddenly deep crop of top tier backs. To be honest, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gordon even fell out of the second round by the middle of the off-season.

Michael Thomas, WR NOS

12 votes

After Cooper and Gordon, there was a huge gap until the next vote-getter, Saints second-year receiver Michael Thomas. The New Orleans offense has morphed into a run focused offense this season as running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara make up the top backfield in the game. Because of this prolific running offense, quarterback Drew Brees has seen his numbers dip.

While the Saints aren’t passing as much as they have in past season, Thomas is maintaining his numbers thanks to being the only consistent target for Brees. The Saints dealt away Brandin Cooks in the off-season and Willie Snead has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league. Complementary receivers Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman have flashed, but neither has stepped up as a real threat on a weekly basis, which leaves Thomas.

With rumors Brees and the Saints could part ways this off-season, it does make sense to have some concern about Thomas’ chance to maintain his lofty first round value.

Julio Jones, WR ATL

9 votes

Glancing at his cumulative numbers this season, it looks like Falcons star receiver Julio Jones is having another huge season, currently ranking as the WR13 on the year and on pace for over 1,200 yards. In reality though, Jones has only one week as a WR1 so far this year and he’s the only receiver among the current top 25 fantasy wideouts with fewer than two touchdowns.

Of course, Jones is not alone. The entire Falcons offense has predictably regressed after their Super Bowl run in 2016. Jones is at the age in which many dynasty players begin to get scared off, but it should be clear he’s not done yet.

Mike Evans, WR TB

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

AJ Green, WR CIN

3 votes

Receiving three votes, this is an interesting trio. Considered one of the top young receivers in the game, it would be a massive upset if Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans fell out of the first round in 2018, especially considering as of our most recent data, he’s tied for the top overall spot.

Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell is enjoying yet another monster season and (knock on wood) has yet to suffer any injury issue or face a suspension due to off-field transgressions. Bell does face a question about which team he’ll suit up for in 2018 and if that team is not Pittsburgh, his value could take a slight hit.

Finally, I was surprised to see Green receiving only three votes in response to this question. That’s no knock on his play as he currently ranks as the WR5 for the season, but Green faces the same age related possible drop as Jones. While the respondents favor Jones as the “faller,” I think Green is the more likely candidate.

David Johnson, RB ARI

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

2 votes

Despite his early-season injury that will almost definitely end his season, electric running back David Johnson has maintained his lofty value and few expect that to change as he drew just two votes. The Cardinals offense and their entire team could be in for major changes as quarterback Carson Palmer, top receiver Larry Fitzgerald and head coach Bruce Arians could all depart following the season. I don’t think any of those potential moves bode well for DJ, but he should still easily stick inside the top twelve.

According to the latest dynasty ADP here at DLF, Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins was one of the top risers among the top draft picks, moving from borderline first round pick up to the third overall player. Since that data collection though, Hopkins lost his quarterback Deshaun Watson and in turn, a slight bit of value. While that will hurt his short-term production, Watson will be back next year and it is difficult to see Hopkins falling outside of the top five, let alone the top twelve.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Antonio Brown, WR PIT

1 vote

Of the 100+ votes received to this question, only one each went to Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Although Brown is older than both previously mentioned Jones and Green, he has also been a more consistent and high-level producer, finishing as the WR1 based on fantasy points per game in each of the past three seasons and sits there again in 2017. There is the potential for gun slinging quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to retire following the season, but Brown has no flaws of his own.

The same can’t be said for Dallas second-year back Elliott, who is currently serving a six-game ban for off-field misconduct. While the missed games don’t really have a major effect on Zeke’s dynasty value, the threat of further suspension should worry dynasty players and Cowboys fans. With that said, Elliott should certainly remain among the top twelve players drafted throughout the off-season.

Odell Beckham, WR NYG

0 votes

It is fitting that the only player receiving no votes in this exercise is the same who has been atop our dynasty ADP for over 18 months running, Giants receiver Odell Beckham. Even a season-ending ankle injury couldn’t knock OBJ from the top spot, as he tied Evans for that honor in November. While I could see Evans, Hopkins or one of the many talented running backs overtaking OBJ as the top player in our data, there is almost no chance he fades out of the top twelve.

In the next edition of this series, I’ll take a look at another Twitter question focused on players that are 2018 first-round locks.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.